BoE Decision Could Shake Sterling: Hold or Cut?

Looking to get ahead of next week's forex moves? November 3 to 7 is packed with economic releases that could seriously shake up the major currency pairs. Each day brings something worth paying attention to. Let's walk through which currencies are likely to move and how you can position yourself to capitalize.

Monday, November 3, 2025

Swiss CPI m/m

7:30 AM GMT

Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.2%
Impact: USD/CHF, EUR/CHF

Swiss CPI is forecast to drop 0.1% month-over-month. That's actually an improvement from September's -0.2% decline. Inflation in Switzerland has hit its lowest point in over three years—just 0.2% annually. That's way below the SNB's 0-2% target. The Swiss National Bank has already cut rates six times straight down to zero, and this ongoing disinflation isn't making their job any easier. Markets are now betting 72% odds on another 25 basis point cut come December 12. When inflation weakens like this, the Swiss franc typically loses ground. Real yields decline and its safe-haven appeal fades.

Technical Setup
USD/CHF: Currently at 0.80405, resistance. 0.8070 Immediate support sits at 0.7892. A sustained close above 0.80516 (weekly high) could trigger gains toward 0.81000, while breakdown below 0.79752 signals weakness toward 0.79250.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CHF on breakout above 0.80516
📍 Stop-loss: 0.79752 (below support)
🎯 Take-profit: 0.81000 (resistance extension)

ISM Manufacturing PMI

3:00 PM GMT

Forecast: 49.4 | Previous: 49.1
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD

ISM Manufacturing PMI should tick up to 49.4 from 49.1 in September. Still in contraction for the seventh month running. But if it hits that forecast, it'd be the best reading we've seen during this downturn. September showed production bouncing back to 51.0, which was good. New orders though? They fell to 48.9. That signals soft demand. Input prices stayed high at 61.9—tariffs kept pushing costs up. A print above 50 would mean expansion and give the dollar a boost. The Fed could stick with higher rates longer. Below expectations? That fuels worries about manufacturing dragging down the rest of the economy.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Trading at 1.15363, facing resistance at 1.16680 (swing high). Support at 1.15216 (October low). Stronger ISM reading pressures EUR/USD toward 1.15216, potentially targeting 1.14800. Weaker PMI triggers a rally toward 1.16520.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on breakdown below 1.15216
📍 Stop-loss: 1.15470 (above immediate support)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.14800 (extended support)

BOC Governor Macklem Speaks

6:30 PM GMT

Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY

BOC Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at The Logic Summit, and traders will hang on every word. The Bank of Canada just cut rates again on October 29—down to 2.25%. That's eight straight cuts totaling 200 basis points. Macklem has made it clear: US tariffs and trade chaos have hurt the Canadian economy badly. The damage isn't just cyclical either. It's structural, which limits what monetary policy can actually fix. Everyone wants to know if the BoC is done cutting or if more are coming. If Macklem sounds dovish and hints at more cuts, the loonie weakens. Any hint of a pause? CAD could catch a bid.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Trading at 1.40014, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.40355 (weekly high). Support at 1.38982 (mid-range support). Dovish comments from Macklem suggesting further rate cuts would push USD/CAD above 1.40355 toward 1.40800. Hawkish signals of a policy pause would trigger decline toward 1.39267.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on breakout above 1.40355
📍 Stop-loss: 1.39700 (below mid-support)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.40800 (resistance extension)

 

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

RBA Cash Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Rate Statement & RBA Press Conference

3:30 AM - 4:30 AM GMT

Forecast: 3.60% | Previous: 3.60%
Impact: AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hold at 3.60%. They're keeping policy tight after inflation came in way hotter than expected in Q3. Trimmed mean inflation hit 1.0% quarter-over-quarter—that's 3.0% annually. The RBA had forecast just 0.6% back in August. This massive miss forced them into a more cautious stance. Economists now think rate cuts won't happen until at least Q2 2026. The RBA is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Inflation's still above their 2-3% target, but growth is slowing. Governor Bullock's press conference at 4:30 AM GMT will be key for understanding when cuts might actually come.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Trading at 0.65427, resistance at 0.66176 (October high), support at 0.64476 (swing low). Hawkish hold emphasizing inflation concerns could propel AUD/USD above 0.66176 toward 0.66700. A Dovish statement hinting at future cuts pressures the pair toward 0.64956.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on breakout above 0.66176
📍 Stop-loss: 0.64956 (below support)
🎯 Take-profit: 0.66700 (resistance extension)

