Fed, BoC, BoE and BoJ Decisions: A Make-or-Break Week for Major Currencies

Looking ahead to the week of September 15 to 19, the forex market is set for some impactful moves. Key economic reports and central bank decisions from China, Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and Japan are on the calendar, each with potential to shake up major currency pairs.

Let’s break down the week day by day, highlight the events that matter most, and explore trade setups that could help position for the shifts ahead.

 

Monday, September 15, 2025

Industrial Production y/y & Retail Sales y/y

02:00 GMT

Forecast: Industrial Production 5.7% | Retail Sales 3.8% | Previous: Industrial Production 5.7% | Retail Sales 3.7%
Impact: USD/CNH, EUR/CNH, AUD/CNH

China’s factory output and retail sales give a quick snapshot of how makers and shoppers are doing. When factory numbers surprise on the upside, commodity prices often climb and Asia-linked currencies get a lift. If retail spending picks up, it shows consumers feel confident—adding to bets that Beijing will keep stimulus handy. Together, these reports set the mood for risk appetite and tend to squeeze the dollar.

Technical Setup
EUR/CNH: range 8.30–8.42. Support at 8.30. Resistance at 8.41.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/CNH on break above 8.36
📍 Stop-loss: 8.34
🎯 Take-profit: 8.41

 

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

CAD CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y & Trimmed CPI y/y

12:30 GMT

Forecast: CPI 0.1% | Median 3.1% | Trimmed 3.0% | Previous: CPI 0.3%, Median 3.1%, Trimmed 3.0%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD, CAD/CHF, GBP/CAD

Canada’s three inflation readings paint a fuller picture of price trends. If headline CPI softens, the loonie usually slips as traders dial back on further tightening. But when median and trimmed CPI stay firm, it reminds everyone that inflation pressures are still there. Those mixed signals force markets to rethink BoC rate-cut timing, moving cross-rates like USD/CAD and EUR/CAD.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD: range 1.3916–1.3725. Support 1.3725. Resistance 1.3916.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD on rejection at 1.3860
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3890
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3730

Core Retail Sales m/m & Retail Sales m/m

12:30 GMT

Forecast: Core 0.4% | Retail 0.2% | Previous: Core 0.3% & Retail 0.5%
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

U.S. retail sales are a big driver of GDP and Fed policy. Core retail sales strip out volatile bits like autos and fuel, revealing the real strength of consumer demand. Headline sales show the full spending picture, autos included. When the two diverge, it flags sector-specific strength or weakness—and shifts bets on the Fed’s next move, tilting dollar flows.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: range 146.30–148.80. Support 146.30. Resistance 148.77.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on break above 147.90
📍 Stop-loss: 147.45
🎯 Take-profit: 149.00

 

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

CPI y/y (GBP)

06:00 GMT

Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.8%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

U.K. inflation stubbornly above 2% keeps the Bank of England on edge. Rising costs in services and energy mean investors still expect more rate hikes. That view often lifts sterling whenever it dips, especially against currencies backed by looser central banks.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: range 1.3345–1.3590. Support 1.3345. Resistance 1.3581.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on hold above 1.3580
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3520
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3700

BOC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate

13:45 GMT

Forecast: Overnight Rate 2.50% | Previous: Overnight Rate 2.75%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, AUD/CAD

When the Bank of Canada wraps its statement around a rate decision, it spells out its take on growth and inflation. A rate cut tends to weigh on the loonie, and dovish language can deepen its slide. But hinting at a bias to keep rates high can spark a quick rebound—proving that every word matters.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD: range 1.3916–1.3725. Support 1.3725. Resistance 1.3916.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD on rejection at 1.3860
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3890
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3730

BOC Press Conference

14:30 GMT

Impact: Broad CAD crosses

At the BOC press conference, Governor Macklem’s comments on growth and timing often send shockwaves through all loonie crosses. Traders hang on any mentions of global spillovers, housing risks or household debt. Those asides can trigger rapid re-pricing of carry and risk trades.

