EUR, CAD, NZD, GBP & USD in Focus Ahead of Busy Data Week
Want to stay ahead in next week’s forex market? This is the playbook. From August 18 to 22, high-impact releases across EUR, CAD, NZD, GBP, and USD—including Eurozone Trade Balance, Canada CPI, the RBNZ decision, UK CPI, PMIs, US jobless claims, and Powell at Jackson Hole—could drive sharp moves and clean intraday setups.
We’ll break it down day by day, focus only on red-folder events, outline the likely impact on key pairs, and highlight actionable technical levels with clear trade ideas. Let’s get positioned early and trade the reaction, not the noise.
Monday, August 18, 2025
EUR Trade Balance
09:00 GMT
Forecast: 18.1B | Previous: 16.2B
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Eurozone trade balance should jump to €18.1B from €16.2B, showing exports are picking up steam despite Germany's ongoing struggles. The euro has been sitting around 1.1701 and gained 6.10% over the past year. If we get a number above expectations, it suggests European exporters are getting more competitive even with all the global trade chaos.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Current level around 1.1679, support at 1.1628, resistance at 1.1725. Weekly high reached 1.1713 on August 13th.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on trade balance beat above 1.1625
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1616 below pullback support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1750 resistance target
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Canadian CPI Data Release
12:30 GMT
CPI m/m Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.1%
Median CPI y/y Forecast: 3.1% | Previous: 3.1%
Trimmed CPI y/y Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.0%
Impact: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD
Three Canadian inflation reports drop at once, making this the biggest CAD event of the week. Monthly CPI jumping from 0.1% to 0.4% would show prices are heating up fast. The Bank of Canada watches median and trimmed CPI closely—both stuck at 3.1% and 3.0%. That's way above their 2% target. These measures strip out the noisy stuff and show what inflation is really doing underneath, which matters for what the BoC does next.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Currently near 1.3750, resistance at 1.3879, support at 1.3721. Pair showing bearish momentum with potential reversal off resistance.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on strong inflation data above 1.3720
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3730 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3850 resistance zone
Wednesday, August 21, 2025
RBNZ Policy Decision Package
02:00 GMT
Official Cash Rate Forecast: 3.00% | Previous: 3.25%
Impact: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD
The RBNZ will likely cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.00%. That's the seventh cut since they started easing last August. With inflation at 2.7%—right in their 1–3% sweet spot—another cut makes sense. Their policy statement matters more though. Markets are betting 85% on this cut, but the real question is how many more cuts are coming after trade policies shake things up.
Technical Setup
NZD/USD: Currently near 0.5923, support at 0.5856-0.5881, resistance at 0.5994. Pair rejected from 0.5994 resistance, turning 50 and 100-day SMAs into resistance. RSI momentum shifts bearish, indicating seller control.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell NZD/USD on dovish RBNZ surprise below 0.5927
📍 Stop-loss: 0.5952 above 50-day SMA resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 0.5856 August low support
RBNZ Press Conference
03:00 GMT
Impact: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD
Hawkesby's press conference will spell out where rates are heading and how trade wars might hit New Zealand's export economy.
Technical Setup
NZD/USD: Currently near 0.5923, support at 0.5856-0.5881, resistance at 0.5994. Break below 0.5900 could accelerate decline toward monthly lows.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell NZD/USD on dovish RBNZ surprise below 0.5925
📍 Stop-loss: 0.5944 above 100-day SMA
🎯 Take-profit: 0.5856 key support level
UK CPI y/y
06:00 GMT
Forecast: 3.7% | Previous: 3.6%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
UK inflation should climb to 3.7%, getting close to the Bank of England's 4.0% peak forecast for September. Their August report keeps warning about services inflation staying too high. This number will shape what traders expect from the BoE and where the pound heads next.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Currently testing 1.3574-1.3590 resistance, support at 1.3154. Price holding above ascending trendline with upward momentum. RSI above 60 maintaining bullish bias.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on inflation beat above 1.3580
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3518 below trend support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3643 resistance level
FOMC Meeting Minutes
18:00 GMT
Impact: All major USD pairs
July's FOMC minutes will show us what Fed officials were really thinking about rates. Everyone's expecting cuts, so if the minutes sound more hawkish than expected, the dollar could rally hard across the board.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Bearish bias targeting 145.94 support.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY at 147.20
📍 Stop-loss: 148.00
🎯 Take-profit: 145.90 support level
Thursday, August 22, 2025
German Flash PMI Data
07:30 GMT
Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 48.8 | Previous: 49.1
Services PMI Forecast: 50.5 | Previous: 50.6
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
German PMI will likely show manufacturing sinking deeper to 48.8 while services barely stay above 50.5. Europe's biggest economy keeps struggling, and the weakness is spreading from factories to service companies. These numbers will move the euro and influence what the ECB does.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Vulnerable below 1.1680, key support at 1.1628. Trading within upward channel but facing resistance near 1.1800 psychological level. Technical indicators have room for further upside before overbought.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on weak German PMI below 1.1650
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1720 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1580 support target
UK Flash PMI Data
08:30 GMT
Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 48.2 | Previous: 48.0
Services PMI Forecast: 51.9 | Previous: 51.8
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
UK PMI should show manufacturing improving slightly but still contracting. Services will keep growing at a decent pace, which is what matters most for Britain's economy anyway.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Testing resistance at 1.3574-1.3590, support at 1.3154. Bullish momentum intact with potential target at 1.3700. Break above 1.3600 could confirm upward continuation.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on strong services PMI above 1.3580
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3518 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3643 resistance level
US Unemployment Claims
12:30 GMT
Forecast: 227K | Previous: 224K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Jobless claims will probably tick up a bit, showing the job market is cooling slowly but still holding up well. This could shift expectations about when the Fed starts cutting rates.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Range-bound with bearish bias, resistance at 147.92, support at 146.33.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on better-than-expected claims below 220K above 147.00
📍 Stop-loss: 145.94 below range support
🎯 Take-profit: 147.92 resistance level
US Flash PMI Data
13:45 GMT
Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 49.9 | Previous: 49.8
Services PMI Forecast: 53.3 | Previous: 55.7
Impact: All USD pairs
US PMI will paint a mixed picture. Manufacturing might edge up but stay weak, while services cool down from recent highs but keep expanding solidly. That backs up the idea that the US economy is still hanging tough.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Currently near 1.3750, resistance at 1.3879, support at 1.3721. Pair showing bearish momentum with potential reversal off resistance. Trading range between 1.3720–1.3775 with Bollinger Bands narrowing.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on strong inflation data above 1.3720
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3730 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3850 resistance zone
Friday, August 23, 2025
Fed Chair Powell Speech & Jackson Hole Day 2
14:00 GMT
Impact: All USD pairs
Powell speaks at Jackson Hole on day two, focusing on labor markets. This is huge since his term ends in May 2025. Every word gets dissected for clues about September's rate decision and the Fed's bigger plans. Jackson Hole speeches have a history of moving markets for months afterward.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Bullish momentum targeting 1.3700
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD above 1.3580
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3518 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3643 resistance level
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
