Fed, BoC, ECB Take Center Stage as Data Deluge Tests Risk Appetite
Looking to capitalize on forex opportunities next week? You're in the right place. Between October 27 and October 31, the market is loaded with high-impact events that could trigger significant moves across major currency pairs.
This week packs a heavy punch with three major central bank decisions — the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and European Central Bank — all taking center stage on Wednesday and Thursday. Add in critical inflation data from Australia and the U.S., plus GDP releases from multiple economies, and you've got a recipe for serious volatility and trading opportunities.
Let's break it down day by day, identify which currency pairs are likely to see the most action, and position ourselves to take advantage of the moves ahead.
Monday, October 27, 2025
RBA Governor Bullock Speaks
8:15 AM GMT
Forecast: N/A | Previous: N/A
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY
Markets will be watching closely when RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaks at the Australian Business Economists' Annual Dinner. What she says about inflation, the labor market, and when the bank might adjust rates could move Australian dollar pairs hard. The RBA hasn't rushed to cut rates because core inflation is still sticky. So traders are hunting for any shift in tone—whether she sounds more dovish or hawkish. Her take on wage growth matters a lot here, especially since it ties directly to whether inflation can get back down to 2% and stay there.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Immediate support at 0.6445 (October low). Resistance at 0.6520-0.6600 (psychological level). A break below 0.6475 could trigger a drop toward 0.6425 (multi-month support).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on hawkish rhetoric above 0.6525
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6475 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600 resistance
Tuesday, October 28, 2025
CB Consumer Confidence
Tentative
Forecast: 93.9 | Previous: 94.2
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index tracks how Americans feel about the economy and whether they're planning to spend—which drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity. If confidence drops from 94.2 to 93.9, that's another sign consumers are getting more worried. When confidence falls, it usually drags the dollar down because it points to weaker growth ahead and might shift Fed policy expectations. The expectations component is what really matters. When that number drops below 80, it's historically been a warning sign that recession could be coming.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Immediate support at 149.68-150.00 (consolidation zone). Resistance at 152.60-153.00. A break below 151.40 could accelerate selling toward 150.50.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on breakdown below 151.40 (weaker confidence data)
📍 Stop-loss: 152.00 above consolidation
🎯 Take-profit: 150.50 support
Wednesday, October 29, 2025
Australia CPI Q3
12:30 AM GMT
CPI q/q Forecast: 1.1% | Previous: 0.7%
CPI y/y Forecast: 3.1% | Previous: 3.0%
Trimmed Mean CPI q/q Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: 0.6%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD
This is the big one for the RBA's November decision. If Australia's third-quarter CPI comes in hotter than expected—above 1.1% quarterly or 3.1% yearly—it kills the case for a November rate cut and probably lifts the Aussie dollar. The Trimmed Mean CPI is what the RBA cares about most. It's expected to jump from 0.6% to 0.8% for the quarter, showing inflation isn't cooling off as hoped. Sticky core inflation means the RBA stays cautious, which supports the currency. But if the numbers come in soft, rate cut bets will heat up and the Aussie will likely drop.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Support at 0.6445-0.6480. Resistance at 0.6550-0.6600. Hot inflation could drive prices toward 0.6600 and beyond to 0.6650.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on stronger inflation above 0.6525
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6475 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600 resistance
Bank of Canada Rate Decision
1:45 PM & 2:30 PM GMT
Overnight Rate Forecast: 2.25% | Previous: 2.50%
BOC Monetary Policy Report (1:45 PM GMT)
BOC Rate Statement (1:45 PM GMT)
BOC Press Conference (2:30 PM GMT)
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD
The BoC is almost certain to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%. That would be the fourth cut in a row. The decision reflects what everyone already knows—growth is slowing, inflation pressures are easing, and the labor market isn't as tight anymore. Trade uncertainty isn't helping either. Most economists think this might be the last cut unless things get worse. Governor Tiff Macklem's press conference is where the real action happens. If he hints the bank is done cutting, or if he sounds worried about inflation staying elevated, the loonie gets support. But if he leaves the door open for more cuts, CAD weakens. The Monetary Policy Report will update forecasts for both growth and inflation.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3950-1.3980. Resistance at 1.4050-1.4100. Dovish BoC could push USD/CAD toward 1.4100 and 1.4150.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on dovish BoC breakout above 1.4030
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3980 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4150 next resistance
FOMC Interest Rate Decision
6:00 PM & 6:30 PM GMT
Federal Funds Rate Forecast: 4.00% | Previous: 4.25%
FOMC Statement (6:00 PM GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 PM GMT)
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD (All major USD pairs)
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%. That continues the easing cycle now that inflation is moving closer to 2% and the labor market has cooled off. This would be the third straight cut after the Fed shifted away from its tightening phase. What matters most is the language in the FOMC statement and what Chair Jerome Powell says at his press conference. If there's a dot plot, traders will tear it apart looking for clues about 2026. Dovish messaging—basically signaling more cuts are coming—will weaken the dollar across the board. Hawkish talk about slowing down or pausing the cuts will boost USD.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support at 149.50-150.00. Resistance at 152.50-153.00. The Dovish Fed could trigger sharp declines toward 150.00 and 149.00.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on dovish Fed below 151.40
📍 Stop-loss: 152.50 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 150.00 psychological support
Thursday, October 30, 2025
Bank of Japan Policy Rate Decision
Tentative
BOJ Policy Rate Forecast: <0.50% | Previous: <0.50%
Monetary Policy Statement (Tentative)
BOJ Outlook Report (Tentative)
BOJ Press Conference (Tentative)
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY
