EUR/usd
The single currency was suffering the pressure of negative news for most part of the day yesterday. The morning sentiment dominated the markets all day long: the exchanges reduced their stakes in the risky assets on the concerns that France would change the leader, the Netherlands wouldn't ratify the fiscal compact treaty and the situation in Australia would change for the worse. All that created a rather unfavourable picture where only safe assets were in demand. As for the fiscal compact, here the things are even in a sadder state. The problem is not only with the Netherlands; France, if ruled by a new leader, may also reject the fiscal compact or insist on the reconsideration of the terms. Moreover, Jens Weidmann, the head of the Bundesbank, also all of a sudden opposed Merkel's stance on the issue. So, new gaps crop up here and there in the European cohesion. In addition, the data on economic activity leave much to be desired. The euro-Zone Flash PMI Composite fell from 49.1 down to 47.4. Eventually, this indicator has been below the 50 point for 7 consecutive months. By contrast, services in Germany are gaining momentum. But there isn't much to hope for – this is not the case when Germany will be able to save the whole region. Most likely, the activity will significantly weaken in the coming months. Today the US New Home Sales figure will be of interest. It is supposed that the indicator will manage to recoup the last month's decline. The CB Consumer Confidence indicator is on the contrary unlikely to show favourable figures for April. As forecasted, it will come in at 69.9 against the previous figure of 70.2. During Asian trading the euro received support at 1.3120 and is now trading at 1.3170 as a day ago.
GBP/USD
The sterling proved to be stronger than expected. It managed to recoup its recent losses by the middle of the day, upon which the bulls took the situation in hand and brought the pair back above 1.61. Today the trading is held at 1.6130. Will the pair really manage to storm and take the 1.6170 level? If true, this level could become the highest since last year's September. By analogy, the purchases of the sterling for the euro continue. The pair is rewriting the local lows and by now has already reached 0.8160. Turning to today's news releases, Public Sector Net Borrowing figures will be of interest. As expected, they will stay at the same level as a year ago. What about the budget consolidation? Osborne was perfectly good at economizing last year.
gold
For the last seven trading sessions Gold has been gradually declining and now is again flirting with the monthly lows in the 1635 area. Except for a few sharp fluctuations in one and the other direction, the trend can be called descending – the purchases have been lasting steadily for almost 2 months. Since September Gold has been trading flat with the lower boundary passing through the 1530 level.
AUD/USD
The aussie's behaviour looks pretty similar to that of Gold's. The currency has also been in the downward channel for almost 2 months. A couple of weeks ago the Australian dollar made some attempts to reverse the situation. The pair even demonstrated a kind of break through the narrow descending channel, but it proved to be false. The quotes again went back to the area of lows. Yesterday the Aussie sank below 1.03. Later it attempted to recover, but the Consumer Price Index dispelled all the hopes. In the first quarter CPI grew just by 0.1% against the expected 0.7%. The inflation has shrunk from 3.1% y/y to 1.6% y/y over just one quarter. It's like crashing down slap-bang. RBA will cut the rate in May and will probably do it again in June.
