FOMC’s caution puts pressure on USD

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The mild Yellen has remained her own self. Against our expectations that FOMC would learn a lesson from the financial crisis and would choose another policy for the Fed, it treated the macroeconomic forecasts with great caution after the poor beginning of the year. The long-term GDP forecasts were slightly revised down. Though at the same time the spread between the rates increased, thus reflecting a more hawkish mood than earlier. The markets preferred not to focus on the last moment, seeing only caution regarding the future measures. The markets got quiet about the possible acceleration of tapering and approach of more…

Why the Fed should by tougher

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The US inflation stats came as an unpleasant surprise for the dollar-bears yesterday. It turned out that consumer prices in May grew by 0.4%, which is twice as much as expected. The annual inflation instead of staying at 2.0% grew to 2.1%. Of course, it is too early to speak about the radical change of the situation, however now the Fed surely has less space for maneuver. In accordance with the classic economic rules, increased consumer activity has led to faster price growth. Apparently, in the coming months we’ll see much of this. The seven meager years after the subprime mortgage more…

Abe’s third arrow

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Though the beginning of the day was far from good, the single currency nevertheless grew against the dollar in the course of the day. This morning a fresh tide of growth helped the pair go up to 1.3586. It is a bit above the high set at the end of the previous week, which speaks about bulls’ success in winning back their positions. Their morale should be boosted by the hints of different ECB’s officials at scanty chances of further steps from the Bank.  We hear hints that the ECB will resume bond purchasing to its balance sheet at the very more…

EUR is sold while growing

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The euro’s shy attempts to recoup its losses on Friday faced a serious obstacle. While there’s no clear-cut downtrend in the pair, bulls don’t seem to be very strong either. The situation looks as though below its 200-day MA the euro was sold on upward bounces instead of being purchased on the dips as it has been in the previous months. If only bulls were as strong as before, they would, most likely, take advantage of the poor US statistics, released last week. Thus, Thursday’s publication of the retail sales data reported growth by 0.3% in May against the expected 0.5%-0.7%. more…

EUR feeds stock growth

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The euro is losing ground. The tiny brook of the ECB’s liquidity is quietly doing what it should. During the initial reaction to the ECB’s news last week there were enough euro-buyers not only to take the pair back, but even to try to get above the 200-day MA (1.3644 at that moment). Anyway, Friday and this week will dot the i’s and cross the t’s. Even skeptics, asserting that the ECB’s measures have a very small effect, have to admit that in contrast to the trend for toughening in the CBs of other developed countries the European policy looks more more…