May 26-30 Forex Market Preview: Key Events & Trading Strategies
Getting ready for this week's market action? You've come to the right spot. Between May 26th and May 30th, 2025, the economic calendar is packed with important data releases and central bank commentary that could significantly impact currency rates. We'll break down each day’s major events, highlight the key currency pairs to watch, and provide clear trade ideas so you can position yourself strategically for the coming week. Let's dive in!
Monday, May 26th, 2025
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
(14:30 GMT)
Forecast: Guidance on eurozone inflation and trade risks | Previous: "Disinflation remains on track"
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, DAX
Lagarde’s address comes on the heels of the ECB’s fourth consecutive rate cut (deposit rate of 2.75%) and coincides with EUR/USD testing resistance at 1.1300. Markets will watch closely to see if recent euro appreciation and escalating US-EU trade tensions—with tariffs of 25% on EU imports—cause a pause in easing policy. With core CPI at 2.6% YoY and Q1 GDP growth at 0.4%, traders are eager for clarity on the balance between disinflation risks and trade-related economic headwinds. A hawkish tone from Lagarde could reverse EUR/USD's 2.5% month-to-date decline.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD faces immediate resistance at 1.1300 (50-day SMA) with support at 1.1210 (21-day SMA). A daily close above 1.1300 could target the April high at 1.1571, while failure may result in a retest of 1.1100.
Trade Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on a sustained break above 1.1300
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1215
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1571
Tuesday, May 27th, 2025
US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
(12:30 GMT)
Actual: 0.0% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
Impact: USD/JPY, S&P 500, Copper
Falling core orders suggest weakening business investments despite March’s headline jump of 9.2% (revised from 7.5%). Adjustments for transport costs have stabilized orders while uncertainties over tariffs and capital spending remain elevated. A miss in the data may put pressure on the USD against safe-haven currencies like the JPY, especially as traders factor in a 68% chance of a Fed rate cut in July. The gap between volatile orders and tepid manufacturing further pressures USD bulls.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY is consolidating near a year-to-date high of 158.00. A breakdown below the May 20 low of 143.20 could set a target of 140.50, while resistance currently holds at 144.05.
Trade Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY if it falls below 143.20
📍 Stop-loss: 144.05
🎯 Take-profit: 140.50
US Durable Goods Orders m/m
(12:30 GMT)
Actual: 9.2% | Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 0.9%
Impact: USD/CAD, Nasdaq 100, Industrial Metals
The headline jump of 9.2% (revised down to 7.5% post-report) reflects record Boeing aircraft orders rather than broad economic strength. Markets will scrutinize any subsequent revisions to gauge the resilience of U.S. manufacturing amidst rising protectionism and 25% tariffs on autos. Although stronger headlines might spur short-term USD gains, persistent weakness in non-defense capital goods (down 0.3% MoM) signals underlying demand issues that pose risks for USD bulls.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.4000 (May high). A breakout above this level could drive the pair to 1.4050, while support is seen at 1.3890 (100-day SMA).
Trade Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on a breakout above 1.3890
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3810
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4050
Wednesday, May 28th, 2025
Australian CPI y/y
(01:30 GMT)
Actual: 2.4% | Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, ASX 200
Australia’s easing inflation, now at 2.4% YoY and below the RBA target range of 2–3%, has reinforced bets on further rate cuts. Weak retail sales (down 0.1% MoM) and a 0.5% decrease in construction data are pressuring the AUD toward the 0.6450 support level. With GDP growth at 0.6% in Q4 2024 and falling housing prices (down 1.2% MoM in major cities), policymakers face a dilemma between stabilizing growth and containing inflation, adding to bearish momentum for AUD pairs.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6452 (200-day SMA); a break below 0.6356 (May low) could drive the pair toward 0.6305 (100-day SMA).
Trade Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD if it drops below 0.6356
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6400
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6305
Thursday, May 29th, 2025
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
(02:00 GMT)
Actual: 3.50% | Forecast: 3.50% | Previous: 3.75%
Impact: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZX 50
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates at 3.50% for the fifth consecutive time as global trade risks persist. Should policymakers signal further easing, the NZD might weaken further with USD/NZD testing a low of 0.6050. With inflation around 2.2% per annum—near the midpoint of the target range—the central bank appears to have little room for maneuver. Traders will watch the Monetary Policy Statement closely to determine if rate cuts may extend into H2 2025.
