Contents
Updated: February 8, 2026

The USD “double-wave” — payrolls on Wednesday, CPI on Friday, plus UK GDP and Bank of Russia

Reading Time: 4min
The USD “double-wave” — payrolls on Wednesday, CPI on Friday, plus UK GDP and Bank of Russia
Margarita Spanou
Written byMargarita Spanou
Christine Richards
Reviewed byChristine Richards
Victor Jacobson
Fact Checked byVictor Jacobson

This is a rates week with an unusual rhythm. The US labor report hits on Wednesday, then the market gets the real “truth test” on Friday’s CPI. That split often creates two distinct reactions: first, a repricing on jobs; second, confirmation (or reversal) on inflation.

Europe’s anchor is UK monthly GDP on Thursday. And Friday brings an extra FX volatility source via the Bank of Russia key-rate decision. Times below are GMT (CET guide in brackets). Ideas are for education only and not investment advice.

Day-by-day catalysts

Monday, Feb 9

A quieter start — typically a “level-setting” day. Mark last week’s reaction zones and define what would invalidate your bias before the main events.

Tuesday, Feb 10

US: Advance Retail Sales

Time: 13:30 GMT (14:30 CET)

In focus: USD, yields, gold

Retail sales can shift growth expectations quickly. In a payrolls-and-CPI week, the first move may not stick — watch for acceptance after the initial spike.

Wednesday, Feb 11

US: Employment Situation (January payrolls)

Time: 13:30 GMT (14:30 CET)

In focus: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold, equity indices

The first climax. The market trades the combo: jobs + unemployment + wages. Strong jobs with firm wage growth usually lift yields and support the USD — but with CPI still ahead, Wednesday often delivers “impulse + pause.”

Thursday, Feb 12

UK: Monthly GDP estimate (December)

Time: 07:00 GMT (08:00 CET)

In focus: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

UK growth data reframes the BoE narrative quickly. A weak print tends to weigh on GBP via softer rate expectations; resilience supports sterling.

Friday, Feb 13

US: CPI (January)

Time: 13:30 GMT (14:30 CET)

In focus: USD, gold, rates

The week’s verifier. CPI either validates the payrolls-driven repricing or flips it. A hot CPI can erase a post-NFP USD dip; a cool CPI can finish a USD downshift.

Russia: Bank of Russia key-rate decision

Time: guide 10:30 GMT (11:30 CET) (13:30 Moscow)

In focus: USD/RUB, EUR/RUB (and broader EM tone)

Three ways the week can trade

Scenario A: USD-bullish

Strong wages/jobs and CPI doesn’t cool. Markets reprice a firmer US rates path.

  • Likely reaction: USD and yields up; gold pressured.
  • Execution: trade confirmation (break-hold-retest) rather than first-tick spikes.

Scenario B: USD-bearish

Labor cools and CPI confirms disinflation. The market leans more dovish on the path.

  • Likely reaction: USD down; risk tone improves; gold supported.
  • Execution: look for post-release structure, not pre-release guesses.

Scenario C: Cross-currents

Soft jobs but hot CPI (or the reverse). That mix tends to produce whipsaws and range trading.

  • Likely reaction: higher intraday volatility, false breaks.
  • Execution: smaller size, wait for stabilization, favor retests.

Weekly guidelines

  • Save risk for Wed/Fri: that’s where the week gets decided.
  • Trade the package: payrolls + unemployment + wages; CPI + core.
  • Respect news conditions: wider spreads, faster spikes, higher slippage risk.

Disclaimer: for information and education only; not investment advice.