Forex Weekly Outlook: Top News & Trade Setups for August 4–8, 2025
Looking to sharpen your forex game next week? You’re in the right place. From August 4 to 8, key economic releases and central bank events are set to shake up major currency pairs and create some prime trade setups.
Let’s break it down day by day, highlight which markets could see the most action, and spot where the best trading opportunities might be.
Monday, August 4, 2025
CHF CPI m/m
06:30 GMT
Forecast: –0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: EUR/CHF, USD/CHF
Switzerland's monthly CPI dropping into negative territory shows deflation is creeping in. Consumer demand remains weak. When the numbers hit forecasts or go even lower, expect the Swiss National Bank to stick with their dovish stance. That makes CHF less attractive for investors chasing yield or hedging against inflation. A weaker franc should give EUR/CHF and USD/CHF some upward momentum.
Technical Setup
USD/CHF: Support at 0.7876; resistance at 0.8170
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CHF on close below 0.8030
📍 Stop-loss: 0.8090
🎯 Take-profit: 0.7910
Tuesday, August 5, 2025
USD ISM Services PMI
14:00 GMT
Forecast: 51.5 | Previous: 50.8
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
ISM Services PMI above 50 means the biggest chunk of the US economy is still growing. That's reassuring given all the global uncertainty swirling around. Strong numbers usually push the dollar higher. But if it disappoints, expect the euro and pound to catch some relief. Markets get jumpy fast when US services show any signs of slowing down—it messes with what people think the Fed will do next.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support at 145.85; resistance at 150.89
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on break above 147.67
📍 Stop-loss: 146.30
🎯 Take-profit: 150.89
NZD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
22:45 GMT
Employment Change (q/q): –0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
Unemployment Rate: 5.3% | Previous: 5.1%
Impact: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY
More job cuts and rising unemployment in New Zealand paint a clear picture: the economy is cooling off. This puts serious pressure on the RBNZ to keep cutting rates or go even deeper. NZD is going to struggle, especially against stronger currencies. Bad data could easily trigger a sharp selloff.
Technical Setup
NZD/USD: Support at 0.5857; resistance at 0.6060
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell NZD/USD on drop below 0.6016
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6058
🎯 Take-profit: 0.5857
Wednesday, August 6, 2025
FOMC Members Collins & Cook Speak
18:00 GMT
Impact: USD crosses
When FOMC members Collins and Cook speak publicly, traders listen hard. Any fresh takes on inflation, rates, or balance sheet moves can shake things up. With nothing else major happening from the US this week, even subtle hints about Fed thinking can send USD pairs flying. Everyone's watching for any splits in opinion or tone shifts that might change rate bets before the next meeting.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Support at 1.1395; resistance at 1.1787
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on drop below 1.1679
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1789
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1395
Thursday, August 7, 2025
GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report, Summary, MPC Votes & Official Bank Rate
11:00 GMT
Votes: 0–8–1 | Previous: 0–3–6
Official Rate Forecast: 4.00% | Previous: 4.25%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
The Bank of England's shift toward easier policy—shown by the expected quarter-point cut and almost everyone voting for it—reveals real worry about UK growth. Global headwinds and domestic problems are biting. The pound typically weakens when rate gaps work against it. Markets will pick apart every word from the meeting for clues about what comes next, plus check how divided the committee really is.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3143; resistance at 1.3585
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on close below 1.3500
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3585
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3143
USD Unemployment Claims
12:30 GMT
Forecast: 221K | Previous: 218K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
Weekly jobless claims give us a live look at how the US labor market is doing. A big jump past expectations might signal cracks are forming, which would hurt the dollar. If claims stay steady or drop, that backs up the story that the economy is holding strong. Surprises in either direction move markets immediately.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Support at 1.1395; resistance at 1.1787
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on claims > 225K; 1.1460
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1370
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1785
Friday, August 8, 2025
CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
12:30 GMT
Employment Change: 15.3K | Previous: 83.1K
Unemployment Rate: 7.0% | Previous: 6.9%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, AUD/CAD
Canada's job growth is slowing down hard while unemployment ticks higher. This pushes the Bank of Canada toward more dovish talk and probably more rate cuts ahead. The Canadian economy was already struggling, so more labor market weakness leaves CAD exposed to further drops. The widening rate gap with the US makes USD/CAD an especially vulnerable pair to watch.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3576; resistance at 1.3879
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on dip toward 1.3650
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3576
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3879
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
