Weekly Forex Forecast: Red Folder News to Watch (May 5 - May 9, 2025)

Between May 5 and May 9, 2025, the economic calendar is bustling with high-impact releases, from central bank announcements to significant inflation and employment data, that may rock major currency pairs and expose new trading opportunities.

Let's dissect every trading day, highlight the red-folder news, and chart where the biggest moves are likely to originate so that you are able to plan your trades with confidence.

 

Monday, May 5, 2025

CHF CPI m/m

(6:30am GMT)

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
Impact: USD/CHF, EUR/CHF

Swiss inflation figures are an essential driver of the franc, with direct implications on Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy expectations. A stronger-than-expected CPI may power less dovish SNB bets and support CHF. A miss, by contrast, may bear on the currency, with the SNB having signaled caution regarding further tightening in recent times.

Technical Setup
USD/CHF: Support at 0.80448 (April swing low). Resistance at 0.88533 (March high).

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CHF if CPI disappoints (below 0.2%)
📍 Stop-loss: 0.80448
🎯 Take-profit: 0.88533

USD ISM Services PMI

(2:00pm GMT)

Forecast: 50.2 | Previous: 50.8
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

ISM Services PMI is the best indicator of the health of the US economy. A reading slightly above 50 is indicative of sluggish expansion, and one below 50 is indicative of contraction and may fuel bets on Fed easing. The latest readings indicate that the sector is only barely expanding, so a downside surprise has the potential to unleash USD weakness.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Resistance at 1.15715 (April high). Support at 1.11616 (200-day SMA and 61.8% Fib level).

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD if PMI falls below 50
📍 Stop-loss: 1.08866
🎯 Take-profit: 1.15715

 

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

NZD Employment Change q/q & Unemployment Rate

(10:45pm GMT)

Employment Change: Forecast 0.1% | Previous -0.1%
Unemployment Rate: Forecast 5.3% | Previous 5.1%
Impact: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD

New Zealand labor market data is important to RBNZ policy. A soft jobs print or rising unemployment may put the kiwi under pressure, particularly as the RBNZ has been growing increasingly dovish in recent times. Markets will look to see if there is any evidence of labor market softening that will reinforce dovish sentiment.

Technical Setup
NZD/USD: Support at 0.5850. Resistance at 0.60269 (April high).

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell NZD/USD if unemployment rises above 5.3%
📍 Stop-loss: 0.5990
🎯 Take-profit: 0.5850

 

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

USD Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Statement

(6:00pm GMT)

Forecast: 4.50% | Previous: 4.50%
Impact: DXY, EUR/USD, Gold (XAU/USD)

The Fed is likely to keep rates where they're at, so the FOMC statement will be scrutinized for hints regarding further rates or balance sheet policy actions. A dovish bias or suggestions that rates will be cut will undermine the dollar and lift gold and risk assets. A hawkish message will support the USD.

Technical Setup
XAU/USD: Support at $3,164 (61.8% Fib level). Resistance at $3,500.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy Gold (XAU/USD) if FOMC signals dovishness
📍 Stop-loss: $2,954
🎯 Take-profit: $3,500

 

Thursday, May 8, 2025

GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Official Bank Rate

(11:00am GMT)

Votes: 0-9-0 | Forecast Rate: 4.25% | Previous: 4.50%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.29805 (61.8% Fib level). Resistance at 1.34389.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD if BOE signals more cuts ahead
📍 Stop-loss: 1.34389
🎯 Take-profit: 1.29805

USD Unemployment Claims

(12:30pm GMT)

Forecast: 232K | Previous: 241K
Impact: USD/CAD, EUR/USD

Weekly jobless claims are a measure of labor market health in real-time. A worse-than-expected reading has the potential to reinforce recessionary fears and boost USD volatility if accompanied by dovish Fed rhetoric from the previous day.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Broken out of the triangle and retested the lower trendline.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD if claims rise above 250K
📍 Stop-loss: 1.39500
🎯 Take-profit: 1.36479

 

Friday, May 9, 2025

GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

(8:40am GMT)

Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Governor Bailey will be watched closely for any light he sheds on the BOE's policy direction after Thursday's decision on interest rates. Anything dovish or worrying about growth will continue to bear down further on GBP.

Technical Setup
EUR/GBP: Support at 0.84850. Resistance at 0.87380.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/GBP on dovish tone
📍 Stop-loss: 0.83204
🎯 Take-profit: 0.87380

CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

(12:30pm GMT)

Employment Change: Forecast 24.5K | Previous -32.6K
Unemployment Rate: Forecast 6.7% | Previous 6.7%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY

Canadian jobs data is one of the big drivers of the loonie. A robust jobs recovery will be supportive of CAD, while another soft number or increased unemployment will probably put the currency under pressure, particularly in light of global growth worries.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Broken out of the triangle and retested the lower trendline.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD if jobs data beats expectations
📍 Stop-loss: 1.39500
🎯 Take-profit: 1.36479

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.