Dollar Faces Critical Tests as CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales Hit the Wires

Looking to make the most of your forex trades the week of November 10th? You're in the right place. Next week's calendar is loaded with economic releases that should shake up the currency markets. There are real opportunities here if you know where to look.

We’ll take it day by day, highlight the pairs most likely to move, then map out how to position around them.

Monday, November 10, 2025

EUR Sentix Investor Confidence – November

9:30 AM GMT

Forecast: -3.9 | Previous: -5.4
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

The Sentix Investor Confidence index tracks how eurozone investors feel about the economy six months out. The -3.9 reading is worse than the previous -5.4, which points to fresh doubts about growth. Traders pay attention because this data comes out before official GDP numbers. It gives you a snapshot of where investors are positioned, and that directly affects euro strength against the dollar.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Immediate support at 1.1471. Resistance at 1.1663 (pullback resistance aligned with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). A close below 1.1471 could trigger a drop toward 1.1400 psychological support. Trading above 1.1603 would negate bearish setup and target 1.1700.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on breakdown below 1.1549
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1650 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1350 support level

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

GBP Claimant Count Change

07:00 AM GMT

Forecast: 20.3K | Previous: 25.8K
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

The Claimant Count Change tells you how many people are claiming unemployment benefits in the UK each month. The forecast of 20.3K is better than 25.8K, showing jobless claims are growing slower. The Bank of England tracks this to see how much slack is in the economy and whether rates need adjusting. When the number comes in better than expected, sterling tends to rise. Worse numbers push traders toward pricing in BoE rate cuts.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Immediate support at 1.3009 (161.8% Fibonacci extension support level). Resistance at 1.3457 (pullback resistance identified by technical analysis). A close above 1.3257 could trigger a move toward 1.3350 and potentially 1.3400. Breaking below 1.3020 would confirm further downside toward 1.2950.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on better-than-forecast claimant data above 1.3173
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3009 below support zone
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3457 resistance target

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks

03:20 PM GMT

Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 03:20 PM GMT. He's been one of the more dovish voices on the FOMC, pushing for gradual rate cuts. What he says about inflation durability, jobs data, and tariff effects could swing dollar pairs. Keep an eye out for anything about Fed rate cuts in 2026. That kind of signal can shift how the market positions on the USD.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Immediate support at 151.15 (pullback support level). Resistance at 154.45 (swing high resistance marking the 3rd wave target). Hawkish Waller commentary could break above 154.45 and target 155.00-157.00 channel top. Dovish commentary could trigger breakdown below 151.15 toward 150.00 psychological support.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on hawkish Waller commentary breaking above 154.45
📍 Stop-loss: 151.00 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 155.50 extended resistance target

Thursday, November 13, 2025

AUD Labour Market Data – October

12:30 AM GMT

Employment Change - Forecast: 20.3K | Previous: 14.9K
Unemployment Rate - Forecast: 4.4% | Previous: 4.5%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/AUD

Australia's employment numbers are expected to jump to 20.3K from 14.9K. At the same time, unemployment should drop from 4.5% to 4.4%. Both point to a solid labour market, which gives the RBA reason to hold off on cutting rates into 2026. If the data meets or beats expectations, the Aussie dollar should get a boost. Miss on either one and traders will price in faster rate cuts, weighing on AUD.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Immediate support at 0.6447 (swing low support level). Resistance at 0.6614 (overlap resistance marking the potential consolidation breakout point). A close above 0.6560 on both labour data beats could extend gains toward 0.6600-0.6625 (61.8% Fibonacci resistance zone). Breaking below 0.6447 would confirm deterioration toward 0.6350 and 0.5880 long-term targets if both prints disappoint.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on dual labour market beat above 0.6519
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6454 below swing low support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6625 intermediate resistance target

GBP GDP Month-on-Month

07:00 AM GMT

Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

UK GDP is expected to come in flat at 0.0% month-on-month after 0.1% last time. That's a clear slowdown heading into Q4. Flat growth raises questions about stagnation and takes some pressure off the Bank of England to act aggressively. Markets will dig into whether services or production is dragging more. Any negative surprise could trigger heavy selling in sterling.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Immediate support at 1.3009. Resistance at 1.3457.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on 0.0% GDP reading below 1.3100
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3177
🎯 Take-profit: 1.2950 support level

USD CPI Package & Unemployment Claims

Time Tentative

Core CPI M/M - Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
CPI M/M - Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
CPI Y/Y - Previous: 3.0%
Unemployment Claims
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

The big event this week is the US CPI release. Core CPI is forecast to tick up to 0.3% from 0.2%, showing inflation is still sticky thanks to tariffs and housing costs. Headline CPI should ease to 0.2% from 0.3% as energy prices stabilize. You've got a mixed picture: core inflation holding firm while the headline softens. That mix supports the dollar because it keeps the Fed cautious on rate cuts. The year-over-year number matters most. If it stays at or above 3.0%, that's a problem for anyone expecting aggressive cuts in 2026. Unemployment Claims come out at the same time, giving you a read on the labour market. Higher claims point to weakness, lower claims suggest things are holding up.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Core CPI at 0.3% and headline at 0.2% support USD strength, with breakout potential above 154.45. Resistance toward 154.35. Support on weakness at 151.53.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on Core CPI at/above 0.3% breaking above 154.35
📍 Stop-loss: 153.20 below intermediate support
🎯 Take-profit: 155.50 extended resistance target

Friday, November 14, 2025

USD PPI & Retail Sales Package

Time Tentative

Core PPI M/M
PPI M/M
Core Retail Sales M/M
Retail Sales M/M
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Friday brings a four-part data drop covering both inflation and spending. Core PPI tracks wholesale inflation without food and energy, which tends to lead consumer prices down the road. Headline PPI includes everything and shows you total production costs. Core Retail Sales strips out cars and gas to show discretionary spending. Headline Retail Sales covers all consumer spending. Strong numbers on both fronts give the Fed less reason to cut rates quickly, which helps the dollar. Weak prints suggest consumers are feeling the squeeze and inflation is cooling, opening the door for more cuts.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Softer PPI data combined with weak retail sales supports cautious euro strength above 1.1400 targeting 1.1500-1.1550. Resistance at 1.1668 with support at 1.1470.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on soft PPI & retail sales combo above 1.1580
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1524
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1728 resistance level

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.