Current week’s Forex market outlook: Key events & Trading setups (May 12 – May 16, 2025)

Get ready for a busy week ahead as high-impact economic events are set to shake up the forex market between May 12 and May 16, 2025. Major data releases — from credit and budget figures in China and the US to labor and GDP reports in the UK and Australia — promise to drive volatility and open up new trading opportunities. Let’s break down the week, day by day, to identify the best technical setups and trading ideas that can help you stay one step ahead.

Monday, May 12, 2025

CNY New Loans

(Time: Tentative)

Impact: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

New loan data from China offers a glimpse into the country’s credit expansion. Strong lending growth might signal robust economic activity and boost risk sentiment, which would favor commodity-tied currencies like the AUD and NZD. On the other hand, weaker loan growth could raise concerns over China’s economic trajectory.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Currently testing resistance at 0.6500, with support holding at 0.6370 (recorded on May 10).

Trade Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on a close above 0.6500.
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6370
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6700

USD Federal Budget Balance

(19:00 GMT)

Forecast: -$160.5B (Previous: -$161B) | Impact: USD/JPY, DXY

An even wider budget deficit might trigger worries about U.S. fiscal sustainability, adding downward pressure on the dollar. However, unless the numbers significantly deviate from expectations, market reaction may be modest.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: The pair is holding near 145.00 (within the BoJ intervention zone) with resistance at 145.50 (200-day SMA) and support at 140.20.

Trade Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY if the pair breaks below 143.50.
📍 Stop-loss: 145.50
🎯 Take-profit: 137.00

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

GBP Claimant Count Change

(07:00 GMT)

Forecast: 18.7K (Previous: N/A) | Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

This indicator reflects the trend in people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK. An uptick could indicate a weakening labor market, potentially prompting the Bank of England to cut rates sooner, which would weigh on the pound. If the numbers are higher than expected, expect downward pressure on GBP; if lower, it may support the currency.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Resistance is near 1.3400 (the high recorded on May 12), with support at 1.3150 (based on the 200-day SMA).

Trade Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD if the pair falls below 1.3150.
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3250
🎯 Take-profit: 1.2700

USD CPI Data

(13:30 GMT)

Forecast: Core CPI MoM 0.1% | CPI MoM -0.1% | CPI YoY 2.4% | Impact: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, NAS100

US inflation data is a crucial headline release that can significantly impact the dollar and risk sentiment globally. Strong or sticky inflation could slow the pace of rate cuts and support the USD, while lower inflation might encourage a more dovish stance from the Fed and boost risk assets such as equities and gold.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Key resistance is at 1.1400, with support at 1.0930.

Trade Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD if the CPI data exceeds forecasts.
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1400
🎯 Take-profit: 1.0900

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

AUD Wage Price Index q/q

(02:30 GMT)

Forecast: 0.7% (Previous: N/A) | Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY

Australia’s Wage Price Index is a vital indicator of wage growth across the economy. Strong wage gains are likely to ignite inflationary pressures, prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to tighten monetary policy, which would bolster the Aussie. Conversely, weak wage data could ease inflation concerns and put downward pressure on AUD. Central banks will be watching these numbers closely today.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Resistance remains at 0.6500, while support is pegged at 0.6370.

Trade Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on a sustained break above 0.6500.
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6450
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6700

Thursday, May 15, 2025

AUD Employment Data

(02:30 GMT)

Forecast: Employment Change 32.2K | Unemployment Rate 4.1% | Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD

Employment data in Australia is critical for the Aussie. Strong job growth along with stable or declining unemployment indicate economic strength, supporting AUD. On the flip side, weaker data could raise concerns about an economic slowdown and push expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Immediate resistance is at 0.6500 with support at 0.6370.

Trade Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD if actual job numbers exceed forecasts.
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6450
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6700

GBP GDP m/m

(07:00 GMT)

Forecast: 0.5% (Previous: N/A) | Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

The monthly GDP figure offers a quick snapshot of the UK's economic momentum. A better-than-expected result will bolster the pound by reducing prospects for further rate cuts from the Bank of England, while disappointing data may spark fears of stagnation, thereby weighing on GBP.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Resistance is at 1.3430, with support at 1.3000 (61.8% Fib level).

Trade Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on a close above 1.3000.
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3870
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3500

USD Retail Sales & PPI

(13:30 GMT)

Forecast: Core Retail Sales 0.5% | Retail Sales 1.4% | Core PPI -0.1% | PPI -0.4% | Impact: USD/CAD, SPX500, DXY

Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index offer valuable insights into the overall health of the US economy and inflation. Strong retail spending indicates robust consumer demand, while producer prices reflect inflationary pressures within manufacturing. High numbers in both metrics would strengthen the dollar, but weak data may trigger a risk-off sentiment, pushing the USD lower.

Technical Setup
SPX500: Currently testing 5,100, with a breakout target of 5,700.

Trade Idea
🎯 Buy SPX500 if Retail Sales outperform forecasts.
📍 Stop-loss: 5,000
🎯 Take-profit: 5,700

Friday, May 16, 2025

USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

(15:00 GMT)

Forecast: 52.2 | Inflation Expectations 6.5% | Impact: USD/JPY, XAU/USD

The preliminary Consumer Sentiment index from the University of Michigan provides early insight into consumer confidence and inflation expectations. An increase in inflation expectations might renew concerns over pricing pressures— which would support the USD and dampen risk appetite — while a lower sentiment may trigger a flight to safe-haven assets like gold.

Technical Setup
XAU/USD: Support is at $3,160 (200-day SMA and 61.8% Fib level), with resistance at $3,500.

Trade Idea
🎯 Buy XAU/USD if inflation expectations rise above 6.5%.
📍 Stop-loss: $3,070
🎯 Take-profit: $3,500

Note: All times are in GMT. Trade ideas are provided for educational purposes — always confirm market conditions before entering positions.