All Eyes on the Fed and RBA as Key Inflation Numbers Hit the Wires
Want to stay one step ahead of next week’s moves in FX? This outlook breaks down the key red‑folder events from November 24 to 28 and how they could shake major currency pairs.
Day by day, you’ll see which data points really matter, which pairs to watch, and how to start thinking about potential setups before the market opens.
Monday, November 24, 2025
German ifo Business Climate
09:00 GMT
Forecast: 88.6 | Previous: 88.4
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY
The ifo Business Climate Index tracks how German companies feel about current conditions and where they think things are heading. November's forecast of 88.6 is barely up from 88.4, but there's cautious optimism underneath. October saw the expectations component hit 91.6—its best level since February 2022—while present conditions actually slipped. That gap tells you momentum is patchy. A strong print lifts the euro because it takes pressure off the ECB to keep easing.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Support at 1.1495-1.1513 (November lows). Resistance at 1.1590-1.1660. Downtrend below 200-day SMA; break below 1.1495 targets 1.1400.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on ifo beat above 88.8 targeting 1.1560-1.1580
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1490
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1580
Tuesday, November 25, 2025
US PPI Data Release
13:30 GMT
Core PPI m/m (Previous: -0.1%) | PPI m/m (Previous: -0.1%)
Core Retail Sales m/m (Previous: 0.7%) | Retail Sales m/m (Previous: 0.6%)
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD
This delayed September data finally came out after the shutdown. Core PPI matters because it shows factory-level costs that eventually hit consumers. A positive reading backs the dollar and keeps "higher for longer" rates on the table. Retail sales track consumer spending, which is 70% of GDP. Beat forecasts and you knock down those December Fed cut odds (sitting at 30% now).
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support at 155.50-156.00. Resistance at 157.50-158.00 (intervention risk).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on hot PPI/retail data at 155.80
📍 Stop-loss: 155.40
🎯 Take-profit: 157.50
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Australian CPI y/y
00:30 GMT
Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.5%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD
Australia's Q3 inflation jump to 3.2% caught markets off guard. The RBA's trimmed mean gauge—what they actually care about—went to 3.0%, right at the top of the target band. Electricity bills spiked after subsidies ended, pushing inflation past expectations. That stickiness has completely shifted rate cut bets. Markets barely price November easing now and push cuts out to May 2026. Strong CPI here keeps the RBA tight longer and props up the Aussie. Soft data brings cut chatter back and drags the currency down.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Support at 0.6445-0.6465. Resistance at 0.6515-0.6535. Break below 0.6445 targets 0.6300-0.6312.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on strong CPI above 3.6% above 0.6480
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6440
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6535-0.6580
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference
01:00 GMT, 02:00 GMT
Official Cash Rate Forecast: 2.25% | Previous: 2.50%
Impact: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD
The RBNZ is widely expected to cut 25bp to 2.25%, wrapping up a 300bp easing cycle that started back in August 2024. Inflation sits at 3.0%—the upper edge of their target—and unemployment's at 5.3%, showing slack in the labor market. Most see this as the end of the line, with no more cuts penciled in for 2026. What matters most is the guidance. Any dovish hints about more easing ahead could sink the kiwi. A hawkish tone saying the cycle's done would support it.
Technical Setup
NZD/USD: Support at 0.5565-0.5585. Resistance at 0.5640-0.5660. Deeply oversold conditions; break below 0.5565 targets 0.5503-0.5458.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell NZD/USD on dovish surprise at 0.5660
📍 Stop-loss: 0.5685
🎯 Take-profit: 0.5540
UK Autumn Forecast Statement
Tentative
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
Chancellor Reeves is dealing with a £20-50B fiscal gap, but Labour's manifesto promises tie her hands on Income Tax, National Insurance, VAT, and Corporation Tax. Talk's centered on Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax tweaks, pension relief changes, and non-dom rules. Capital Economics thinks she'll go for £41.7B in consolidation. A credible budget that tackles the deficit without crushing growth would lift the pound.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3000-1.3040. Resistance at 1.3120-1.3210.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on credible Budget above 1.3120
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3040
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3200-1.3247
US Unemployment Claims
13:30 GMT
Forecast: 230K | Previous: 220K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD
Initial jobless claims dropped to 220K, beating the 230K forecast—a good sign for the labor market post-shutdown. But continuing claims climbed to 1.974M, the highest since 2021. That points to slower hiring and people struggling to find work. Federal worker claims jumped to 5,719 after the shutdown, reflecting the admin chaos. The four-week average at 224,250 shows things are holding steady underneath. Low claims take heat off the Fed to ease and back the dollar by showing the labor market's holding up under tight policy.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3990-1.4000. Resistance at 1.4090-1.4150. Trading within ascending bullish channel; above 1.4020 targets 1.4065.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on low claims below 225K pullback to 1.4000-1.4020
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3960
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4100
US Prelim GDP q/q & Core PCE Price Index m/m
Tentative
Forecast GDP: 3.0% | Previous: 3.8%
Core PCE m/m Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF
Q3 GDP is tracking near 3.0%, bouncing back hard from Q1's -0.5% drop after Q2 got revised up to 3.8%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model sits at 4.2%, hinting at a possible upside surprise. Core PCE inflation's stuck around 2.9-3.1% year-over-year, and month-to-month it's showing prices aren't budging much. Strong GDP paired with elevated PCE cuts those December Fed cut odds (30% right now) and supports the dollar. Weaker GDP with softer PCE brings easing expectations back into play and weighs on the greenback.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Support at 1.1465-1.1513. Resistance at 1.1650-1.1690. Downtrend below 200-day SMA; break below 1.1400 targets 1.1275.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on strong GDP/high PCE at 1.1550
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1590
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1400
Thursday, November 27, 2025
Canadian Current Account Q3
13:30 GMT
Forecast: -14.4B CAD | Previous: -21.2B CAD
Impact: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD
Canada's current account is expected to improve from Q2's brutal -21.2B CAD deficit. Last quarter saw the goods trade deficit balloon by 19.1B to -19.6B as exports collapsed 13.1%. US tariffs in August hammered exports, but November's framework agreement hinting at cuts from 39% to 15% offers some breathing room. A smaller deficit than forecast backs the loonie by showing trade is stabilizing and easing external vulnerability fears.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3970-1.4000. Resistance at 1.4090-1.4155. Trading within ascending bullish channel near 1.4090.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD on strong current account (deficit <-14.4B) at 1.4050-1.4065
📍 Stop-loss: 1.4110
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4000
Friday, November 28, 2025
Canadian GDP m/m
13:30 GMT
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.3%
Impact: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD
September GDP should show a 0.2% monthly bounce after August's -0.3% drop. The bigger picture for Q3 is all over the place—Q2 fell 0.4% after Q1's 0.5% gain, even with inventory stockpiling and a machinery investment jump. Forecasts peg Q3 around 0.8% with Q4 nearly flat, putting full-year 2025 growth near 1.2%. Tariffs and oil extraction limits are dragging on things. GDP above 0.2% strengthens the loonie by easing pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3976-1.3990 (Fibonacci cluster). Resistance at 1.4140. 50-day EMA at 1.3978 provides additional downside support.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on weak GDP below 0.0% pullback to 1.3990-1.4000
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3960
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4100
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
