EUR, AUD, and USD Set for Volatility: What Traders Need to Know

Want to squeeze more out of next week’s forex moves? This is the place. From September 29 to October 3, a packed calendar—China PMIs, the RBA, U.S. jobs data, and key speeches—could jolt the majors and open clean setups.

Let’s break it down day by day, focus on the high-impact releases, and line up precise levels and trade ideas to ride the volatility with discipline.

 

Monday, September 29, 2025

Spanish Flash CPI YoY

07:00 GMT

Forecast: 3.1% | Previous: 2.7%
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY

Spain expects September inflation to jump to 3.1% from August's 2.7%. That's the highest reading in months. Energy costs are bouncing back, and services keep pushing prices up. Spain's statistics office already locked in August at 2.7%, with core inflation ticking up to 2.4%. This 3.1% print would flag fresh price pressures across Europe. The ECB might have to rethink things, and the euro could get a lift.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Current consolidation around 1.1700 with key resistance at 1.1750–1.1800. Support at 1.1650 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.1580 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement). RSI approaching oversold at 31, allowing for potential bounce on strong CPI data. Break above 1.1720 could target 1.1800–1.1820 resistance zone.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on Spanish CPI above 3.2% at 1.1707
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1650 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1780–1.1800 resistance levels

 

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

China Manufacturing PMI

01:30 GMT

Forecast: 49.6 | Previous: 49.4
Impact: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH

China's official manufacturing PMI should edge up to 49.6 from September's 49.4. Still under 50, so contraction continues. The Caixin PMI hit 50.5 in August—best since March—so export factories are steadying a bit. But the bigger picture stays rough. Weak demand at home, producer prices falling. China drives so much commodity demand that this data moves the Aussie and Kiwi hard.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Key support at 0.6480–0.6500. Resistance at 0.6580–0.6620.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on China PMI above 50.0 at 0.6550
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6520 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600 resistance level

RBA Cash Rate Decision + Rate Statement

04:30 GMT

Forecast: 3.60% | Previous: 3.60%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD

Every economist surveyed thinks the RBA will hold at 3.60%. Australia's August CPI sped up to 3.0% from 2.8%—fastest in a year. That's keeping Michele Bullock cautious. She says inflation is in a "very good position" but sees risks everywhere. Markets barely price any cuts for Tuesday. November looks more likely. The statement language will be crucial for future policy direction signals.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Critical zone 0.6480–0.6550 with monthly range 0.6483–0.6707. Hawkish hold could break 0.6550 resistance, dovish tone risks 0.6450 test.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on hawkish RBA language above 0.6550
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6500 below decision support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6620–0.6650 resistance zone

RBA Press Conference

05:30 GMT

Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD

Bullock's press conference digs deeper into RBA thinking. Policy timing, where inflation heads next, jobs market—all on the table. How she talks about data dependency could swing the Aussie well past the rate decision itself.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Key support at 0.6480–0.6500. Resistance at 0.6580–0.6620.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD strength on confident inflation outlook above 0.6550
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6520 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600 resistance level

US JOLTS Job Openings

14:00 GMT

Forecast: 7.15M | Previous: 7.18M
Impact: USD/XXX pairs, DXY

U.S. job openings should drop slightly to 7.15 million from July's 7.18 million. July was a 10-month low and missed estimates badly. Healthcare and social assistance shed the most jobs. The South, Northeast, and Midwest all weakened. JOLTS previews Friday's payrolls, so softer openings hint at more labor cooling. That supports the Fed's dovish lean.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3320, Resistance at 1.3400–1.3535.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on JOLTS below 7.0M at 1.3480
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3525
🎯 Take-profit: GBP/USD 1.3290

 

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

12:15 GMT

Forecast: 53K | Previous: 54K
Impact: USD/XXX pairs, DXY

ADP should show 53,000 private jobs added in September, down from August's 54,000. Job growth keeps slowing—August was way under July's 106,000 jump. ADP has been missing forecasts regularly. Workers find it harder to find work across industries. This feeds straight into Friday's NFP expectations and Fed policy bets.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Could rally toward 1.3400–1.3450 on USD weakness. ADP misses by >20K typically generate 40–60 pip moves in major USD pairs.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD on ADP below 40K at 1.3480
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3525
🎯 Take-profit: GBP/USD 1.3290

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

15:00 GMT

Forecast: 49.1 | Previous: 48.7
Impact: USD/XXX pairs, DXY

ISM manufacturing PMI might improve to 49.1 from September's 48.7. Still under 50 means contraction drags on. U.S. factories face weak global demand, supply snags, and high input costs. The sector's been contracting for months. Broader uncertainty and trade disruptions hurt production. When manufacturing PMI crosses 50, it often shifts risk sentiment fast.

