Big Catalysts, Bigger Moves: What to Trade Across Majors This Week

Want to stay ahead of the forex market next week? You're in the right place. From October 13 to 17, 2025, we've got a packed calendar of high-impact events—from China's credit data to central bank speeches from Powell, Bailey, and Macklem—that could shake up major currency pairs and create real trading opportunities.

Let's break it down day by day, see which currencies are likely to move, and position ourselves to act.

 

Monday, October 13, 2025

China New Loans

Tentative

Forecast: 1460B | Previous: 590B
Impact: USD/CNY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

China's New Loans data signals a rebound in credit growth, with forecasts showing a sharp jump over August. Beijing’s liquidity push should support infrastructure and manufacturing, boosting risk appetite and commodity currencies.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD trading at 0.6484, support at 0.6450–0.6470, resistance 0.6590–0.6625.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on strong China credit data above 0.6520
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6450
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6580–0.6620

 

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Fed Chair Powell Speaks

16:20 GMT

Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Powell’s speech is key with FOMC members split on more cuts, and the government shutdown delaying economic prints. Traders will watch closely for clues on rate direction amid a Fed pivot to employment concerns over inflation.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY support at 146.65, resistance at 153.65–154.10.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on Powell hawkish tilt above 152.50
📍 Stop-loss: 151.00
🎯 Take-profit: 153.65–154.10

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

17:00 GMT

Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Banks rate at 4% with inflation still high (3.8%). Bailey's tone matters for November policy bets, especially concerns about wage-price pressures.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD testing support 1.3250–1.3280, resistance 1.3490–1.3520.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on dovish Bailey below 1.3380
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3400
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3270

 

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

RBA Governor Bullock Speaks

19:45 GMT

Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY

Bullock signals stable rates for now, but rising jobless risks mean data dependency. Aussie at 0.6484, watch for policy tone shifts.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD at 0.6484, support 0.6450–0.6470, resistance 0.6580–0.6625, 0.6665 key.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on hawkish Bullock above 0.6520
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6450
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6580–0.6620

 

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Australian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

12:30 GMT

Employment Change: 20K | Previous: –5.4K
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% | Previous: 4.2%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY

After last month’s decline, job growth is forecast to rebound; watch for the split between full-time and part-time sectors.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD support 0.6450–0.6470, resistance 0.6590–0.6620; break below 0.6450 targets 0.6380.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on strong jobs above 0.6520
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6450
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6580–0.6620

UK GDP m/m

06:00 GMT

Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.0%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Latest UK GDP should tick up a bit, driven by services, but manufacturing stays weak.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD support 1.3250–1.3280, resistance 1.3490–1.3520.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on GDP above 1.3300
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3250
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3350–1.3380

US Core PPI m/m (Tentative)

Tentative

Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: –0.1%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

PPI bounce indicates renewed cost pressures, but shutdown may delay release.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY support 146.65, resistance 153.65–154.10.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on strong PPI above 152.50
📍 Stop-loss: 151.00
🎯 Take-profit: 153.65–154.10

US PPI m/m (Tentative)

Tentative

Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: –0.1%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

Headline PPI expected to rise, confirming pressure across supply chains.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY bullish above 151.15, targeting 153.65–154.10.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on PPI strength above 152.50
📍 Stop-loss: 151.00
🎯 Take-profit: 153.65–154.10

US Core Retail Sales m/m (Tentative)

Tentative

Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.7%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

Core retail sales slowing points to softer consumer demand—watch for risk reversals on a miss.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY consolidation 152.75–153.25, strong data supports breakout.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on retail sales above 152.50
📍 Stop-loss: 151.15
🎯 Take-profit: 153.65–154.10

US Retail Sales m/m (Tentative)

Tentative

Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.6%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

Headline retail sales expected to cool, which could compound broader growth worries.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY resistance at 153.65–154.10, support at 151.15.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on retail sales beat above 152.50
📍 Stop-loss: 151.00
🎯 Take-profit: 153.65, extension to 154.10

US Unemployment Claims (Tentative)

Tentative

Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

Market will closely watch claims as the Fed pivots toward jobs data in rate decisions.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY bullish above 151.15, targeting 153.65–154.10.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on claims below 152.50
📍 Stop-loss: 151.00
🎯 Take-profit: 153.65–154.10

BOC Governor Macklem Speaks

17:30 GMT

Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY

Macklem's speech comes post-BoC rate hold, with focus on global trade headwinds and productivity challenges in Canada.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD trading at 1.4015, testing 1.4000, support 1.3960–1.3965, resistance 1.4030–1.4060.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on Macklem dovish tone above 1.4020
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3950
🎯 Take-profit: 1.4060–1.4100

 

Friday, October 17, 2025

Eurozone Final Core CPI y/y & Final CPI y/y

09:00 GMT

Previous Core CPI: 2.3% | Previous CPI: 2.2%
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY

Final eurozone readings confirm September’s uptick in inflation, with core CPI steady at 2.3%. The small uptick mostly reflects energy prices falling less and services inflation moving higher.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Critical support at 1.1575, downward targets 1.1520 and 1.1466. Currently near 1.1600 after worst weekly drop of 2025.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on confirmed inflation weakness below 1.1575
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1630
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1520

 

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.