The BOJ is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.50%, which is already the highest since 2008. Two board members pushed for a hike to 0.75% in September, but the consensus is the bank will wait and see how things develop. Global uncertainty and trade tensions are making policymakers nervous. Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference will be crucial for figuring out when the next hike might come. The quarterly Outlook Report updates inflation and growth projections. If Ueda drops hawkish hints or suggests a January hike is possible, the yen will rally. Dovish messaging does the opposite. Traders will listen carefully to what he says about wages, whether inflation can stick, and how U.S. tariffs might affect Japan.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support at 149.50-150.50. Resistance at 152.50-153.00. Hawkish BOJ surprise could drive USD/JPY below 150.00 toward 148.50.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on hawkish BOJ below 150.50
📍 Stop-loss: 152.00 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 148.50 next support
US Advance GDP Q3
Tentative
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.8%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
The first read on third-quarter GDP is expected to show growth slowing from 3.8% to 3.0%. That's still solid, but the deceleration signals demand is cooling. Weaker consumer spending and softer business investment are part of the story, both reflecting the impact of higher rates. Traders will dig into the components—consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, so that's always the main focus. Business investment and net exports matter too. If the number comes in stronger than expected, it supports the dollar and reduces expectations for Fed rate cuts. A weaker print does the reverse. The timing is interesting because it drops just hours after the FOMC decision, so it could either back up or contradict what the Fed just told us.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support at 149.50-151.00. Resistance at 152.00-152.50. Weaker GDP could accelerate USD weakness toward 150.00.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on stronger GDP above 152.00
📍 Stop-loss: 151.00 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 153.00 resistance
European Central Bank Rate Decision
1:15 PM & 1:45 PM GMT
Main Refinancing Rate Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.15%
Monetary Policy Statement (1:15 PM GMT)
ECB Press Conference (1:45 PM GMT)
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY
The ECB is widely expected to hold the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit rate at 2.00%. That would be the third straight meeting without a move after the bank cut rates by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025. Inflation in the eurozone has stabilized around 2%, so the ECB seems content to stay on hold well into 2026 and maybe 2027. ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference will focus on updated growth forecasts, inflation trends, and whether the eurozone economy is weakening. If she leans hawkish and emphasizes inflation risks, the euro gets support. Dovish signals about future cuts would do the opposite.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Support at 1.1580-1.1600. Resistance at 1.1680-1.1730. Hawkish ECB could drive EUR/USD toward 1.1730 and 1.1800.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on hawkish ECB breakout above 1.1680
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1600 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1730 resistance
Friday, October 31, 2025
China Manufacturing PMI
1:30 AM GMT
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.8
Impact: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH
China's official Manufacturing PMI is expected to stay below 50 at 49.7, meaning the manufacturing sector is still contracting. Weak domestic demand, trade tensions, and sluggish global growth all play a role. A reading below 50 is bad news for commodity currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi since China is such a huge trading partner. If the number surprises to the upside and crosses 50, that would signal improvement and lift AUD and NZD.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Support at 0.6445-0.6500. Resistance at 0.6530-0.6600. Weak PMI could push AUD/USD toward 0.6475 and 0.6425.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD on weak PMI below 0.6500
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6550 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6425 support
Canada GDP m/m
12:30 PM GMT
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY
Canadian GDP is forecast to flatline at 0.0% in September after growing 0.2% in August. That's a sharp slowdown. Consumer spending is weakening, manufacturing is down, and trade uncertainty tied to U.S. tariffs isn't helping. If growth stalls or goes negative, it makes the case that the Bank of Canada might need to keep cutting beyond October. That would weigh on the loonie. The timing matters because this report comes just two days after the BoC's rate decision. It could confirm or challenge what the central bank just told us.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3980-1.4000. Resistance at 1.4050-1.4100. Weak GDP could drive USD/CAD toward 1.4100 and 1.4150.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on weak GDP breakout above 1.4050
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3980 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4150 resistance
US Core PCE Price Index m/m & Employment Cost Index q/q
Tentative
Core PCE Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Employment Cost Index Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: 0.9%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
The Core PCE Price Index and the Employment Cost Index paint a full picture of inflation from both sides—consumer prices and labor costs. Core PCE at 0.2% monthly is the Fed's favorite inflation measure. The ECI at 0.9% quarterly tracks wages, salaries, and benefits. These two tend to move together over time, and labor costs do feed into consumer prices, especially in services. If both come in as expected, it validates the Fed's recent rate cuts and supports more gradual easing. Core PCE is still running at 2.9% year-over-year, a bit above the 2% target. Any surprises on the hot side would raise concerns about sticky inflation and probably slow down future cuts, lifting the dollar. Softer readings would do the opposite and weaken USD. The data drops just two days after the FOMC meeting, so it's basically an instant fact-check on what the Fed just said about inflation.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3250-1.3300. Resistance at 1.3400-1.3450. Expect volatility with inflation surprises driving 50-100 pip moves.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on hotter inflation (Core PCE >0.2% or ECI >0.9%) above 1.3350
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3252 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3535 resistance
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
