BoC, RBA, and Fed Take the Stage: What Forex Traders Need to Know
Looking to make the most out of your forex trading next week? You’re in the right place. From November 17 to 21, the calendar is packed with high-impact economic releases—each with the potential to spark significant moves across major currency pairs.
Let’s break it down day by day, highlight what matters most, and set ourselves up with actionable setups and precise trade ideas tailored for the week ahead.
Monday, November 17, 2025
Canadian Consumer Price Index
1:30 PM GMT
CPI m/m: (Previous: 0.1%)
Median CPI y/y: (Previous: 3.2%)
Trimmed CPI y/y: (Previous: 3.1%)
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, commodity currencies
Canada's Consumer Price Index is the Bank of Canada's main inflation gauge for setting policy. Month-over-month readings are expected to hold at 0.1%, but markets will be watching headline and core inflation closely. Are deflationary pressures still easing, or is price stability here to stay within the BoC's target range? The median and trimmed CPI measures matter because they help the central bank separate temporary price swings from real inflation trends. If the reading comes in stronger than expected, the Canadian dollar could get a boost—it would suggest rate cuts might slow down. A weaker print does the opposite, pushing the loonie lower as traders bet on more easing ahead.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD trades within a consolidation phase near 1.4020, bounded by support at 1.3977-1.3985. Resistance at 1.4149. A potential bullish head-and-shoulders pattern has formed with the neckline at 1.4045. A close above 1.4045 opens the path toward 1.4080-1.4090. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.3985 extends declines toward 1.3925 and potentially 1.3850.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on breakabove 1.4045 – anticipating stronger CPI data to support USD strength and limit BoC easing
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3975 – below immediate support zone
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4090 – targeting the H&S target and November highs
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
12:30 AM GMT
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, commodity currencies
The RBA's monetary policy minutes give us a window into how the central bank sees inflation, the labor market, and where rates should go next. With rates already cut to historically low levels, these minutes will show whether board members think more cuts are needed or if they're ready to pause. If the tone is dovish—taking up wage growth moderation and labor market slack—the Australian dollar could take a hit. That signals more cuts are coming. But if the language turns hawkish and defends current policy while flagging inflation worries, the AUD gets support.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD trades near 0.6545 following strength earlier this month. The pair remains below September highs of 0.6683. Immediate support sits at 0.6500, with resistance clustered at 0.6614. The technical picture suggests consolidation within a narrow band, with potential for directional moves depending on RBA sentiment and broader risk appetite.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD on breakdown below 0.6500 – if RBA minutes signal further cuts and economic weakness
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6550 – above current price action
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6420 – targeting monthly support levels
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
AUD Wage Price Index q/q
12:30 AM GMT
Previous: 0.8%
Impact: AUD/USD, commodity currencies
Australia's Wage Price Index tracks how fast wages are growing across the economy, and it's a big inflation signal for the Reserve Bank. Last quarter came in at 0.8%, and markets are expecting some cooling this time around given the RBA's easing cycle and sluggish economic activity. Slower wage growth backs the central bank's dovish stance and strengthens the case for more rate cuts, which would weaken the Australian dollar. But a surprise jump would flip the script—showing inflation pressures are still alive and potentially forcing the RBA to hit pause on cuts. That would support the AUD.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD consolidates around 0.6530 support. A weak wage print could trigger a breakdown toward 0.6480-0.6450. Conversely, strong wage growth above expectations could push the pair toward 0.6600 resistance.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD on any weakness below 0.6500
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6560
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6420
UK Consumer Price Index y/y
7:00 AM GMT
Previous: 3.8%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
The UK CPI is the first major inflation update since the Bank of England's November 7 meeting, where the vote was razor-thin—5-4 to hold rates at 4.0% instead of cutting. Inflation was last at 3.8%, but markets are looking for a move higher toward 2.7%, driven by food prices and administered price hikes. A hotter-than-expected print would give hawkish BoE members more ammunition to resist rate cuts, likely supporting sterling. A softer number would speed up bets on December cuts and weaken the pound. The gap between the actual figure and the forecast matters more than usual here because the voting split was so tight.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD trades near the 1.3200 level with key resistance at 1.3262 (200-day EMA) and the 1.3305 breakout level. The critical 1.3000 pivot remains a psychological support floor. The pair consolidated between 1.3100-1.3300 following the November 5 selloff. A stronger CPI could push GBP/USD toward 1.3305-1.3333, while weaker data opens the door toward testing 1.3000.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on break above 1.3305 – if CPI surprises higher and supports pound strength
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3210 – below consolidation support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3456 – targeting key resistance zone
FOMC Meeting Minutes
7:00 PM GMT
Impact: USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
