Dollar on Breakout Watch as US CPI and PMIs Take Center Stage
Looking to position yourself for next week's forex moves? October 20–24 brings a packed calendar of red-folder events that could shift major currency pairs. Rate decisions, inflation reports, and PMI data from top economies are all dropping—expect volatility and breakout setups.
We'll break it down day by day to see where the action is.
Monday, October 20, 2025
Chinese Loan Prime Rates
1:00 AM GMT
1-Year LPR - Forecast: 3.00% | Previous: 3.00%
5-Year LPR - Forecast: 3.50% | Previous: 3.50%
Impact: USD/CNY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
China's benchmark rates should stay put at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year). The PBOC is walking a tightrope between supporting growth and keeping the yuan stable. Industrial output is weak. Retail sales are sluggish. But with US-China trade tensions flaring up again, don't expect aggressive cuts. A hold signals discipline—though it won't do much for the yuan or Aussie dollar. If rates do drop unexpectedly, the yuan takes a hit and drags AUD down with it thanks to China's trade weight.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Support at 0.6440 (recent multi-week low). Resistance at 0.6530.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD if both LPRs hold steady (risk-on, no policy surprise) at 0.6478
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6420 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6560 resistance
Tuesday, October 21, 2025
Canadian Inflation Data
12:30 PM GMT
CPI m/m - Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Median CPI y/y - Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.1%
Trimmed CPI y/y - Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.0%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD
Canadian inflation looks soft. Monthly CPI should print at -0.1%, while Median CPI slips from 3.1% to 3.0%. That cooling trend backs the case for Bank of Canada rate cuts on October 29th—markets see 60% odds of a 25-point cut. Trimmed CPI holding at 3.0% means core inflation is sticky but not accelerating. The dovish BoC stance typically weighs on the loonie, especially as the rate gap with the Fed widens. USD/CAD longs look appealing here.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Immediate support at 1.3981. Resistance at 1.4080 (October 14 high). Break above 1.4080 targets 1.4130-1.4150 zone.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on weaker-than-expected CPI at 1.4020
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3970 below consolidation support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4130 resistance zone
Wednesday, October 22, 2025
UK CPI y/y
6:00 AM GMT
CPI y/y - Forecast: 4.0% | Previous: 3.8%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
UK inflation is set to jump to 4.0%—the highest this year. Energy bills are up. Food costs remain elevated. Service inflation isn't budging. That puts the Bank of England in a tough spot: 4% inflation screams "no rate cuts," but unemployment is at 4.8% and growth is barely hanging on. A 4.0% print likely delays cuts from December to 2026, which should lift sterling immediately as traders reprice BoE hawkishness. GBP/USD benefits. EUR/GBP faces pressure since the ECB is clearly leaning dovish.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3255 (October 9 low). Resistance at 1.3485-1.3500 (recent consolidation high). Break above 1.3500 opens 1.3550-1.3600 zone. 100-period SMA on 4-hour chart broken, favoring bulls.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on CPI at or above 4.0% (hawkish BoE repricing) at 1.3420
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3380 below consolidation support
🎯 Take-profit 1: 1.3550 resistance
Thursday, October 23, 2025
Canadian Retail Sales
12:30 PM GMT
Core Retail Sales m/m - Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: -1.2%
Retail Sales m/m - Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: -0.8%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD
Canadian retail sales look set for a sharp bounce—core up 1.5%, headline at 1.0%. That reverses recent drops and signals consumers are back. Since consumer spending accounts for 60% of GDP, this matters. Strong numbers could make the BoC pause rate cuts even after Tuesday's soft inflation. A solid print supports the loonie and might slow USD/CAD's climb. But retail sales have been choppy lately, so watch whether this is real momentum or just a one-month correction.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Trading at 1.4015 with bullish bias intact. Key support zone: 1.3900-1.3970. Immediate resistance: 1.4080 (October high). 50-day EMA providing dynamic support near 1.3900.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD if retail sales disappoint at 1.4015
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3980
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4150
Friday, October 24, 2025
German Flash PMIs
7:30 AM GMT
Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast: 49.6 | Previous: 49.5
Flash Services PMI - Forecast: 51.1 | Previous: 51.5
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY
German manufacturing should stay in contraction at 49.6—it's been stuck below 50 since mid-2022. Weak China demand and auto sector troubles are dragging it down. Services should tick down to 51.1 from 51.5 but stay in expansion. There's resilience there, but momentum is fading. It's a mixed bag: factories contracting, services expanding. That leaves the euro exposed. Manufacturing above 50 would spark relief rallies. Misses on both would lean dovish for the ECB and hit the euro hard, especially if US data stays firm later.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Support: 1.1542 (October low), 1.1600. Resistance: 1.1728-1.1760. Weak PMI data could push pair down to test 1.1600-1.1580 support zone.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD if both PMIs disappoint at 1.1653
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1710 above consolidation
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1542 support
UK Flash PMIs
8:30 AM GMT
Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast: 46.9 | Previous: 46.2
Flash Services PMI - Forecast: 51.4 | Previous: 50.8
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
UK manufacturing stays weak at 46.9, though that's a slight improvement. Brexit friction and soft European demand keep it down. The real focus is services, which should rebound to 51.4 from 50.8. Services are 80% of UK GDP, so this matters more. Combine strong services with Wednesday's 4.0% CPI, and the BoE has a problem—inflation pressure in the labor-heavy services sector isn't going away. A service beat above 51.5 reinforces BoE hawkishness and pumps sterling. Manufacturing weakness is mostly priced in unless services disappoint too.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3255. Resistance at 1.3510-1.3535. Strong services PMI could trigger breakout above 1.3450 toward 1.3500. Break below 1.3300 opens path to 1.3250-1.3200.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD if both PMIs disappoint at 1.3432
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3380
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3250
US Inflation Data
12:30 PM GMT
Core CPI m/m - Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
CPI m/m - Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.4%
CPI y/y - Previous: 2.9%
Impact: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, DXY, Gold
US inflation should hold steady—Core CPI at 0.3% monthly (3.6% annualized), headline at 0.4%. Both are well above the Fed's 2% target. With the government shutdown limiting data, this CPI report gets extra attention. Inflation, this sticky backs the Fed's slow-and-steady approach: 25bp cuts, not 50bp. That's dollar-positive. A firm print reinforces hawkish Fed bets and lifts the greenback across the board. But if core drops below 0.2%, the dollar weakens fast and bigger rate-cut bets come back.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Support: 1.1542 (October low). Resistance: 1.1728-1.1760. Major volatility window at 12:30 PM GMT.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD at 1.1653
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1710 above consolidation
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1542 support
US Flash PMIs
1:45 PM GMT
Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast: 51.9 | Previous: 52.0
Flash Services PMI - Forecast: 53.5 | Previous: 54.2
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, DXY
US PMIs should show expansion continues—manufacturing at 51.9, services at 53.5. Both stay above 50, unlike Europe's weakness. That gap highlights how the US economy is holding up despite higher rates. The dollar benefits from that relative strength. Coming after CPI, strong PMIs lock in the "growth plus inflation equals hawkish Fed" story. If both beat forecasts, USD rallies extend. But if manufacturing falls below 51.5 or services drops under 53.0, growth worries creep in and traders take profits on dollar longs.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support: 146.68. Resistance: 153.24.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY continuation toward 151.50
📍 Stop-loss: 150.50
🎯 Take-profit 2: 153.50
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
