FOMC faces headwinds

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

USD fell under pressure yesterday after the release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes in October. Then the Committee stopped bond purchases, so market participants expected to see the discussion if it was reasonable in the minutes. Among the voting members there was only one dissident – Narayana Kocherlakota, who appealed for further QE until inflation reached the target rates. It is an extremely dovish position, but it was long known to the market and so didn’t arouse any surprise. The minutes were remarkable for comments that inflation would remain low for a while despite the large-scale quantitative easing, which was already more…

Good news from Germany helps EUR and stocks

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Thanks to the strong statistics from Germany, the single currency managed to continue forming a short-term uptrend. The German ZEW index has risen to 11.5 in November, which is the first increase of the index since December 2013 and is much above the forecast rate of just 0.9. It is of interest that the Current Situation Index also has grown (often it moves in the opposite direction from the general index). Yet, the growth was very little, just 0.3 points up to 3.5. The ZEW Economic Sentiment for the entire eurozone also proved to be better than expected. In November it more…

EURCHF is close to the line

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The disappointing rates of the Japanese growth would keep putting pressure on the global stock indices but for Draghi’s speech yesterday which brought some relief to the market. The  ECB’s governor again pointed at the readiness to provide more incentives, including bond purchases in case inflation goes below the forecast inflation. These comments boosted demand for stocks of the EU periphery and for stocks around the world as well. Tapering in the US didn’t put an end to the epoch of easy money. Now it is coming from Japan and the eurozone. Moreover, members both of the European and Asian CBs more…

False dip of the greenback

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

USD’s growth at the beginning of the US session last Friday could be easily accounted for by the desire to lock in profits. For that reason market participants selected the first coming macroeconomic report as a cause to lock in profits. The newsfeeds say that they hurried to sell the dollar on the message about  increase in business inventories by 0.3%. But in our opinion, it’s hardly reasonable. This growth of business inventories, in accord with some surveys, met the expectations. Moreover, the news releases before and after the business inventories report were also better than expected. And they were of more…

USD is growing non-stop

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Euro-bulls were disappointed. Those, who bet that the ECB’s differences wouldn’t let Draghi continue with policy easing, proved to be wrong. Yes, we also were of that opinion, so a sharp drop of the single currency from the current levels proved to be a kind of surprise to us as we had expected some consolidation near 1.2500. Besides, the US employment data, which initially had passed unnoticed, again exceeded the expectations. The number of weekly unemployment claims had shrunk by the beginning of November to 278k. Moreover, the number of continuing claims decreased dramatically and hit a multi-year low yesterday. In more…