Published:October 9, 2026

TD Securities Sees September Core CPI Moderating to 0.20% m/m

Troy Bening
Written byTroy Bening

TD Securities’ US economics team expects September US Core CPI to slow to 0.20% month-on-month, citing softer momentum in core services and the so-called supercore categories. The forecast points to a moderation in underlying inflation pressure ahead of the official release.

Drivers behind TD Securities’ Core CPI outlook

TD Securities highlights softer readings in core services and supercore as the main factors behind the anticipated slowdown. Those components have been watched closely by policymakers and market participants given their historically strong correlation with overall inflation persistence. The firm's view suggests a narrower set of upside risks within the core inflation picture for September.

What this development means for Forex traders

For currency markets, a moderation in core inflation momentum is relevant because it may influence expectations about the Federal Reserve's policy path, which in turn can affect Treasury yields and dollar flows. Markets may focus on whether the moderation is seen as a durable disinflation signal or a temporary lull, and the reaction will depend on the actual CPI print and subsequent Federal Reserve communications.

  • Dollar gauge (DXY): The dollar may remain sensitive to shifts in inflation expectations and how those affect real yields and policy pricing.
  • Major FX pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD may be influenced by changes in US yield and rate expectations relative to their counterparts.
  • USD/JPY and gold: These instruments may also reflect shifts in safe-haven and carry dynamics tied to US yield moves.

Traders should note that TD Securities’ projection is a forecast and not a market outcome; the actual market response will hinge on the published CPI figures and subsequent commentary from policymakers and market-moving events.

Looking ahead, markets will monitor the official September CPI release, any immediate moves in Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve remarks for clarity on whether the moderation in core inflation is broad-based enough to alter policy expectations.