Don’t scold Japan for no reason

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The dollar has been falling intensely for the recent three weeks, and the last two ones were especially active in this regard. The main reason for that disfavour towards the dollar was seen in a stream of poor news releases, which forced the markets to reconsider the date to start the stimulus rollback. We expected (and continue to expect) that weakening of the dollar will be limited as the major rivals of the US currency (EUR, JPY, GBP) are now having bigger troubles with their economies and their CBs are much farther from  starting the policy toughening cycle. Anyway, in the more…

The market is going for safety instead of USD

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The dissonance between the stock and Forex markets still persists. While the single currency hit a new high since late February, trading already at 1.3350, S&P 500 dropped to the levels of early May. The index futures has been declining for the last three days, thus showing that traders have reappraised the state of the US economy. Over the last couple of weeks there were enough indicators which made investors take off the rose-coloured spectacles. Naturally, against this background Europe is no longer the worst variant. Yet, the last rally has been too long. The reversal for growth began on May more…

EUR broke through 1.33

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Yesterday we once again observed dissonance among the markets. The dollar and stock exchanges were falling at the same time. Each move can be explained, but it’s not very often that you see risk-aversion and purchasing of the European currencies together. The recent dynamics is the reverse of the preceding moves, when against the positive news from the USA the country’s domestic assets were in demand and it was also clear that the Fed was more likely to toughen its policy than the ECB. Last week we got visual evidence that those considerations were a bit exaggerated. The US economy is more…

USD is retreating

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Just as we supposed in our yesterday’s review, the US employment statistics, being close to the market expectations, haven’t produced any influence on the recent trends. In other words, after a short consolidation the dollar has resumed retreating. At the beginning of the EU session today there was another attempt to attack 1.33, but it was repulsed at 1.3290. Already now the pair is trading in the area of its local highs. The latter in their turn are taking us closer to the levels observed last February. The pair’s performance since the end of April has been diametrically opposite to what more…

Uninteresting payrolls

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The US employment report is considered to be one of the most unpredictable publications.  The market consensus is generally built on the basis of a great data spread, and the actual data very often differ much from it. Deep down, the forecasts were rather congested and the actual data proved to be close to the average market expectations. The release showed that employment grew by 175K against the expected 167K. The same with employment change in the private sector- it proved to be 178K against the forecasted 175K. The data were good enough to believe in the normal pace of growth more…