Geopolitics puts pressure on Europe

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The portfolio rebalancing and demand for the EU currencies were interrupted yesterday by Kiev’s accusations that Russia had active forces in Ukraine and helped the separatists. The UN believes that over 1000 of soldiers can be located on the territory of the neighbouring state. Such accusations imply further aggravation of the conflict. The stocks of the Russian corporations  and the ruble lost about 2 % yesterday afternoon, affecting the EU indices and currencies. Thus, EURUSD went on the defensive off the intraday high of 1.3220 and closed the day at 1.3180. Thursday’s low makes 1.3158 and it is less than 10 more…

US statistics pose a threat to USD

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The US stock market managed to hit a fresh global high, but the trading range was rather narrow, which spoke about moderate trading volumes. At the time when the market reaches new round levels it gets flooded by retail investors, while corporate investors start lock in their profits. We tend to think that the latter are much stronger, so at the end of the month and before the beginning of the new financial year we expect portfolio rebalancing of various funds and financial companies. And it means that the trends which formerly dominated the markets will be corrected. EURUSD may gain more…

USD’s rally to pause at the end of the month

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The US stock market feels more and more confident at a new level. S&P 500 has exceeded 2000 and the global asset market reached the capitalization of 66trln, as calculated by Bloomberg. Before the global financial crisis appreciation of the stock markets often turned out to be USD’s decline and strengthening of the currencies in the developing countries, which also affected EUR and the pound. Though the pound in theory can follow this very tendency against growing chances of the rate increase earlier than in the USA (see below), the euro’s recent weakness has been quite reasonable. And don’t say that more…

EUR is kept off the levels above 1.32

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The single currency didn’t manage to recover yesterday. EURUSD was below 1.32 almost all day long yesterday, though the major rivals of the single currency felt much better. Besides, S&P 500 crossed the level of 2000, which was a significant moment for the markets. The index didn’t move far from this level and went on the defensive right after hitting the level. As we mentioned yesterday, the initial weakness of the euro was maintained by the divergence between the US and EU monetary policies, once again emphasized by the comments of the Fed’s and ECB’s governors in Jackson Hole. But further more…

USD’s across-the-board rally

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The single currency keeps falling against the dollar. The governors of the world’s global CBs in their speeches only emphasized the divergence between the US and EU policies, whereas Madame Yellen was less mild about the monetary policy prospects mainly due to the rather favourable employment statistics in the recent months. Of course, here we should take into account that the strongest data were on the employment/unemployment rate, while the earnings growth and participation rate were obviously far from perfect. But this way or another the EU affairs are much worse. If the US unemployment shrank by 3.8%, the EU one more…