Currency Clash: Unmissable Trade Ideas and Economic Data This Week
Looking to stay ahead in the forex market next week? You’re in the right place. From June 30 to July 4, the calendar is packed with high‐impact news that could shake up major currency pairs and open up fresh trading opportunities.
Let’s break down the week, day by day, so you can spot the biggest movers and set up your trades with confidence.
Monday, June 30, 2025
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
(1:30 GMT)
Forecast: 49.6 | Previous: 49.5
Impact: USD/CNY, AUD/USD, EUR/CNY
China's manufacturing sector shrank for the fourth month straight. The 49.6 reading beat the 49.5 forecast by a hair, but it's still stuck below the 50 mark that separates growth from decline. Trade wars and a housing market in shambles continue to drag down the world's second-largest economy. Still, that tiny uptick might signal the worst is behind us.
Technical Setup
USD/CNY: Immediate support at 7.1668 (monthly consolidation low). Resistance at 7.2800
A break above 7.1769 could trigger further weakness in CNY toward 7.1945
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CNY on break above 7.1769
📍 Stop-loss: 7.1655 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 7.1948 resistance
German Preliminary CPI m/m
(6:30 GMT)
Forecast: TBD | Previous: 0.1%
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
German inflation stayed flat at 0.1% for the month. The eurozone keeps cooling down price-wise, which is exactly what the ECB wants to see on the path back to their 2% target. But here's the thing - steady inflation won't give the euro much of a boost since it takes the heat off the central bank to get more aggressive with rates.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Support at 1.1448 (recent pullback level). Resistance at 1.1735
Currently consolidating around 1.1714 with potential for range-bound trading
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on rejection at 1.1670
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1735 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1580 support
Tuesday, July 1, 2025
Central Bank Governor Speeches
(1:30 GMT)
Forecast: BOE Governor Bailey, BOJ Governor Ueda, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Impact: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, DXY
Three major central bank chiefs speaking on the same day? That's going to shake things up big time. Powell keeps saying the Fed needs to wait on rate cuts because nobody knows what these tariffs will do. Over in Japan, Ueda is ready to hike rates if their economy keeps improving. Meanwhile, Bailey sees the UK job market getting softer and expects rates to keep dropping.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3388 (bullish channel support). Resistance at 1.3765
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD above 1.3548 (Bailey dovish comments)
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3410 below channel support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3830 channel target
ISM Manufacturing PMI
(2:00 GMT)
Forecast: 48.8 | Previous: 48.5
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, DXY
US factories inched up to 48.8 from 48.5 - barely better but still shrinking for three months running. Trade drama and expensive borrowing costs keep weighing on manufacturers. Any number below 50 means trouble, and we're still there.
Technical Setup
DXY: Range support at 96.79. Resistance at 98.93
Break above 97.00 could signal USD strength resumption
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy DXY on break above 97.20
📍 Stop-loss: 96.50
🎯 Take-profit: 98.93 next resistance
JOLTS Job Openings
(2:00 GMT)
Forecast: TBD | Previous: 7.39M
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
Job openings dipped from 7.4 million to 7.39 million. Not a huge drop, but it shows hiring demand is cooling off bit by bit. The Fed has been waiting for exactly this kind of gradual slowdown. It backs up their go-slow approach on rate cuts since the job market is still pretty tight overall.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Consolidation around 145.00. Key levels at 143.50 support and 146.20 resistance
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY below 143.50
📍 Stop-loss: 144.50 above recent low
🎯 Take-profit: 142.10 next support
Wednesday, July 2, 2025
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
(12:15 GMT)
Forecast: 81K | Previous: 37K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, DXY
Private companies added 81,000 jobs last month - way better than the lousy 37,000 from before. Looks like the private sector might be finding its footing again after some rough patches. Friday's official jobs report will tell us if this momentum is real, and it could give the dollar a nice boost.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Testing resistance at 1.1735. Key support at 1.1448
Break above 1.1700 could target 1.1800 next resistance level
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on rejection at 1.1700
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1750 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1620 support
Thursday, July 3, 2025
Swiss CPI m/m
(6:30 GMT)
Forecast: TBD | Previous: 0.1%
Impact: EUR/CHF, USD/CHF
Swiss prices held steady at 0.1% monthly. Switzerland keeps things calm on the inflation front, which means their central bank can stay loose with policy. Compare that to the wild swings other countries are dealing with.
Technical Setup
USD/CHF: Range trading between 0.8201 and 0.7980
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CHF at 0.8015 between key levels
📍 Stop-loss: [not specified]
🎯 Take-profit: 0.8120
US Employment Data Triple Release
(12:30 GMT)
Forecast: Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Previous: 0.4% | Non-Farm Employment Change: 120K (Previous: 139K) | Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (Previous: 4.2%)
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY
The jobs picture is all over the map. Wages jumped 0.4% while hiring slowed to 120,000 from 139,000. Unemployment crept up to 4.3%. The Fed wanted to see the job market cool down, and that's exactly what's happening. Workers are still getting paid more, but fewer people are getting hired - a real puzzle for policymakers.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Critical juncture at 145.00 with support at 143.80 and resistance at 147.50
Break above 146.20 could target 147.00-148.00 range
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on break above 146.00 (strong employment data)
📍 Stop-loss: 145.00 below key level
🎯 Take-profit: 148.00 technical target
ISM Services PMI
(2:00 GMT)
Forecast: 50.8 | Previous: 49.9
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, DXY
Services bounced back above 50 to hit 50.8, crushing the previous 49.9 reading. Since services make up most of the US economy, this turnaround matters a lot. Growth is back in the sector, which should prop up the broader economy and might sway Fed thinking.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Vulnerable to decline below 1.1735 support
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD below 1.1735 on ISM Services strength
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1760
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1570
Friday, July 4, 2025
Italian Retail Sales m/m
(8:00 GMT)
Forecast: TBD | Previous: 0.7%
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Italian shoppers went on a spending spree - retail sales jumped to 0.7% from just 0.1% before. That's a big deal for the eurozone's third-biggest economy. Italians are feeling confident enough to open their wallets again, and that could lift the whole region and strengthen the euro.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Testing resistance at 1.1700 (psychological level). Support at 1.1450
Break above 1.1700 could target 1.1800 next resistance level
RSI at 60.82 suggests moderate buying pressure with room for further upside
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on break above 1.1700
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1620 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1800 technical target
UK Construction PMI
(8:30 GMT)
Forecast: TBD | Previous: 47.9
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
UK construction improved to 47.9 from 46.6 - the smallest decline since January. The sector is still shrinking since it's below 50, but the bleeding is slowing down. Construction might be small compared to the overall UK economy, but it's sensitive to rates and confidence. Home building stayed weak at 45.1, showing the housing market is still struggling.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Strong support at 1.3388 (static level). Resistance at 1.3765
Currently trading above 1.3700 near multi-year highs
RSI above 60 maintaining bullish bias with upside momentum intact
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on dips toward 1.3580 support
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3530 below 100-period SMA
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3813 (100% projection target)
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.
