Futile volatility

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The unemployment statistics proved to be relatively good, but since for the most part they met the expectations, the market didn’t see any significant volatility. The US employers increased the number of jobs by 192K in March against the consensus forecast of 199K. Against expectations, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, but this is not bad news as the participation rate grew from 63.0% to 63.2%. Average weekly hours grew more than expected, from 34.3 to 34.5 hr. The current rate already corresponds to the average pre-crisis rates, so we can already speak about returning to the normal workweek schedule more…

Draghi did the right thing

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Fortunately we were mistaken about Draghi yesterday. His comments on the rate decision and answers to journalists’ questions made it clear that the ECB is ready for action. As opposed to the press-conference in March, Draghi didn’t sound optimistic. On the contrary he pointed out that the inflation slowdown proved to be an unpleasant surprise for the Committee and said that deflation or even a long period of low inflation is a very dangerous thing, which the Bank is going to combat. He added that various unconventional measures  (expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet via asset purchases, rate cuts and even more…

Don’t wait for Draghi to be mild

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

We have a new record of S&P 500 and a new tide of pressure on the single currency. The pair is obviously prevented from going above 1.3800. It was being pushed away from this level since the very beginning of the EU session and after the release of the Final GDP data the euro selling became even more methodical. The final rates proved to be worse than the initial estimates, showing the growth of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of the previous year and the annual rate of 0.4% against the initial 0.3%. France and Germany published their final estimates already more…

Uneven demand for risk

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The S&P 500 BMI closed Tuesday at the record-high level. This impressive performance was a result of the easing geopolitical tension – Russia and the USA seem to have started a dialogue, which promises a dialogue between Russia and the EU in the near future, and then between the former and Ukraine. At the same time we are getting good news from the US corporations. As expected, business activity is getting back to normal after the cold winter months. In the meantime, the EU statistics were not bad either. The data on the German labour market reflected another decrease in the more…

Analysts against traders

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

More often it’s quite the opposite, but yesterday analysts gained the upper hand over traders. A couple of minutes before the release of the EU inflation statistics, the pair came under severe pressure. It tumbled down by 15 pips to 1.3745. Then it was reported about sharper inflation slowdown than expected and the euro/dollar dropped already to 1.3720. However, the impulsive reaction of traders (or were these robo traders, working on news?) to the weaker-than-expected data held just for a moment. Further the single currency got some support on the analysts’ comments that the slowdown from 0.7% y/y to 0.5% y/y more…