The Fed's October 28-29 meeting minutes are going to get picked apart line by line, especially after Chair Powell said flat out that "a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is far from it." Markets are pricing in about a 30% chance of a December cut right now, so the minutes will reveal how the committee is wrestling with stubborn inflation, the labor market, and what comes next. If the language is hawkish—emphasizing sticky core inflation and solid growth—expect USD strength across the board. Any dovish surprises would hurt the dollar and lift risk-sensitive currencies.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD trades near 1.1545 under bearish pressure, with resistance at 1.1605-1.1665 and support at 1.1480-1.1400. A hawkish FOMC print could trigger a breakdown toward 1.1435-1.1400, extending the September-November downtrend.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on hawkish FOMC language at 1.1600 – targeting 1.1480-1.1400 support on USD strength
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1650 – above intraday resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1400 – key support level
Thursday, November 20, 2025
US Initial Jobless Claims
Tentative
Impact: USD, USD/JPY, risk-on sentiment
Initial jobless claims keep dominating Fed policy talk because Powell has made it clear the labor market is front and center. The release date is tentative, so there's no specific forecast yet, but traders will be glued to the trend. Rising claims would boost rate-cut expectations, while stable or falling figures would back the hawkish narrative. With the three-week government shutdown now over, we could see a bunch of delayed labor reports drop all at once before the December FOMC meeting—giving us critical clues about where employment is headed.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY; resistance at 155.00. Immediate support sits at 152.84.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY above 155.01
📍 Stop-loss: 153.69 – below intraday support
🎯 Take-profit: 156.50 – key resistance zone
Friday, November 21, 2025
UK Retail Sales m/m
7:00 AM GMT
Previous: 0.5%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, cable sentiment
UK retail sales for the month drop at a time when consumers are being cautious. Budget-related tax concerns and inflation pressures are weighing on spending. Last month's 0.5% growth is expected to soften as households hold off on discretionary purchases ahead of Black Friday and with fiscal policy uncertainty hanging overhead. Weaker retail sales would reinforce the case for Bank of England rate cuts and pressure sterling. But if there's an unexpected rebound, it would suggest consumers are holding up better than thought and dial back December cut expectations.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD could test support at 1.3100-1.3000 on disappointing retail data. The 1.3000 pivot remains psychologically critical for cable, with extended weakness below this level likely to extend losses toward 1.2900.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD below 1.3100 on disappointing retail sales
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3140
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3000 – key psychological level
German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
8:30 AM GMT
German Manufacturing (Previous: 49.6)
German Services (Previous: 54.6)
Impact: EUR/USD, commodity currencies, risk sentiment
Germany's flash PMI readings give us an early look at eurozone economic health. Manufacturing sits at 49.6, which is contractionary territory, and expectations point to continued weakness—maybe 49.0-50.0—as industrial struggles persist from trade uncertainty and semiconductor supply issues. Services held up at 54.6 in expansion mode but could soften.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD could accelerate lower on weak German PMI data, potentially triggering a breakdown below 1.1480 toward 1.1400-1.1350. Resistance at 1.1600-1.1650 would likely remain unbroken on negative PMI surprises.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on weak German PMI prints below 1.1600
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1650 – above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1500
UK Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
9:30 AM GMT
UK Manufacturing (Previous: 49.7)
UK Services (Previous: 52.3)
Impact: GBP/USD, Euro weakness vs Sterling
The UK's flash PMIs add more color on both the eurozone picture and UK-specific conditions. Manufacturing at 49.7 means we're hovering near contraction, while services at 52.3 showed modest expansion. Weakness in either would support the dovish rate-cut story and pressure sterling. Strength—especially in services—would ease rate-cut bets.
Technical Setup
Weak UK PMI data could push GBP/USD below 1.3200 toward 1.3100-1.3000.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on weak UK services PMI below 1.3170.
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3212 – above intraday resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3000 – psychological support
US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
2:45 PM GMT
US Manufacturing (Previous: 52.5)
US Services (Previous: 54.8)
Impact: USD, EUR/USD, risk-on sentiment
The US flash PMI readings land late Friday as the week's final major data drop. Manufacturing at 52.5 and services at 54.8 both signaled moderate expansion last time. Expectations are mixed—manufacturing could slip into modest contraction from trade pressures, or it might hold steady. Services strength would back the Fed's view that the economy is durable even after rate cuts. Strong numbers would kill December cut hopes and boost the dollar. Weak data would do the opposite.
Technical Setup
Strong US PMI data would likely support USD strength across the board—EUR/USD could weaken toward 1.1400-1.1350. Weak data would produce the opposite effect, supporting EUR/USD moves toward 1.1600-1.1650.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on strong US PMI data below 1.1600
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1670
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1460.
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