JOLTS Job Openings

Tentative

Forecast: 7.21M | Previous: 7.23M
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD

JOLTS data for September is tentatively on the schedule, but the government shutdown could delay it. Forecast is 7.21 million job openings, down slightly from 7.23 million. Labor demand keeps cool gradually. Openings have dropped about 800,000 compared to last September. The ratio of unemployed workers per opening has climbed from 0.7 to 0.9. A reading under 7.0 million would raise red flags about labor market weakness. That could support Fed rate cuts and hurt the dollar. Above 7.3 million? That shows demand is holding up and supports USD.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Currently near 153.99, the pair faces critical support at 151.55. Resistance at 154.30 (weekly high). Weak JOLTS data (below 7.0M) triggers USD weakness.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on breakdown below 152.85
📍 Stop-loss: 154.00 (above resistance)
🎯 Take-profit: 151.60 (extended support)

NZ Employment Change q/q & Unemployment Rate

9:45 PM GMT

Employment Change Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Unemployment Rate Forecast: 5.3% | Previous: 5.2%
Impact: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY

New Zealand's Q3 labour data should show 0.1% employment growth quarter-over-quarter. That would reverse Q2's -0.1% contraction. Unemployment is forecast to edge up to 5.3% though. This data matters because it shows whether NZ's job market is stabilizing after the RBNZ cut rates aggressively—over 200 basis points worth. Monthly indicators showed some improvement during Q3 but nothing impressive. Growth was basically flat, not enough to keep up with population increases. If unemployment comes in above 5.3%, expect more RBNZ cuts. That would pressure the kiwi lower.

Technical Setup
NZD/USD: Currently at 0.57224, resistance at 0.58015 (October high), support at 0.57137 (recent low). Stronger employment data pushes NZD/USD toward 0.58015, while disappointing figures trigger breakdown toward 0.56700.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell NZD/USD on breakdown below 0.57137
📍 Stop-loss: 0.57500 (above mid-level)
🎯 Take-profit: 0.56700 (extended support)

 

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

1:15 PM GMT

Forecast: 28K | Previous: -32K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD

October's ADP employment report is forecast at 28,000 jobs. That would be a relief after September's jaw-dropping -32,000 contraction—the first negative print in months. This report matters more than usual because the official BLS data is stuck in limbo due to the shutdown. September's decline set off alarm bells about private hiring. Estimates for October nonfarm payrolls range anywhere from 85,000 to 165,000 based on what indicators are available. An ADP number below zero would hammer the dollar and strengthen the case for Fed cuts. Above 50,000? That supports USD.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Currently at 1.31485, resistance at 1.3465 (swing high), support at 1.30969 (recent low). Weak ADP data pressures the dollar, pushing GBP/USD toward 1.32807 resistance, potentially targeting 1.33696. Strong employment data triggers decline toward 1.30969.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on breakout above 1.32807
📍 Stop-loss: 1.30969 (below support)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.33696 (resistance extension)

ISM Services PMI

3:00 PM GMT

Forecast: 50.8 | Previous: 50.0
Impact: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

ISM Services PMI is forecast at 50.8, up from 50.0 in September. Services make up over 70% of US GDP, so this matters. September was a big slowdown from earlier in 2025 when readings were consistently above 54. The preliminary S&P Global reading came in at 55.2—well above expectations and the second-strongest of the year. But ISM and S&P Global don't always line up. A reading above 52 signals solid expansion. That backs up the Fed's view that the economy is resilient and supports the dollar. Below 50? Recession fears kick in and USD weakens.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Trading at 1.15363, resistance at 1.16710 (swing high), support at 1.15216. Strong services reading above 52 pressures EUR/USD toward 1.15216, targeting 1.14800. Weak reading below 50 triggers a rally toward 1.16520.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on breakdown below 1.15216 (if ISM > 52)
📍 Stop-loss: 1.15470 (above support)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.14800 (extended support)

 

Thursday, November 6, 2025

BOE Monetary Policy Report, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes & Official Bank Rate

12:00 PM GMT

Official Bank Rate Forecast: 4.00% | Previous: 4.00%
MPC Vote Forecast: 0-1-8 (Cut-Hold-Hold) | Previous: 0-2-7
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