Technical Setup
NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.5965 (200-day SMA); a breakdown below 0.5895 could indicate a dovish turn.
Trade Idea
🎯 Sell NZD/USD at 0.5895
📍 Stop-loss: 0.5920
🎯 Take-profit: 0.5846
FOMC Meeting Minutes
(18:00 GMT)
Impact: Gold (XAU/USD), USD Index, Tech Stocks
Minutes will shed light after March's stagnant Core PCE (0.0% MoM). Hawkish language may strengthen the USD, putting pressure on gold below the $3,347 resistance level. Historically, the release of FOMC minutes increases Treasury volatility by 3x normal levels, implying outsized moves across rate-sensitive assets. Traders will listen for debates about weighing tariff-driven inflation (25% auto tariffs) versus growth risks – specifically, whether members view recent USD weakness as a disinflationary sign or a risk to financial stability.
Technical Setup
Gold (XAU/USD) holds above $3,156 support. A break above the $3,347 resistance could target a move to the May high at $3,500.
Trade Idea
🎯 Buy XAU/USD above $3,347
📍 Stop-loss: $3,270
🎯 Take-profit: $3,500
Thursday, May 29th, 2025
US Prelim GDP q/q
(12:30 GMT)
Actual: -0.3% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 2.4%
Impact: USD/CHF, US 10-Year Yield, Crude Oil
Q1 contraction recorded its first decline ever since 2024 due to sluggish consumer spending (-0.1% MoM). The 5.0 percentage point pullback from imports reflects firms reacting to tariffs, causing inventory distortions that may reverse in Q2. A negative read could rekindle bets on Fed rate cuts, potentially pushing USD/JPY toward 155.00. Structural trends (tariff hedging vs. an actual demand collapse) will determine whether markets view this as a one-off anomaly or a sign of a recession.
Technical Setup
USD/CHF tests resistance at 0.8400 (triple bottom breakdown zone). A reversal below 0.8040 aligns with seasonal weaknesses.
Trade Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CHF below 0.8400
📍 Stop-loss: 0.8450
🎯 Take-profit: 0.8000
US Unemployment Claims
(12:30 GMT)
Actual: 227K | Forecast: 230K | Previous: 229K
Impact: EUR/USD, Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Small-Caps
Unemployment claims that are near record levels for 2025 indicate a softening labor market. Continuous readings above 225K could heighten recession fears, which would negatively impact cycle-sensitive assets such as industrial metals. The Department of Government Efficiency's cancellation of $32B in contracts introduces asymmetric risks – while current claims remain low, large-scale layoffs combined with delayed benefit eligibility may distort future data.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD tests support at 1.1160 (daily pivot). A break above the 1.1300 resistance level could push the pair to 1.1550.
Trade Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD above 1.1300
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1250
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1550
Friday, May 30th, 2025
German Prelim CPI m/m
(All Day GMT)
Actual: 0.4% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.2%
Impact: EUR/GBP, DAX, EU Carbon Permits
Rising energy costs have pushed the headline CPI higher, though core CPI remains steady at 2.6% YoY. EUR/GBP might test resistance at 0.8600 if the data beats expectations, even as ECB rate cuts limit further gains. The 0.41% MoM figure reflects base effects from last year's phase-out of energy subsidies, which temporarily spiked inflation and complicated the ECB's exit strategy from an accommodative policy.
Technical Setup
EUR/GBP faces descending resistance at 0.8520 (50% Fibonacci level) with support at 0.8440 (78.6% Fibonacci level).
Trade Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/GBP if it rises above 0.8460
📍 Stop-loss: 0.8450
🎯 Take-profit: 0.8600
US Core PCE Price Index m/m
(12:30 GMT)
Actual: 0.0% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.5%
Impact: Nasdaq, Treasury Yields, USD/CNH
A stagnant MoM reading in the Core PCE supports the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance. While equity markets might rally if disinflation resumes, tariff risks remain. With the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge holding steady at 0.0% despite 4.1% YoY wage growth, there is concern over shrinking profit margins—which could signal either a decline in corporate pricing power or temporary relief in input costs.
Technical Setup
USD/CNH faces resistance at 7.25 with support at 7.20 (daily pivot).
Trade Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CNH if it falls below 7.20
📍 Stop-loss: 7.22
🎯 Take-profit: 7.14
Note: All times are in GMT. Trade ideas are provided for educational purposes only; always monitor price action for confirmation before entering any trade.
