Key Forex Events That Could Trigger Breakouts This Week
Between April 28 and May 2, we've got a busy calendar that might stir up major currency pairs and bring some interesting opportunities to trade.
Let's take it day by day and see who's going to move the most in the currency pairs and position ourselves accordingly to take advantage of it.
Monday, April 28, 2025
1. Spanish Unemployment Rate (8:00 GMT)
Actual: 11.4% (Forecast: 10.7% | Previous: 10.6%)
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
The unemployment rate in Spain reached 11.4% during Q1 2025 because employers became more cautious despite the economy performing better than EU peers. The jobless rate increased throughout all sectors where services experienced the largest job loss of 124,900 positions and industry lost 21,100 positions. The Eurozone growth story faces challenges because Spain achieved a 3.2% GDP expansion in 2024.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Immediate support at 1.1315 (April 23 low). Resistance at 1.1385
A daily close below 1.1315 could trigger a drop toward 1.1178.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on breakdown below 1.1315
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1385
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1178
2. UK CBI Realized Sales (11:00 GMT)
Actual: -8 (Forecast: -21 | Previous: -41)
Impact: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY
The UK retail sector experienced its seventh consecutive month of sales decline with an 8%
decrease compared to the previous month's -41% result. The March retail rebound failed to
overcome weak consumer sentiment and global trade tensions. The CBI predicts a deeper
economic decline in May (-33) which forces the BoE to continue its dovish communication
approach.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Key support at 1.2973 (61% Fib level). Resistance at 1.3418 (April 21 high).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD if holds above 1.2973 post-data
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3232
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3731
3. Canadian Federal Election (All Day)
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY
The Canadian snap election pits Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney against Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre who has gained significant momentum. The main topics of discussion during the election revolve around housing affordability and energy policy. The polls indicate a close competition between candidates which will probably lead to CAD market volatility when election results become available. A Conservative victory would strengthen the CAD through
their pro-energy policies but a hung parliament would create extended political uncertainty.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Symmetrical triangle
Implied Volatility: CAD options pricing 1.5% swing post-results.
Trading Idea
🎯 Avoid fresh CAD positions until the results are clear. Hedge with USD/CHF or gold.
Tuesday, April 29, 2025
1. US CB Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT)
Forecast: 52.2 (Previous: 57.0)
Impact: USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD)
The US consumer confidence index is expected to reach 52.2 in April which represents the
fourth consecutive monthly decrease since July 2022. The combination of rising inflation
expectations at 6.5% YoY and growing recession concerns has led to a decline in consumer
sentiment as two-thirds of people expect rising unemployment rates. The expected decline in
USD/JPY below 142.344 (April 24 low) and rising gold prices as a safe-haven asset are likely to
occur.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Descending channel. A breakdown targets 138.45.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY below 142.344
📍 Stop-loss: 144
🎯 Take-profit: 138.45
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
1. US Advance GDP q/q (8:30 GMT)
Forecast: 1.8% (Previous: 3.4%)
Impact: USD Index, Gold
Q1 GDP growth is expected to slow sharply to 1.8% annualized, down from 3.4% in Q4 2024, as tariffs and weakening business investment bite. A sub-1.5% print could trigger USD sell-offs, with the DXY index potentially testing its April 21 low at 98.02. Gold may capitalize on safe-haven flows, targeting $3,500 if momentum sustains.
Technical Setup
USD Index: Key support at 98.02; resistance at 99.87.
Gold (XAU/USD): Breakout above $3,350 opens path to $3,500 (measured move).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy XAU/USD above $3,350
📍 Stop-loss: $3,300
🎯 Take-profit: $3,500
2. German Prelim CPI m/m (2:29 GMT)
Forecast: 0.3% (Previous: 0.4%)
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
The German inflation rate is predicted to decrease to 0.3% MoM in April from 0.4% in March because of declining energy prices which reached -2.8% YoY. The ECB rate-cut prospects remain limited because core inflation remains at 2.6% and service sector costs have surged by 3.5% YoY. The EUR/USD exchange rate has increased by 6.4% throughout the year because of EU fiscal stimulus and USD weakness caused by tariffs. The pair will move toward 1.1574 if the
print exceeds 0.4%.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Ascending channel. Resistance at 1.15710 aligns with the April 21high.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD at support: 1.12406
📍 Stop-loss: 1.10087
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1574
3. US ADP Employment Change (8:15 GMT)
Forecast: 155K (Previous: 118K)
Impact: USD/CAD, AUD/USD
The ADP report is expected to show 155K job additions, but recent misses (3/4 past months) suggest downside risks. A weak print (<150K) could foreshadow a soft NFP and weigh on the USD, particularly against commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Symmetrical triangle. A breakdown targets 1.3785.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD below 1.3600
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3680
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3450
4. China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (9:45 GMT)
Forecast: 51.2 (Previous: 50.8)
Impact: AUD/USD, Copper
China’s Caixin PMI rose to 51.2 in March, driven by export growth and the first employment expansion in 19 months. A repeat strong print (>51.0) could lift AUD/USD above 0.6700, though ongoing US-China tariff tensions cap upside.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Double top at 0.6440; RSI divergence signals bullish momentum.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD above 0.6440
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6350
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6550
Thursday, May 1, 2025
1. BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Tentative)
Forecast: Hold at 0.5%
Impact: USD/JPY, Nikkei 225
The BoJ is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.5% but may adjust yield curve control (YCC) parameters, allowing 10-year JGB yields to rise toward 1%. This could trigger a JPY rally, pressuring USD/JPY toward 138.45. The yen’s strength may also weigh on Nikkei equities.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Descending channel. A break below 142.344 confirms bearish momentum.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY below 142.344
📍 Stop-loss: 144
🎯 Take-profit: 138.45
Friday, May 2, 2025
1. US Non-Farm Payrolls (8:30 GMT)
Forecast: 165K (Previous: 192K)
Impact: USD Index, Gold
The US labor market is expected to cool, with NFP additions slowing to 165K amid tariff-related layoffs in manufacturing. A miss (<150K) could fuel recession fears, sinking the USD Index below 103.20 and propelling gold toward $3,500.
Technical Setup
Gold (XAU/USD): Cup-and-handle target at $3,500.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy XAU/USD above $3,350
📍 Stop-loss: $3,300
🎯 Take-profit: $3,500
Make sure to manage your risk carefully, as NFP days are known for their fast and sometimes
unpredictable price swings.