The Bank of England's MPC vote is expected to be close—8 members holding at 4.00%, 1 voting to cut. That's different from September's 7-2 split. UK inflation is still elevated at 3.8%, way above the 2% target. Services inflation and wages are moderating though. Goldman Sachs actually predicted a cut based on weaker data and softer labor conditions. But the consensus has shifted toward holding as policymakers worry about inflation risks. The Monetary Policy Report will have new communication features—more explanatory boxes and individual member views. Markets are pricing roughly 55-60% odds of a cut. This one's genuinely up in the air.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: At 1.31485, resistance at 1.3465 (swing high). Hold with hawkish guidance emphasizing inflation supports rally toward 1.32807, targeting 1.33696.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on breakout above 1.32807 (if BoE holds with hawkish tone)
📍 Stop-loss: 1.30969 (below support)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.33696 (resistance extension)

BOE Governor Bailey Speaks

12:30 PM GMT

Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Governor Bailey's press conference comes right after the rate decision. His comments will be crucial for understanding where the MPC goes from here. Is this hold (or potential cut) just temporary, or are we seeing a real policy shift? If Bailey sounds hawkish and keeps hammering on inflation concerns, sterling gets support. Dovish language about future cuts? GBP heads lower.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Bailey's commentary creates secondary volatility after the initial rate decision move. If GBP/USD holds above 1.31500 post-decision, hawkish Bailey comments support further gains toward 1.33000. Dovish commentary breaking 1.31000 targets 1.30500.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on dips to 1.31500 (if Bailey maintains hawkish inflation focus)
📍 Stop-loss: 1.30969 (below key support)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.32807 (resistance level)

US Unemployment Claims

Tentative

Impact: USD crosses

US unemployment claims are tentative because of the shutdown. Economists estimate claims for the week ending October 25 dropped to 219,000 from 232,000. That would be a two-month low and suggest the labor market is stable. If it gets released and comes in below 220,000, it backs up the story of labor resilience. The dollar benefits. Above 240,000? That's deterioration. USD weakens.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Claims data impacts broader USD sentiment. Strong data (below 220K) supports USD/JPY hold above 153.00, targeting 154.30.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on dips to 153.00 (if claims below 220K)
📍 Stop-loss: 152.50 (below support)
🎯 Take-profit: 154.30 (resistance)

 

Friday, November 7, 2025

Canada Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

1:30 PM GMT

Employment Change Forecast: -4.0K | Previous: 60.4K
Unemployment Rate Forecast: 7.2% | Previous: 7.1%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD

Canada's October employment is forecast to drop 4,000 jobs. That would reverse September's strong 60,400 gain. Canadian labor data swings wildly month to month. September came after August and July saw declines of 66,000 and 41,000. Unemployment should tick up to 7.2% from 7.1%. That continues the slow drift higher we've seen—up half a percentage point over the past year. Wage growth moderated to 3.3% year-over-year in September. If unemployment comes in above 7.2%, it strengthens the case for more BoC cuts. That would weaken CAD further.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD: At 1.40014, resistance at 1.40355 (weekly high). Weak Canadian employment data pushes USD/CAD above 1.40355 toward 1.40800 and potentially 1.41200. Stronger-than-expected job growth triggers decline toward 1.39700.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on breakout above 1.40355
📍 Stop-loss: 1.39700 (below support)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.40800 (resistance extension)

US Employment Data Suite (Tentative)

Tentative

Non-Farm Employment Change: Tentative
Unemployment Rate: Tentative
Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Tentative
Core PCE Price Index m/m: Forecast 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: All USD crosses

October's US employment report is a mess because of the shutdown. BLS can't release official data. Private estimates put nonfarm payrolls somewhere between 85,000 and 165,000, but October's numbers will be heavily distorted. RBC estimates about 1.48 million unpaid federal workers won't count as employed. That could show a headline loss of -1.4 million jobs. Strip out the shutdown effect though, and private job growth is estimated around 30,000. Core PCE for September was tentatively scheduled at 0.2% month-over-month, unchanged from August.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Friday NFP volatility targets 1.15216 support on strong private jobs data (above 100K excluding shutdown effect). Weak data (below 50K) triggers a rally toward 1.16520.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on rallies to 1.15700 (if private jobs > 100K excluding shutdown)
📍 Stop-loss: 1.16000 (above resistance)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.15216 (support target)

 

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.