Forex Markets Get Ready: Forex Reacts to Vital Economic and Bank News

Want to stay ahead in the forex market next week? You’re in the right place. From June 16 to June 20, the calendar is packed with major economic releases and central bank decisions that could shake up currency pairs and open up fresh trading opportunities.

Let’s break down each day, spotlight the high-impact events, and see where the best setups and trade ideas are lining up.

 

Monday, June 16, 2025

Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales

02:00 GMT

Forecast: Industrial Production (Forecast: 5.9% | Previous: 6.1%)
Retail Sales (Forecast: 4.9% | Previous: 5.1%)
Impact: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNY

China’s factories kept humming louder than predicted last month, even as growth slowed. But shoppers stayed cautious – retail numbers missed the mark, with housing worries keeping wallets shut. While Aussie and Kiwi dollars might catch a boost from the factory news, weak spending keeps the yuan on shaky ground.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6530 (May high) with support at 0.6455 (100-day SMA). A daily close above 0.6550 could target 0.6600.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on breakout above 0.6550
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6447 (below 50-day EMA)
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600

US Empire State Manufacturing Index

12:30 GMT

Forecast: 5.9 | Previous: -9.2
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY

That’s six straight months of contraction for New York factories. The real pain shows in the details: new orders tanked 15.4 points while employers cut jobs faster (-12.1). This could push the Fed toward rate cuts sooner than planned, putting the dollar on the back foot.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY tests 145.40 (trendline) with RSI at 68 warning of overbought conditions.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY at 145.00 with hawkish BoJ anticipation
📍 Stop-loss: 145.50 (above psychological level)
🎯 Take-profit: 142.00

 

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Bank of Japan Policy Decision

Tentative

Forecast: BOJ Policy Rate (Forecast: <0.50% | Previous: 0.50%)
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

Japan’s central bank left rates frozen below zero, but traders are glued to Ueda’s every word. If he drops hints about July hikes or bond-buying cuts during his presser, the yen could explode into action.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY faces cluster resistance at 145.40-145.00. Bearish divergence on daily MACD suggests potential reversal. Support at 142.55.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on hawkish BoJ rhetoric below 144.55
📍 Stop-loss: 145.50 (above YTD high)
🎯 Take-profit: 142.50.

US Retail Sales

12:30 GMT

Forecast: Core Retail Sales (Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%)
Retail Sales (Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: 0.1%)
Impact: USD/CAD, DXY, Gold

Americans tightened their belts harder than expected last month. With core retail sales slipping into negative territory (-0.1%), recession whispers are getting louder – and the greenback’s feeling the heat.

Technical Setup
Gold holds support at $3,300/oz (50-day SMA). Break above $3,350 could target $3,500 resistance.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy XAU/USD if Fed hints at dovish pivot
📍 Stop-loss: $3,280 (below SMA)
🎯 Take-profit: $3,500 (resistance zone)

 

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

UK CPI Inflation

06:00 GMT

Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.5%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Prices are heating up again across Britain, with service costs stuck at a blistering 5.4%. This complicates the BoE’s plans, forcing markets to rethink those August rate cut bets. Sterling bulls are licking their chops.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD tests 1.3600 resistance. Break above may target 1.3700. Support at 1.3510 (50-day SMA).

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on daily close above 1.3600
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3530 (below pivot)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3700

US Unemployment Claims

12:30 GMT

Forecast: 242K | Previous: 248K
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Unemployment claims held steady at 248,000 last week—same as before, but above the 242,000 analysts expected. That’s the highest reading in eight months, which points to a bit of a chill in the job market. The four‐week average jumped to 240,250, up 5,000 and the highest since August 2023. Meanwhile, continuing claims shot up to 1.956 million, the most since late 2021. It’s taking folks longer to land new jobs these days. Businesses are playing it cautious, freezing hires and cutting hours as trade war worries drag on. All this adds up to a labor market that’s clearly losing a little steam.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD benefits from dollar weakness on soft employment data, testing resistance at 1.1600 with support at 1.1492.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on weak jobless claims above 1.1560
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1480 (below support)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1620 (resistance target)

BOC Governor Macklem Speech

15:15 GMT

Forecast: N/A | Previous: Last major speech March 20, 2025
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY

Governor Macklem's timing couldn't be worse – or better, depending on how you look at it. The BOC's caught between U.S. trade chaos and stubborn inflation. Traders will hang on every word, hunting for clues about rate cuts. The economy's looking shaky, and those tariffs aren't helping anyone sleep better at night. If Macklem sounds even slightly dovish about keeping rates low longer, the loonie could take a beating. That's especially true if Powell comes out swinging hawkish later tonight.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD tests 1.3650 resistance (50-day SMA). Bearish RSI divergence warns of reversal risks. Support at 1.3550 (weekly low). A dovish Macklem speech could trigger breakdown toward 1.3500.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD below 1.3650 on dovish BOC rhetoric
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3700 (above 50-day SMA)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3550 (support cluster)

