Forex Frenzy: Fed Chair Speech Poised to Stir Key Market Moves
Want to catch the big moves in the market next week? There’s a lot coming up from June 2nd to 6th. Fed Chair Powell will speak, the ECB has a rate decision, and the U.S. jobs report is on deck. Expect some turbulence. Let’s break down what’s ahead and spot the setups worth watching.
Monday, June 2nd, 2025
ISM Manufacturing PMI
(14:00 GMT)
Forecast: 49.3 | Previous: 48.7
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is stuck below 50 again, now at 48.7. That’s three months in a row showing factories are still struggling. New orders and jobs numbers inside the report look weak too, so traders are leaning toward the Fed staying dovish, especially with supply chains still tangled by tariffs. Powell’s speech after this report will be watched closely. People want to know if the Fed sees the manufacturing slump as a bigger deal than the steady services sector.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY shows immediate support at 142.35 (May 24 low) with resistance at 145.95 (May 27 high). A breakdown below 142.00 could trigger bearish momentum toward 140.00 psychological support.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on breakdown below 142.00
📍 Stop-loss: 142.35 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 140.00 support
Fed Chair Powell Speech
(17:00 GMT)
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/CAD
When Powell speaks, he’ll probably touch on tariffs and jobs. The latest ISM numbers make things tricky for the Fed. Factories are slowing, but services are still growing—April’s services PMI came in at 51.6. If Powell talks tough on inflation, the dollar might bounce back from any losses after the ISM release.
Technical Setup
● EUR/USD tests 1.1212 support (May 27 low) with resistance at 1.1412 (May 24 high). A hawkish tilt from Powell may push the pair toward 1.1070 support.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD below 1.1212 on hawkish Fed comments
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1300 above pivot
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1000 psychological level
Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025
Swiss CPI m/m
(06:30 GMT)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
Impact: USD/CHF, EUR/CHF
Swiss inflation didn’t budge last month, which keeps deflation worries alive. That puts more pressure on the SNB to keep its policies loose. Meanwhile, the ECB just raised rates to 2.4%, so the gap between the two central banks is growing. Import prices in Switzerland also dropped, pointing to weak demand and slowly price increases from tariffs.
Technical Setup
USD/CHF consolidates near 0.8191 support (May 28 low) with resistance at 0.8337 (April high). A breakout above 0.8337 could target 0.8474 extension.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CHF on breakout above 0.8337
📍 Stop-loss: 0.8250 below trendline
🎯 Take-profit: 0.8474 resistance
BOJ Gov Ueda Speech
(Tentative)
Impact: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY
Japan’s currency is still under pressure. Traders are waiting to see if BOJ Governor Ueda hints at any policy changes, especially after disappointing wage data in April. If he sounds cautious, USD/JPY could keep climbing toward 160.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY shows bearish divergence on weekly charts near 160.00 resistance. Immediate support lies at 142.12 (May 25 low).
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY below 142.12 on intervention rhetoric
📍 Stop-loss: 146.27 above recent high
🎯 Take-profit: 139.99 April pivot
JOLTS Job Openings
(14:00 GMT)
Previous: 7.19M
Impact: GBP/USD, USD/CAD
Job openings in the U.S. dropped again, now for the sixth month in a row, down to 7.19 million. Sectors like healthcare and construction are seeing the biggest drops. This cools off wage growth worries and could make the Fed less likely to tighten aggressively, especially with the big jobs report coming Friday.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD holds above 1.3420 support (May 26 low) with resistance at 1.3590 (May 23 high). A soft JOLTS print could propel the pair toward 1.3600.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD above 1.3420.
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3392 below support.
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3590.
Wednesday, June 4th, 2025
Australian GDP q/q
(01:30 GMT)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.6%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD
Australia’s economy grew faster than expected, up 0.6% last quarter. Mining exports and consumer spending did most of the heavy lifting. The RBA might keep its rate hikes slow and steady, but the Aussie dollar is still facing some pressure from trade tensions with China.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD breaks falling wedge resistance at 0.6510, eyeing 0.6419 (200-SMA). Support holds at 0.6357 (May 20 low).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on retest of 0.6448 breakout
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6400 below psychological level
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6540.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
(12:15 GMT)
Forecast: 100k | Previous: 62K
Impact: USD/CAD, GBP/USD
The ADP jobs report missed badly—just 62,000 new jobs versus 147,000 last time. Manufacturing and retail took the biggest hits. This adds some uncertainty ahead of the official U.S. jobs numbers.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD tests 1.3700 support (May 26 low) with resistance at 1.3850 (May 23 high). A breakdown below 1.3800 risks 1.3700 support.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD below 1.3800
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3850 above pivot
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3700.
BOC Rate Decision
(13:45 GMT)
Previous: 2.75% | Forecast: 2.50%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY
The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 basis points to fight persistent inflation in services, but hinted it might pause soon. With unemployment ticking up to 6.9%, traders will be watching for any clues about when the next move could come.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD faces layered resistance at 1.3850–1.3800. Momentum oscillators show overbought conditions on daily charts.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD above 1.3850 on dovish BOC rhetoric
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3800 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4000.
ISM Services PMI
(14:00 GMT)
Previous: 51.6 | Forecast: 52.0
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/JPY
The U.S. services sector is still expanding, with the ISM Services PMI at 51.6. Prices are rising fast, which keeps pressure on the Fed. The mix of strong services and weak manufacturing is making things complicated for dollar traders.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY shows a bullish engulfing pattern near 143.88. A close above 144.00 resistance could target 146.30.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY above 144.00
📍 Stop-loss: 143.37 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 146.50 psychological level.
Thursday, June 5th, 2025
ECB Rate Decisionm
(12:15 GMT)
Forecast: 2.40% | Previous: 2.40%
Impact: EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF
The ECB just raised rates again, even though the eurozone economy shrank a bit last quarter. Lagarde’s press conference will be key—she’ll likely talk about inflation and bank lending, and traders will be looking for any hints about future rate moves.
Technical Setup
EUR/GBP tests descending trendline resistance at 0.8460 (May 21 high). Support holds at 0.8370 (May 26 low).
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/GBP below 0.8370
📍 Stop-loss: 0.8400 above trendline
🎯 Take-profit: 0.8300 psychological support.
US Unemployment Claims
(12:30 GMT)
Forecast: 232k | Previous: 240k
Impact: All USD pairs
U.S. Unemployment claims are still low at 225,000, showing the labor market is tight. If claims fall below 220,000, it could push the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY consolidates between 143.80–144.50. A break above 144.00 targets 146.30 extension.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY above 144.00
📍 Stop-loss: 143.30.
🎯 Take-profit: 146.30.
Friday, June 6th, 2025
Canadian Employment Change
(12:30 GMT)
Previous: 7.4K
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY
Canada’s job growth is slow, and unemployment is up. How wages are holding up—especially in provinces tied to oil—will shape how the Canadian dollar reacts after the Bank of Canada’s move.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD tests 200-SMA resistance at 1.3860. A daily close above 1.3850 confirms bullish reversal.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD above 1.3860
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3800 below SMA
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4000.
US Non-Farm Payrolls
(12:30 GMT)
NFP Forecast: 130k | NFP Previous: 177K | Unemployment Rate Forecast: 4.2%
Impact: All USD pairs
The U.S. jobs report beat expectations at 177,000, but unemployment rose to 4.2% and wage growth slowed. The Fed will be watching participation and hours worked closely, especially after Powell’s recent cautious comments.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD tests 1.1400 resistance cluster.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD above 1.1410
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1310.
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1550.
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
