EUR/usd
At the press-conference last evening Bernanke announced that the Fed would probably start the stimulus rollback later this year. Let's be honest. Was there anyone in the market who didn't believe that this scenario was possible? Numerous surveys show that the main question is not if the rollback will be held this year, but when. The market reaction was definite: to purchase dollars. The single currency was pushed down by almost 1.5 figures from above 1.3415 to 1.3260. Moreover, by the beginning of trading in Europe selling had begun again and by now the currency has hit a daily low at 1.3234. This sharp reaction of the market looks a bit surprising. If we treat it as a correction of the growth from early May, the pair should be awaited at 1.3180, though this already will be a serious claim to continue the decline to 1.28, thus cancelling out all the ascent, which has been expected to take EUR to 1.36. The commodity markets were also moving in favour of the dollar. But we'll dwell on this below. Today the rates can be influenced (though at a less degree) by the publication of Preliminary PMI for the key EU countries.
GBP/USD
Chasing the dollars the British pound feels worse even than the euro. One of the reasons for this weakness is the release of the MPC Meeting Minutes. They've showed that the number of doves in the Committee hasn't changed. As before, three members, including the resigning head of the BOE, Mervyne King, voted for QE extension. In his speech last evening, which was unofficially called parting, King again called for the extension of the stimulus programme, which in his opinion will have no impact on inflation.
gold
Gold managed to break through 1340 and is now trading at the lows which were last seen two months ago and before that only in early 2011. Will Gold manage to drop below 1300? If so, this level will mark recoupment of half the growth, which followed the acute phase of the financial crisis. It's better to stand away from Gold now, despite the fact that it is at the levels attractive for buying. The metal can be too volatile.
oil
Oil suffered a heavy attack as well, the main part of it fell on the beginning of trading on Thursday. As has already been mentioned, Oil feels quite unsteady above 98. Since we don't consider yesterday's speech of Bernanke to be “the beginning of the end”, we expect that from the current 97the black gold will decline to its 200-day MA (close to 92). Or in case of heavier selling, it is quite possible that it will fall to 85.
