The US consumer sentiment helps the national currency

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The scenario we described earlier is coming true. Instead of following the risk on/off principle, the currency market is moving on the difference of economic and monetary policy forecasts. The first scenario, which dominated before the crisis and the first years after it, presupposes weakening of USD against the background of stronger global economic growth. Very often the US statistics serve as the main sign of such strengthening and the major driver. Now the situation is a bit different. Strengthening of the labour market, growth of stock indices and multiyear highs of Consumer Confidence Index don’t let you automatically consider the more…

Spain takes Italy’s investors

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

All that Italy didn’t get went to Spain. Here we speak about the debt auction that was held in these countries on Wednesday and Thursday accordingly. EURUSD reacted accurately to the markets’ message. If on Wednesday it was decline due to the low investor demand, yesterday the single currency was brought back nearly to the same levels: it’s again trading a bit above 1.30. Yet, it’s worth mentioning that weakness of the dollar also contributed to sales of the euro. It arose on the decreased concerns that the high demand of the US households would boost price growth. As we see more…

Cuts won’t hurt

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The single currency is in demand now,  yet remains at 1.3050, the low hit early this year . At this level the pair was trading in the first days of January  and returned there at the beginning of the week on disappointing results of the Italian elections. As has already been mentioned, the pair is more likely to grow than fall in the long run, however in the near term it is still possible that 1.30 will be tested. Apparently, it is an important stage in the struggle between bears and bulls, which will determine the further fate of the pair. more…

Asynchrony of markets

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The payrolls were somewhat dubious. On the one hand, the January data proved to be worse than expected, but on the other hand the rates of many previous months were revised up. Thus, it turned out that a year ago, in January 2012, the US labour market grew by 311K, while in January 2013 it added just 157K, i.e. twice as little. This growth rate lags behind the natural population growth, so it’s not surprising that the unemployment should rise from 7.8% to 7.9%. The earnings keep growing at a pace slightly higher than the inflation rate, demonstrating 2.1% for earnings more…

The US economic downturn. The worst is yet to come

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The bulls finally broke through 1.35 yesterday and pushed the pair up by almost a figure. Already at the end of the New York session there were bold attempts to break through 1.36, but it wasn’t that easy. Today the pair feels like correcting the preceding growth, now being at 1.3550. The market participants seem to be indifferent to the economic news. Neither the favourable report on the US employment by ADP nor the dreadful GDP statistics put an end to the uptrend.  First, there was good news from Europe – the consumer sentiment and business confidence got better. The index more…