Technical Setup
EUR/CAD (1.6257–1.6030)

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/CAD on rejection at 1.6253
📍 Stop-loss: 1.6272
🎯 Take-profit: 1.6100

Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Projections & Statement

18:00 GMT

Forecast: Rate 4.25% | Previous: Rate 4.50%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD

A Fed rate cut marks a shift toward looser policy and usually puts the dollar under pressure. Yet the fine print in projections and the statement can send mixed signals. Investors pore over changes in the dot plot and any tweaks on labor-market wording. Small shifts can spark big reversals as markets adjust to the Fed’s new path.

Technical Setup
USD/CHF: support 0.7920. Resistance 0.8068.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CHF on dovish cues at 0.7987
📍 Stop-loss: 0.7947
🎯 Take-profit: 0.8060

FOMC Press Conference

18:30 GMT

Impact: All USD pairs

In the Q&A, Chair Powell often digs into data drivers and risk factors. His tone can trigger sudden bursts of volatility. Traders trying to front-run those cues may see exaggerated moves—making quick in-and-out straddles or fade plays a go-to tactic.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD 1.1580–1.1780

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on dovish cues at 1.1747
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1701
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1800

GDP q/q (NZD)

22:45 GMT

Forecast: –0.3% | Previous: 0.8%
Impact: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD

A contraction in New Zealand’s GDP suggests domestic demand is slowing and boosts recession fears. Since the NZD trades on high real yields, a weak growth print can trigger aggressive rate-cut bets, sending antipodean crosses sliding as carry trades unwind.

Technical Setup
NZD/USD: 0.5900–0.5979. Support 0.5915. Resistance 0.5979.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell NZD/USD on break below 0.5940
📍 Stop-loss: 0.5970
🎯 Take-profit: 0.5850

 

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (AUD)

01:30 GMT

Forecast: Change 21.2K | Unemployment 4.2% | Previous: Change 24.5K & Unemployment 4.2%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/AUD

Australia’s jobs numbers shape expectations around the RBA. If employment growth misses or unemployment ticks up, it points to slack—reducing the odds of another rate hike. Conversely, a strong payrolls beat would give the AUD a lift, especially versus peers with weaker labor trends.

Technical Setup
AUD/JPY: 96.80–98.40. Support 96.80. Resistance 98.33.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/JPY on hold above 97.20
📍 Stop-loss: 96.80
🎯 Take-profit: 98.30

Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Votes & Official Bank Rate (GBP)

11:00 GMT

Forecast: Votes 0-1-8 | Rate 4.00% | Previous: Votes 0-5-4 & Rate 4.00%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF

The Bank of England’s policy package blends forward guidance, voting splits and the headline rate. A rise in dovish votes hints at future cuts and usually dents sterling. Even if rates stay put, any dovish spin can push GBP lower, especially in the more volatile crosses.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: range 1.3345–1.3590. Support 1.3345. Resistance 1.3581.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on hold above 1.3580
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3520
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3700

Unemployment Claims (USD)

12:30 GMT

Forecast: 245K | Previous: 263K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

Weekly jobless claims track layoffs and labor-market health. A drop below forecasts underscores resilience and often boosts the dollar on Fed hawkish bets. But a surprise uptick in claims can trigger recession fears, softening the dollar as traders ramp up rate-cut pricing.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: 146.31–148.77. Support 146.31. Resistance 148.75.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on dip to 146.50
📍 Stop-loss: 146.30
🎯 Take-profit: 147.20

 

Friday, September 19, 2025

BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference

Tentative

Forecast: Policy Rate <0.50% | Previous: Rate <0.50%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, all JPY crosses

The Bank of Japan’s policy update sets the tone for yen moves. Sticking with ultra-easy policy while others tighten widens rate gaps, weighing on JPY. Comments on yield-curve control tweaks or the inflation outlook during the press conference can unleash sharp swings across all yen pairs.

Technical Setup
EUR/JPY: 170.98–173.77. Support 170.98. Resistance 173.77.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/JPY on rejection at 173.36
📍 Stop-loss: 173.78
🎯 Take-profit: 171.90

 

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.