Currency Crossroads: Key Economic Events and Winning Setups for Forex Traders
Curious about what’s coming up in forex for the week of June 9th to 13th, 2025? You’re in luck. There’s a bunch of big economic news lined up, and it could really stir things up for the major currency pairs. That means plenty of chances to catch some moves. We’ll go day by day, highlighting the most important “red/orange folder” events—the ones most likely to shake the markets. Then, we’ll look at how to set up your trades to make the most of the action.
Monday, June 9, 2025
Chinese CPI y/y
(01:30 GMT)
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
Impact: AUD/CNY, USD/CNH, EUR/CNH
China’s consumer prices are still stuck in deflation territory, dragged down by weak spending and factories pumping out more goods than buyers want. Thanks to ongoing U.S. trade curbs, the pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus—a move that could keep the yuan and Aussie dollar on the back foot.
Technical Setup
AUD/CNY tests resistance at 4.6800 (May/s high). A daily close above this level could target 4.9200, while failure may revisit 4.6800 support (100-day SMA). RSI divergence signals overbought conditions.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/CNY on rejection at 4.6800
📍 Stop-loss: 4.6910 (above weekly pivot)
🎯 Take-profit: 4.6000 (psychological support)
Chinese PPI y/y
(01:30 GMT)
Forecast: -3.1% | Previous: -2.7%
Impact: CNH/JPY, GBP/CNH, EUR/CNH
Factory gate prices fell harder than expected, especially in steel and electronics. With global demand cooling, China might let the yuan slide further to make its exports cheaper—a potential headache for trading partners.
Technical Setup
CNH/JPY consolidates near 20.70 (61.8% Fib of 2024 rally). A breakdown below 20.20 (May low) could accelerate losses toward 19.13. MACD lines signal bearish momentum.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell CNH/JPY on breakdown below 20.14
📍 Stop-loss: 20.60 (above 50-day EMA)
🎯 Take-profit: 19.13 (2025 support zone)
Tuesday, June 10, 2025
UK Claimant Count Change
(06:00 GMT)
Forecast: 9.5K | Previous: 5.2K
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
Britain’s job market just threw a curveball. Rising unemployment claims point to cracks in the UK labor market, making traders question how long the Bank of England can keep rates high. The pound’s looking vulnerable.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD struggles below 1.3600 (YTD high). Immediate support at 1.3500 (May 28 low). A break below 1.3480 (200-day SMA) may trigger a drop to 1.3300.
Trading Idea
🎯Sell GBP/USD on breakdown below 1.3500
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3550
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3300 (March swing low)
Wednesday, June 11, 2025
US Core CPI m/m
(12:30 GMT)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Gold (XAU/USD)
Underlying U.S. inflation barely budged last month, hinting that price hikes are losing steam in sectors like healthcare and hospitality. Traders are now betting the Fed could slash rates by September—bad news for the dollar.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY faces resistance at 146.50 (double-top pattern). A close below 145.35 (50% Fib) targets 142.15. Stochastic oscillator shows bearish crossover.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on breakdown below 144.60
📍 Stop-loss: 146.30 (above recent high)
🎯 Take-profit: 142.10 (2025 low)
US CPI m/m
(12:30 GMT)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: USD Index, GBP/USD, EUR/USD
Flatlining energy and food costs kept overall inflation muted. Dollar bears are circling, with traders eyeing the 104 level on the dollar index as the next battleground.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD rebounds from 1.1200 support. Resistance at 1.1441 (200-day SMA). A breakout above 1.1440 could target 1.1450, while reversal risks persist below 1.1300.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on breakout above 1.1441
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1370
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1570 (April high)
US CPI y/y
(12:30 GMT)
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.3%
Impact: USD/CHF, USD/CAD, XAU/USD
Yearly inflation just hit its softest pace since 2023. With real returns shrinking, gold’s looking more attractive as investors seek shelter.
Technical Setup
Gold (XAU/USD) tests $3,500 resistance (all-time high). A daily close above this level targets $3,450, while pullbacks find support at $3,275 (trendline).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy XAU/USD on breakout above $3,370
📍 Stop-loss: $3,275
🎯 Take-profit: $3,450 (Fibonacci extension)
Thursday, June 12, 2025
UK GDP m/m
(06:00 GMT)
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100
Britain’s economy eked out modest growth, driven by pubs, shops, and construction sites. But Brexit’s still weighing on trade, capping the pound’s upside.
Technical Setup
GBP/JPY tests 196.35 resistance. A rejection here could see a pullback to 194.66 (20-day SMA). Volume profile shows weak buying above 196.00.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/JPY on rejection at 196.00
📍 Stop-loss: 196.50 (above weekly high)
🎯 Take-profit: 191.90 (May support)
US Core PPI m/m
(12:30 GMT)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
Impact: USD/CAD, USD/CHF, S&P 500
Factory prices unexpectedly dropped—a red flag for manufacturing activity. Stock traders cheered, hoping this pushes the Fed toward rate cuts.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD breaks below 1.3780 support (61.8% Fib). Next target at 1.3630 (2025 low). Momentum indicators favor CAD strength.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD on breakdown below 1.3770
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3860
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3630 (psychological support)
US PPI m/m
(12:30 GMT)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.5%
Impact: USD/JPY, Nasdaq 100, Copper
Plunging energy and freight costs sent producer prices tumbling, adding fuel to the disinflation fire. Tech stocks rallied as borrowing cost fears eased.
Technical Setup
Nasdaq 100 futures test 21,810 resistance (all-time high). A breakout could target 19,000, while support holds at 21,435 (20-day SMA).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy Nasdaq 100 on breakout above 21,810
📍 Stop-loss: 21,435 (below session low)
🎯 Take-profit: 22,200
US Unemployment Claims
(12:30 GMT)
Forecast: 241K | Previous: 247K
Impact: USD/MXN, USD/BRL, S&P 500
More Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, ramping up bets that the Fed will cut rates sooner. Emerging market currencies caught a bid.
Technical Setup
USD/MXN breaks below 19.00 support (2025 low). Next target at 18.50 (78.6% Fib). RSI enters oversold territory.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/MXN on breakdown below 19.00
📍 Stop-loss: 19.20 (above 50-day SMA)
🎯 Take-profit: 18.50 (psychological level)
Friday, June 13, 2025
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
(14:00 GMT)
Forecast: 52.5 | Previous: 52.2
Impact: USD/JPY, Gold, USD Index
The mood’s stuck in neutral at 52.2—folks still fret about prices despite cooler inflation data. All eyes are on those 6.6% inflation expectations keeping dollar bears cautious.
Technical Setup
USD Index tests 98.90 resistance (38.2% Fib). A close above 98.80 could target 105.50, while support holds at 98.27 (May low).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD Index on breakout above 98.80
📍 Stop-loss: 98.40 (below session low)
🎯 Take-profit: 100.00 (April high)
US Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
(14:00 GMT)
Previous: 6.6%
Impact: USD/CHF, XAU/USD, Treasury Yields
When inflation expectations jumped to 6.6%, bond traders hit the panic button. The 10-year yield spiked to 4.5%, and the dollar squeezed higher as shorts scrambled.
Technical Setup
10-Year Treasury Yield breaks above 4.40 resistance. Next target at 4.60 (May high). Inverse head-and-shoulders pattern suggests bullish momentum.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy 10-Year Treasury Futures
📍 Stop-loss: 4.44
🎯 Take-profit: 4.62 (May high)
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
