European equities: cautious growth is expected at the open

European markets may open close to zero or with a slight increase on Wednesday. Investors are assessing the implications of the Black Sea security agreements reached by the US in the context of the war in Ukraine, and waiting for clarity on Donald Trump's trade policy before introducing new tariffs next week.

Despite Trump's hints of possible easing for some countries, tensions remain in the markets.

Global context

Asian markets showed multidirectional dynamics.

The US dollar fluctuated after data on the consumer confidence index fell to a 12-year low in March, adding to recession fears.

US copper hit an all-time high on concerns over tariffs and China's plans to stimulate consumption.

Gold declined slightly and oil rose amid a decline in U.S. inventories.

Black Sea agreements and geopolitics

Sentiment was supported by U.S. agreements with Ukraine and Russia on safe navigation in the Black Sea and a ban on attacks on energy facilities. However, the Kremlin made fulfillment of the agreement contingent on the lifting of Western sanctions, leaving questions without clear answers.

Key events of the day

UK inflation data and the government's spring statement.

Statistics on durable goods orders in the US.

US markets: three days of growth

US stocks ended the third session up on the back of:

Lower consumer confidence (fourth consecutive month of declines).

A softened version of Trump's tariff plan.

Moody's warned of risks to the US budget: Trump's policies could make it harder to tackle rising deficits and government debt.

Indexes:

Nasdaq +0.5%

S&P 500 +0.2%

Dow Jones +0.1%

Europe: yesterday's gains

European stocks rose on Tuesday on the back of an improving business climate in Germany:

STOXX 600 +0.7%

DAX (Germany) +1.1%

CAC 40 (France) +1.1%

FTSE 100 (UK) +0.3%

Bottom line: Markets remain in wait-and-see mode, balancing positive signals with unresolved risks.