In focus: European CPI and US employment

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last week the euro was under such a strong pressure that even on Friday EURUSD couldn’t escape falling to fresh local lows. The pair sank to 1.3700, which hasn’t been seen since late February. This can be explained by the short-term flight to dollars for portfolio rebalancing, so traditional for the end of the month/quarter. The forces which further came in effect were less powerful, but they were enough for rehabilitation of the single currency. In the afternoon the pair rose to 1.3770 and closed the week at 1.3750. Today is the last trading day of the quarter, so the dollar more…

Closing short positions in commodity currencies

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The euro is still under pressure. The support at 1.3750/60, which had been strong at the beginning of the week, was surrendered by the bulls yesterday. By the way, similar performance is observed in the US stock markets. They are sagging under the burden of rate-increase expectations. However, the dollar cannot start a real rally as there is no unanimity in the FOMC. Evans, for example, expects a rate increase in the second half of 2015.  It somehow contradicts the core market forecast, according to which the rates will be raised in the first half. The dollar is depreciating against the more…

EURUSD has fastened onto strong support

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Obama called Russia a regional power, threatening its neighbours. This statement was treated by the markets as quite tough and promising stronger tension in the region, which eventually caused selling of risky assets at the end of the NY session. The chain-reaction spread further to the markets of the Asian-Pacific region. It contributed to strengthening of the euro and franc, but almost didn’t affect the euro/dollar. The pair has been enjoying support on decline below 1.3800 since the beginning of the week. The press more and more often  mentions ECB’s readiness to ease the policy if the situation gets worse. It’s more…

ECB is ready for unconventional steps, but will hardly take them

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

ECB is ready to take measures not to let the period of extremely low inflation continue. We keep getting messages regarding this. Liikanen, mentioned yesterday, again spoke about possible introduction of negative interest rates to punish the banks, which park money at ECB and don’t issue loans to business and households. Draghi also didn’t specify anything yesterday, promising to ‘do whatever it takes to ensure price stability’. It’s important that Draghi and even Germany’s Weidmann mentioned quantity easing and negative interest rates among the considered measures. The market has already heard something like that before and it’s been long observed that more…

G7 comments push the euro up

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Yesterday G7 leaders signed a joint statement, disapproving Russia’s actions in regard to Ukraine, but at the same time didn’t mention any specific sanctions and left a chance of diplomatic resolving of the conflict open. The markets regarded the statement as quite mild , which helped the single currency recoup the intraday losses. The surge of optimism for a while provoked growth in EURUSD, so as a result the pair jumped from the daily low of 1.3769 up to 1.3875. This considerable scale of growth couldn’t but trigger stop orders, but eventually trading consolidated near 1.3830. Turning to yesterday’s statistics, weakening more…