FOMC Rate Decision & Projections

18:00 GMT

Forecast: 4.50% | Previous: 4.50%
Impact: All USD pairs, Gold

The Fed’s playing it cool with rates, but their updated forecasts could pack surprises. Powell’s comments about shrinking their balance sheet and job market trends will move markets – keep your eyes glued.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD faces a make-or-break test at 1.1500. Fed hawkishness could trigger a drop to 1.1350 support.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on hawkish Fed statement below 1.1450
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1525 (above weekly open)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1300 (61.8 fib level)

NZD GDP

22:45 GMT

Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 0.7%
Impact: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD

Kiwis got some good news – their economy bounced back harder than expected last quarter. Farms and tourist hotspots drove the 0.7% jump, giving the NZD some much-needed muscle.

Technical Setup
NZD/USD tests 0.6060 resistance. A break above 0.6070 could target 0.6100. Support at 0.6000 (100-day SMA).

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy NZD/USD on breakout above 0.6070
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6000 (below SMA)
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6100

 

Thursday, June 19, 2025

Australian Employment Data

01:30 GMT

Forecast: Employment Change (Forecast: 19.9K | Previous: 89.0K)
Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%)
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD

Down Under’s job market slammed expectations, adding 89k positions. With full-time roles surging and more people jumping into the job hunt, the RBA might think twice about cutting rates. Aussie dollar bulls are charging.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD tests 0.6530 resistance. Bullish MACD crossover suggests upside potential. Support at 0.6455 (200-day SMA).

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on sustained move above 0.6530
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6450 (below pivot)
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600

SNB Policy Meeting

07:30 GMT

Forecast: SNB Policy Rate (Forecast: 0.00% | Previous: 0.25%)
Impact: USD/CHF, EUR/CHF

Switzerland’s central bankers look set to hike rates again, fighting inflation creeping in from Europe’s struggles. Their new forecasts and any currency intervention talk could spark franc fireworks.

Technical Setup
USD/CHF tests 0.8060 support. Break below may target 0.8000. Resistance at 0.8250 (50-day SMA).

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CHF on hawkish SNB statement below 0.8180
📍 Stop-loss: 0.8250 (above SMA)
🎯 Take-profit: 0.8060 (support cluster)

Bank of England Rate Decision

11:00 GMT

Forecast: Official Bank Rate (Forecast: 4.25% | Previous: 4.25%)
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

The Bank of England’s walking a tightrope – cutting rates despite stubborn inflation, with policymakers split 7-2. Their updated economic outlook and QT plans will make or break sterling’s week.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.3600 (weekly high). Break below 1.3515 support may trigger a drop to 1.3300.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on dovish hold below 1.3515
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3550 (above resistance)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3300 (psychological support)

 

Friday, June 20, 2025

UK Retail Sales

06:00 GMT

Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: 1.2%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

British shoppers came out swinging last month, driving a 1.2% retail surge. Online bargains and summer wardrobe splurges stole the show, giving the pound some late-week momentum.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD tests 1.3600 resistance. Bullish RSI divergence suggests upside potential. Support at 1.3515 (50-day SMA).

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on breakout above 1.3600
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3515 (below pivot)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3700

BOJ Governor Ueda Speech

06:40 GMT

Governor Ueda's speech will provide additional insight into the Bank of Japan's policy thinking following Tuesday's rate decision. His comments on global trade impacts, inflation outlook, and future policy direction will be crucial for yen positioning. Any hawkish tilt or discussion of accelerated normalization could trigger significant yen strength.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Sensitive to verbal intervention and policy signals. Key levels: 142.50 support, 145.50 resistance. Volatility expected around speech timing.

Trading Idea
🎯 Trade USD/JPY volatility around Ueda speech
📍 Stop-loss: Tight stops due to high volatility potential
🎯Take-profit: Quick scalping opportunities on directional moves

Canadian Retail Sales

12:30 GMT

Forecast: Core Retail Sales (Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.7%)
Retail Sales (Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.8%)
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY

Canada’s retail story had twists – overall sales jumped on car deals, but core sales fell off a cliff (-0.7%). This mixed bag keeps BOC doves circling, leaving the loonie vulnerable.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD tests 1.3650 resistance (50-day SMA). Bearish divergence on RSI suggests reversal risk. Support at 1.3565 (weekly low).

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD below 1.3630 with stop above SMA
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3650 (above resistance)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3500

 

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.