Published:June 1, 2026

Rabobank: Fed shifts away from easing bias as inflation risks persist

Troy Bening
Written byTroy Bening

Rabobank's Senior US Strategist Philip Marey updated the bank's US and Federal Reserve outlook, noting that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has moved away from an easing bias ahead of Warsh’s first meeting. Marey highlighted that developments in the Middle East are likely to keep energy prices elevated, a factor that may sustain inflationary pressures and postpone the timing of Fed rate cuts.

Rabobank's view on policy and inflation dynamics

According to Rabobank, the FOMC’s tilt away from easing reflects a reassessment of inflation risks in light of geopolitical developments that can influence energy costs. The bank flags that elevated energy prices are an input to headline inflation and that this backdrop makes earlier rate reductions less likely until clearer evidence of disinflation appears. Rabobank links this shift to potential implications for US Treasury yields and the general stance of monetary policy.

Why Forex traders should care

Currency markets may remain sensitive to changes in expectations about the Fed’s path. Rabobank points out that a delayed easing trajectory would affect rate differentials and therefore exchange-rate dynamics. Markets may focus on:

  • DXY — expectations for the timing of cuts can influence the dollar index as traders reassess US rate premia.
  • EUR/USD and GBP/USD — these pairs may be influenced by shifts in US yields and the comparative outlook for European and UK policy.
  • USD/JPY — expectations around US yields and carry differentials are relevant for this cross.

Rabobank also notes the link between energy-driven inflation risks and broader asset pricing, with the reaction depending on how persistent markets judge those inflationary effects to be.

Markets will monitor upcoming US macro releases and the Fed’s communications around Warsh’s first meeting for confirmation of Rabobank’s view. Traders will likely watch data and Fed commentary to gauge whether inflation remains sufficiently sticky to defer rate cuts.