Technical Setup
DXY: Manufacturing weakness adds to broader USD pressure from earlier ADP. USD/JPY: Risk of decline toward 149.00–149.50 on combined weak data. PMI below 48.0 risks significant USD weakness, above 50.0 could support bounce.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY at 149.40
📍 Stop-loss: USD/JPY 150.50
🎯 Take-profit: USD/JPY 148.00

 

Thursday, October 2, 2025

Swiss CPI MoM

06:30 GMT

Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
Impact: USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF

Swiss prices should fall 0.2% month-over-month, worse than September's -0.1% drop. Switzerland's strong franc and weak domestic pressures keep pushing deflation. The SNB watches for deflation risks while managing franc strength against trading partners. Deeper deflation could spark intervention talk or policy shifts.

Technical Setup
USD/CHF: Support at 0.7910, Resistance at 0.8015. Stronger deflation (-0.3% or worse) could weaken CHF across all pairs significantly.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CHF on CPI below -0.3% at 0.7940
📍 Stop-loss: 0.7925
🎯 Take-profit: 0.8020 resistance zone

US Unemployment Claims

12:30 GMT

Forecast: 229K | Previous: 218K
Impact: USD/XXX pairs

Initial jobless claims might rise to 229,000 from last week's 218,000. That signals some softening before Friday's big jobs report. The increase fits with other signs of gradual labor cooling. Claims above 250K usually mean serious labor trouble. Under 200K suggests things stay tight. This is the final check before Friday's employment trilogy.

Technical Setup
USD pairs: Higher claims reinforce Fed dovish expectations ahead of NFP. EUR/USD: Consolidation 1.1700–1.1750 ahead of Friday's major events. Claims above 250K could trigger immediate USD selling, below 200K supports strength.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on Claims above 250K at 1.1770
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1820
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1650

 

Friday, October 3, 2025

BOJ Governor Ueda Speaks

01:05 GMT

Impact: USD/JPY, JPY/XXX pairs

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda faces scrutiny after recent yen swings and political heat. The BOJ juggles USD/JPY strength, political interference on intervention, and rate hike timing. Recent BOJ communications stress gradual policy shifts tied to data and wage growth. Markets will parse every word on intervention levels, rate timing, and current USD/JPY above 150.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Testing critical 150.00 psychological level with resistance at 149.45–150.45. Hawkish Ueda (rate hike hints) could trigger 100+ pip USD/JPY decline.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on hawkish Ueda comments at 149.40
📍 Stop-loss: 150.00 above intervention zone
🎯 Take-profit: 148.30 support level

US Employment Trilogy - Average Hourly Earnings MoM + Non-Farm Employment Change + Unemployment Rate

12:30 GMT

Average Hourly Earnings - Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Non-Farm Employment Change - Forecast: 51K | Previous: 22K
Unemployment Rate - Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3%
Impact: USD/XXX pairs, DXY

September's NFP trilogy is the week's biggest market mover. Jobs should jump to 51,000 from August's weak 22,000—still historically soft. Hourly earnings likely hold at 0.3% monthly, showing steady wage pressure that matters for Fed decisions. Unemployment should stay at 4.3%, suggesting controlled labor softening. This combo decides Fed policy bets and broad dollar direction across majors.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3734, Resistance at 1.3930.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD on NFP <30K or Earnings <0.2% at 1.3930
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3960
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3840

BOE Governor Bailey Speaks

13:20 GMT

Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

Bailey's remarks give insight into UK policy outlook and inflation worries after mixed recent data. His take on future rate paths and economic risks could hit GBP hard, especially 50 minutes after the major U.S. jobs data. Bailey's tone on UK inflation persistence and labor strength will drive GBP pairs.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Post-NFP positioning with secondary impact from Bailey comments. Hawkish Bailey could add 30–50 pips to any NFP-driven GBP strength; dovish tone could reverse gains.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on dovish Bailey comments regardless of NFP at 1.3480
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3520
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3320

US ISM Services PMI

14:00 GMT

Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 52.0
Impact: USD/XXX pairs

ISM services PMI should hold steady at 52.0, showing America's dominant service sector keeps expanding. That supports the U.S. resilience story despite factory weakness. Services make up 80% of economic activity, so this PMI matters for the big picture. Above 54.0 could extend any NFP-driven dollar strength. Below 50.0 risks reversing morning gains across all dollar pairs.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: resistance 149.95; support 147.44

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on Services PMI >54.0 (if NFP was strong) at 148.40
📍 Stop-loss: 147.60
🎯 Take-profit: 150.00

 

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.