Critical FX Week: Global Events (Australia, US, UK, China) Set Volatility Tone

Want to stay ahead in forex next week? You’re in the right place. From August 11–15, high-impact releases out of Australia, the US, the UK, and China could shake major pairs and set the tone for volatility.

We’ll break it down day by day, focusing on key events marked by the red folder. We’ll discuss what’s forecast, why it matters, which pairs to watch, and how to position yourself with clear technical setups and trade ideas. Let’s prepare you to act decisively rather than react.

 

Monday, August 11, 2025

China New Loans

Tentative

Forecast: 360B CNY | Previous: 2240B CNY
Impact: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, CNY pairs

China's new loan data shows a sharp drop from June's massive 2.24 trillion CNY figure. July's forecast of 360 billion CNY looks dramatic, but it's actually normal seasonal behavior. Banks always pull back after June's lending spree. June hit a three-month high because of seasonal targets and government bond sales, so this pullback isn't worrying. What matters is what the data tells us about credit appetite and how well monetary policy is working right now.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Immediate support at 0.6419 (July low). Key resistance at 0.6620 (20-day MA). A weak reading below 300B CNY could pressure commodity currencies toward 0.6420 support area.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD below 0.6500
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6545 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6419 support

 

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

RBA Cash Rate Decision

04:30 GMT

Cash Rate Forecast: 3.60% | Previous: 3.85%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD

The RBA is almost guaranteed to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%. Every economist surveyed expects this move. Inflation dropped to 2.1% while unemployment climbed to 4.3%. Markets are even betting on a 51% chance they'll go bigger with a double cut to 3.35%. Governor Bullock's press conference afterward will be the real focus. Traders want to hear how worried she is about tariffs pushing up import prices and derailing their policy plans.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Currently trading around 0.6522. Key support at 0.6420 (July low), with immediate resistance at 0.6550–0.6570 area. Rising channel from May remains intact with 100-day MA providing dynamic support around 0.6500. Break below 0.6480 could trigger decline toward 0.6420–0.6450 zone. RSI showing bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD above 0.6542
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6490 below key support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600 resistance area

 

US Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m & CPI y/y

12:30 GMT

Core CPI Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
CPI m/m Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.7%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

This week's biggest moment comes with core CPI data. Economists expect it to jump to 0.3% monthly, which could push yearly core inflation past 3%. Goldman Sachs thinks it'll hit 0.33% because of tariff effects. Fed rate cut odds sit at 90% for September. If core CPI comes in above 0.4%, those dovish bets will disappear fast, and the dollar should rally hard.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Key support at 146.82 (daily pivot), resistance at 148.00 (daily R3). Weekly pivot at 148.54 is a critical level.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on hot CPI above 0.4% monthly core at 148.03
📍 Stop-loss: 146.80
🎯 Take-profit: 149.50

 

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Australian Wage Price Index q/q

01:30 GMT

Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: 0.9%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY

Australian wage growth should cool slightly to 0.8% quarterly from Q1's 0.9%. That slowdown backs up the RBA's cutting cycle since it shows less wage pressure on inflation. Markets will compare this directly with Tuesday's rate decision to see if the central bank's story holds up. Higher wage growth than expected could stop the RBA from cutting aggressively later.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Monitor consolidation following Tuesday's RBA decision. Key levels depend on prior day's central bank reaction. Uptrend channel from May remains intact with support from 100-day MA.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD below 0.6500
📍 Stop-loss: Based on Tuesday's post-RBA levels at 0.6540
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6420–0.6430 support zone

 

Thursday, August 14, 2025

Australian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

01:30 GMT

Employment Change Forecast: 25.3K | Previous: 2.0K
Unemployment Rate Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.3%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY

Job creation should bounce back to 25.3K after June's weak 2.0K gain. Unemployment should tick down to 4.2% from 4.3%. But June's details were messy—full-time jobs dropped 38,200 while part-time work jumped 40,200. That quality gap matters. Strong numbers here could make the RBA think twice about aggressive easing.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Post-RBA levels around 0.6500–0.6550 range expected. Key pivot at 0.6520 (current levels). Strong employment above 35K could push toward 0.6580–0.6600. Uptrend channel support from 100-day MA remains crucial for bullish continuation. Employment miss below 15K could pressure pair toward 0.6480 support.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on strong employment above 35K jobs at 0.6540
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6488
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600 psychological resistance

UK GDP m/m

06:00 GMT

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: –0.1%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

UK monthly GDP should recover to 0.2% in June after May's –0.1% drop. Back-to-back declines in April and May already put Q2 growth in danger. Anything below 0.0% would push BoE dovish bets even higher.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Currently around 1.3450, testing key resistance zone. Immediate support at 1.3140–1.3215 area. Key resistance at 1.3385–1.3400. RSI remains overbought above 70, suggesting potential correction. Break below 1.3140 could trigger decline toward 1.3060 and lower. Above 1.3385 would target 1.3590 extension.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on GDP miss below 0.0% below 1.3410
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3460 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3200 support level

US Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m & Unemployment Claims

12:30 GMT

Core PPI Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
PPI m/m Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
Unemployment Claims Forecast: 220K | Previous: 226K
Impact: USD pairs

Producer prices should rise 0.2% monthly for both headline and core. Add this to Tuesday's CPI data, and strong readings across both could kill more Fed dovish expectations.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3145 (August low), resistance at 1.3370 (head-and-shoulders neckline). Below 50/100 EMAs.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on GDP miss below 0.0% at 1.3383
📍 Stop-loss: GBP/USD 1.3460
🎯 Take-profit: GBP/USD 1.3100

 

Friday, August 15, 2025

US Core Retail Sales m/m & Retail Sales m/m

12:30 GMT

Core Retail Sales Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.5%
Retail Sales Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.6%
Impact: USD pairs

Retail sales should ease to 0.5% monthly after June's solid 0.6% jump. Core sales are forecast at 0.3%, down from 0.5%. Consumer strength still drives Fed thinking. Strong numbers here support hawks who want to keep rates higher.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Critical support at 1.1390. Resistance at 1.1787. Strong retail sales data (above 0.7%) typically provides 40–60 pip USD strength. Retail sales beats historically trigger immediate USD buying across majors.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on strong US retail data above 0.7% below 1.1610
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1696 minor resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1393 support zone

US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations

14:00 GMT

Consumer Sentiment Forecast: 62.2 | Previous: 61.7
Inflation Expectations Previous: 4.5%
Impact: USD pairs

Consumer sentiment should edge up to 62.2 from 61.7. But inflation expectations matter more—June's 4.5% reading already worried Fed officials. Anything above 4.7% would give hawks more ammunition to stay tough on policy.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Weekly close above 148.50 would be constructive for further gains. Key resistance at 148.05. Support at 146.78.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on retail sales beat above 0.7% and inflation expectations above 4.7% above 148.00
📍 Stop-loss: 146.60 intraday support
🎯 Take-profit: 150.50 weekly resistance

 

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.