Reuters poll: Economists expect BoE to hold Bank Rate through year-end

A Reuters poll of economists, reported by FXStreet, indicates that the Bank of England is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged for the remainder of 2026. The survey reflects a broadly cautious stance among economists as inflation cools and growth slows, reinforcing expectations of a steadier UK rate path for the months ahead.

Reuters poll underlines a cautious UK policy outlook and gilt yield context

The poll highlights that policymakers may opt to wait rather than adjust policy in the near term. That anticipated pause is seen alongside commentary pointing to cooling inflation and weakening growth, factors that inform Bank of England decisions. Markets may interpret a continued hold as supportive of steadier gilt yields compared with periods of active tightening, with implications for how investors price UK interest rate risk relative to abroad.

Why Forex traders should care and which instruments to watch

For currency markets, the implication of a prolonged neutral Bank Rate centres on interest rate differentials, which remain a key driver of capital flows. GBP exchange rates may remain sensitive to changes in the relative outlook between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, as well as to updates on UK macro data and BoE communications. DXY and GBP/USD are likely to be monitored for signs that market expectations about US rates are diverging from those priced into UK policy, while EUR/USD may reflect cross-currents from euro-area data and broader dollar strength.

Gilt yields are also relevant because they feed into perceptions of the pound’s carry advantage and the pricing of UK duration risk. A steadier gilt curve could temper volatility in sterling pairs, whereas any shift in US rate expectations could alter the relative attractiveness of GBP versus the dollar.

Markets will now watch upcoming UK inflation and growth releases, Bank of England speeches and any fresh Reuters or analyst commentary for signals on the durability of the poll’s outlook. Equally important will be US data and Federal Reserve messaging, which will help determine how rate differentials evolve and how currency pairs such as GBP/USD and DXY respond.