Unpredictability of Forex

EUR/USD

Stock exchanges sighed with relief on the news that Obama and the republican leaders hope to avoid a government default. The recent messages point out that the best thing we can get now is an agreement on a short-term debt ceiling increase to gain time for negotiations. As we saw in the preceding three times, the farther the deadline was the farther the positions of the parties were. Now there are more incentives to look for a compromise to overcome the political crisis. But it is not our case. Thus, the US markets have grown by almost three percents from the more…

Tapering may start already before the year end

EUR/USD

Well, after all Obama has nominated Janet Yellen to head Federal Reserve. This news is not surprising as already for several weeks Yellen has been considered to be the most probable candidate for the post. The markets’ attention was riveted on a different event – the publication of FOMC’s September meeting minutes. As you remember, then the size of the bond-buying programme was kept unchanged despite the warnings about readiness for gradual stimulus rollback. The minutes point out that the Committee sees the need for this measure already before the end of the year. So, it’s all small wonder. Bernanke’s caution more…

Important levels

EUR/USD

Passions are rising. Stock markets displayed their inner nervousness, flinging down out of the slack downtrend. At the end of the US session the stock exchanges showed a decrease by about 1.5% from the intraday highs. Investors regained self-possession already during the Asian session, when the quotes stabilized. As has been often the case recently, the currency market behaves in a different way. The bulls tried to swing EURUSD, which was seen in two attempts to grow to 1.36 late on Tuesday and early on Wednesday. The bulls obviously sought to launch a counterattack to take the pair farther away from more…

Every which way

EUR/USD

It’s not easy to characterize the market reaction when there are neither economic nor news releases. Monday was one of such days. Anyway, there were some things happening under the surface. Risk aversion at the end of trading in the USA provoked falling of stock indices down to the lows since the beginning of September. It is remarkable that the correlation between stock indices and currency markets has completely disappeared. EURUSD is living its own life – yesterday it hit the low of 1.3542, but soon returned to 1.3570 and was trading there for the most part of the day. Those more…

Waiting for the happy end

EUR/USD

Sometimes in films the most dramatic episodes are shown in slow motion so that we feel all the peripeties and depth of the moment. This time it was the same – sticking to its cinematic principles, the States is inching its way into the catastrophe, showing in detail how characters are trying to save themselves as well as the whole world. Yet, in this case events are real, so a happy end cannot be guaranteed. Besides, after the successful rescue in the dying seconds (many quite reasonably believe that politicians will have come to an agreement right by the deadline) life more…