From Euro Pessimism to US Inflation: What’s Driving Currencies This Week
Want to make the most of current week’s forex setups? This guide zeros in on the high-impact releases from September 8 to 12, including euro sentiment, China credit, US inflation and producer prices, the ECB decision, UK GDP, and US consumer sentiment.
We’ll go day by day, highlight which pairs could move, and map out actionable levels to help position ahead of the headlines. Let’s dive straight into the catalysts that may drive price this week.
Monday, September 8, 2025
EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
08:30 GMT
Previous: -3.7
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Eurozone investor sentiment fell to -3.7 in August. That's the first negative reading since March. The drop from July's 4.5 shows growing pessimism among the 5,500+ investors surveyed. They're worried about economic prospects, especially US-EU trade framework deals and what they mean for business confidence. Since this indicator usually moves before other sentiment measures, it might point to broader eurozone weakness ahead.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Current price at 1.1677. Support at 1.1617. Resistance at 1.1737.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on weak Sentix data below 1.1614
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1744 above minor resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1620 support level
Tuesday, September 9, 2025
CNY New Loans
Tentative
Previous: -50B
Impact: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNY
China's new bank loans shrank by 50 billion yuan in July. It's the first contraction in 20 years, showing just how weak credit demand has become despite normal seasonal lending patterns. Property market troubles and economic uncertainty have them spooked. Credit shrinking like this means domestic demand problems that will likely hit commodity-linked currencies.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Current at 0.6530. Support at 0.6483. Resistance at 0.6573.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD on China loan data miss below 0.6550
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6575 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6485 support level
Wednesday, September 10, 2025
USD Core PPI m/m & PPI m/m
12:30 GMT
Previous Core PPI: 0.9% | Previous PPI: 0.9%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD
July's core PPI jumped 0.9% month-over-month. That's the biggest increase since March 2022 and way above the expected 0.2%. Headline PPI also hit 0.9%, pushing annual producer inflation to 3.3% — a five-month high. Price increases spread across goods and services, with services costs spiking 1.1%. It all points to stubborn inflationary pressure, likely from tariff-related costs working through the system.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Current consolidation between 146.25–148.67. Support at 146.35. Resistance at 148.83.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on strong PPI above 147.50
📍 Stop-loss: 146.80 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 148.67 resistance target
Thursday, September 11, 2025
EUR Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement
12:15 GMT
Previous Rate: 2.15%
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY
The ECB will probably keep its main refinancing rate at 2.15%. Policymakers are signaling they're done cutting rates. Eurozone inflation is near target and the economy looks resilient. 66 out of 69 economists expect no change. A hawkish hold would contrast sharply with Fed easing expectations.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Current at 1.1677. Resistance at 1.1735. ECB hawkish hold targets 1.1770–1.1790.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on ECB hawkish hold above 1.1680
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1640 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1770 resistance
ECB Press Conference
12:45 GMT
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY
Lagarde's guidance will matter a lot for where markets go next. Recent data shows economic stabilization and inflation under control. That could back up a hawkish tone, potentially lifting the euro against dovish Fed expectations.
Technical Setup
EUR/JPY: Bullish momentum at 172.80. Resistance at 173.29. Support at 170.98.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/JPY on ECB hawkish hold above 171.72
📍 Stop-loss: 171.40 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 172.00 resistance
USD Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, CPI y/y & Unemployment Claims
12:30 GMT
Previous Core CPI: 0.3%
Previous CPI m/m: 0.2%
Previous CPI y/y: 2.7%
Previous Claims: 237K
Impact: All major USD pairs
Core CPI hit a five-month high of 3.1% annually in July. Monthly gains were 0.3% — the sharpest rise in six months. Inflation staying above the Fed's 2% target is a problem. Add in unemployment claims rising to 237,000 (a two-month high), and you've got critical data for the September FOMC meeting.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: CPI strength could drive toward 148.67–149.17. Resistance at 148.50. Support at 146.35.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on strong CPI above 147.50
📍 Stop-loss: 147.00 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 148.67 resistance zone
Friday, September 12, 2025
GBP GDP m/m
06:00 GMT
Previous: 0.4%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
The UK economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2025, beating the Bank of England's 0.1% forecast. Monthly GDP rose 0.4% in June. Services, industry, and construction all grew despite trade tariff pressures and a weaker jobs market. The numbers back up sterling's recent bounce from the August selloff.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Current at 1.3470. Resistance at 1.3590. Support at 1.3347.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on strong GDP above 1.3480
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3440 below minor support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3545 resistance target
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
14:00 GMT
Previous Sentiment: 58.2
Previous Inflation Expectations: 4.8%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD
Consumer sentiment dropped to 58.2 in August from July's five-month high of 61.7. People are worried about inflation and buying conditions are getting worse. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% from 4.5%. Consumers are concerned about tariff-driven price increases. These elevated expectations could sway Fed policy decisions.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3730. Target 1.3850 on USD strength.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on weak sentiment data above 1.3780
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3750 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3830 resistance level
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
