Technical vs fundamental analysis

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The bears keep the market under vigilant control. The attempts of the single currency to recover and get above 1.31 have failed. This level is the start of Friday’s selling, which eventually brought EURUSD to 1.2990. Then, the second fall below the 200-day MA is also of big importance and is likely to increase the camp of bears. Those, who staked for growth, can be happy that the month and quarter were closed above 1.30. Yet, the main fight for the levels and trends for the coming weeks will take place only closer to the end of this trading week. On more…

Close to free fall

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

USD is still on the offensive, with the active phases of its growth falling on the EU and US sessions. On Friday evening the euro was falling under its own weight, triggering a wave of stop-orders. As a result, on Friday instead of the traditional consolidation we saw the biggest drop over the week. This week started with a downward gap below 1.31.  If technical analysis is true, the descent will continue with the next probable stop at 1.3000/10. However, bears shouldn’t hurry with staking for decline as close to 1.3070 there is the 200-day MA, which can turn out to more…

Inflation slowdown vs bubble risk

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The dollar keeps retreating, and stock exchanges across the globe are hitting record levels.  Thus, S&P once again set a new historic record, MSCI is finishing April with a 4.4% growth, which is the best rate since June 2012. And TOPIX is heading for April’s end with the best results for the month since 1999. This optimism is wholly rooted in unevenness of the US economic growth. While consumption and the housing market  are doing well, inflation remains low. Besides, this problem is acute both for Europe and United States. The Preliminary CPI for Germany, which was released yesterday, showed that more…

Don’t buy into the rumours

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Almost all the economists surveyed by Bloomberg (48 out of 49) expect expansion of the QE programme. Many believe that this measure will compensate the size of the expiring Operation Twist. It means that the market is now in anticipation of the asset purchase programme being extended from $40bln up to $85bln monthly. This turn of events is quite possible and we spoke about that before (remember our comments after the payrolls), however it has already been built into the rates and therefore is of little interest now. There is one more variant, also worth of considering. A couple of weeks more…

Do the markets really believe that QE won’t be extended?

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Friday’s US payrolls were quite favourable. They showed a 146K growth against everybody’s expectations that the storm would spoil the statistics and wouldn’t let the indicator go above 100K. Yet, the report was not all positive – last month’s data were revised down (from 171K down to 138K). The decrease in the work force looks disturbing. This is exactly the factor, which helped the official unemployment rate drop from 7.9% to 7.7%. Yet, it will hardly arouse any strong optimism in the market. America is still suffering long-term unemployment: on average jobseekers cannot find a job for about 40 weeks (a more…