Market-Moving Events Week Overview: July 21-25, 2025

Looking to make the most out of your forex trades this coming week? You’re in the perfect place. The July 21–25 calendar is packed with high-stakes economic data and central bank decisions set to shake up the major currency pairs.

Let’s break down each day’s market movers, highlight which currencies deserve your attention, and lay out the clear setups and strategies to help you trade with confidence.

 

Monday, July 21, 2025

China 1-Year Loan Prime Rate Decision

01:00 GMT

Forecast: 3.00% | Previous: 3.00%
Impact: USD/CNY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

The People's Bank of China will likely keep the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.00%. Beijing is trying to support growth without destabilizing the yuan, especially with trade tensions still simmering. The central bank has been using various tools this year—adjusting reserve requirements and making targeted cuts when needed. Holding rates steady would show they're sticking with their recent gradual approach.

Technical Setup
USD/CNY: Key resistance at 7.18 (previous highs). Support established around 7.15–7.20 levels. A dovish hold could push CNY weaker toward 7.35 target.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CNY on policy hold confirmation above 7.19
📍 Stop-loss: 7.18 below immediate support
🎯 Take-profit: 7.32 near resistance zone

China 5-Year Loan Prime Rate Decision

01:00 GMT

Forecast: 3.50% | Previous: 3.50%
Impact: USD/CNY, AUD/CNY, EUR/CNY

China's 5-year LPR should also stay put at 3.50%. This rate matters more for mortgages and the struggling property market. The PBOC doesn't want to rock the boat too much—they need to prop up housing while keeping financial risks in check. Recent moves suggest they'd rather stabilize the yuan first, then use other policy tools later.

Technical Setup
AUD/CNY: Trading near 4.58–4.70 range. Resistance at 4.72 (monthly highs). Support zone around 4.58–4.59.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/CNY on unchanged 5-year LPR
📍 Stop-loss: 4.70 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 4.60 support level

 

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

BOE Governor Bailey Speech

09:15 GMT

Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

BoE Governor Bailey will speak after some surprising policy moves lately. He's been pushing this "gradual and careful" message, saying rates are still heading down but each meeting brings new uncertainties. His recent talks have touched on trade worries, a softening job market, and making sure inflation actually sticks at 2%. Everyone will be listening for clues about August, especially after we've seen strong employment but weak retail sales.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Currently consolidating around 1.3400–1.3770. Key resistance at 1.3770. Support holding at 1.3350.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on hawkish Bailey comments above 1.3440
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3390 below support confluence
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3500 near resistance zone

 

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

US Existing Home Sales

14:00 GMT

Forecast: 4.01M | Previous: 4.03M
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

US home sales should dip slightly to 4.01 million from 4.03 million. High mortgage rates and affordability issues keep weighing on the market. May's numbers surprised everyone with a bounce back, but the National Association of Realtors keeps saying high rates are keeping buyers away. This data matters because housing is so sensitive to interest rate moves, and it tells us a lot about consumer confidence.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support zone at 142.10. Resistance at 149.10 (recent highs). Key level to watch at 145.60 midpoint.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on weak housing data below 149.00
📍 Stop-loss: 149.80 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 145.50 support target

 

Thursday, July 24, 2025

RBA Governor Bullock Speech

03:05 GMT

Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/AUD

RBA Governor Bullock will try to explain why they shocked markets by holding rates at 3.85% in July. Most traders expected a cut, but the board voted 6–3 to pause. Bullock said it was about "timing rather than direction"—they want solid proof inflation is dropping to 2.5% before cutting again. The RBA still plans to ease, but they want to see the data first.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Key support at -0.6460. Resistance zone at 0.6590. Critical level at 0.6540 for trend direction.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on dovish Bullock comments above 0.6540
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6470 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6680 resistance area

French Flash PMIs

07:15 GMT

Manufacturing Forecast: 48.5 | Previous: 48.1
Services Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.6
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF

French PMI numbers should improve slightly, but both manufacturing and services will probably stay below 50. Manufacturing has been hit by weak demand, supply problems, and trouble in the auto sector. June showed production falling again with new orders dropping at the fastest pace since February. Services aren't doing much better—consumers are pulling back and uncertainty is everywhere.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Trading range 1.1580–1.1650. Key resistance at 1.1671. Support confluence at 1.1550.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on weak French PMI below 1.1600
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1640 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1560 support zone

German Flash PMIs

07:30 GMT

Manufacturing Forecast: 49.4 | Previous: 49.0
Services Forecast: 50.0 | Previous: 49.7
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

German PMIs look more promising. Services might actually hit 50.0, which would mark expansion territory. Manufacturing has been getting better, with June hitting 49.0—the best reading since August 2022. New orders are up and production has grown for four straight months. Public spending plans and hopes for broader recovery are driving the improvement.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Critical resistance at 1.1671. Support holding at 1.1550. Break above 1.1670 targets 1.1850.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on strong German PMI above 1.1675
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1625 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1850 resistance break

UK Flash PMIs

08:30 GMT

Manufacturing Forecast: 48.1 | Previous: 47.7
Services Forecast: 52.9 | Previous: 52.8
Impact: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP

UK services should stay strong at 52.9, showing the sector is holding up better than manufacturing. June hit 52.8, the strongest since August 2024, with order books improving even as companies cut jobs. Manufacturing is still contracting but got better in June at 47.7—the smallest decline since January.

Technical Setup
GBP/JPY: Support at 198.00. Resistance at 199.95. Critical level at 198.33 midpoint.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/JPY on better UK PMI above 199.00
📍 Stop-loss: 198.00 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 200.50 resistance area

ECB Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement

12:15 GMT

Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.15%
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF

The ECB will probably keep rates at 2.15% after eight straight cuts totaling 275 basis points. Inflation is at their 2% target and deposit rates sit at a "broadly neutral" 2.00%. But trade policy uncertainty is making things complicated. Recent meeting minutes show officials want to stay flexible given all the global unknowns.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Key decision level at 1.1670–1.1550. Break above 1.1680 targets 1.1830. Support confluence at 1.1550.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on hawkish ECB hold above 1.1655
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1605 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1830 resistance target

US Initial Jobless Claims

12:30 GMT

Forecast: 229K | Previous: 221K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

US jobless claims should tick up to 229K from 221K, but that's still historically low. Last week marked five straight declines to the lowest since mid-April, showing the job market is still solid despite some cooling in hiring. Continuing claims have stayed high near 1.96 million—the highest since 2021—meaning people who lose jobs are having trouble finding new ones.

Technical Setup
DXY: Support at 97.60. Resistance at 98.50. Key level at 97.50 for trend direction.

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell DXY at 97.00
📍 Stop-loss: 98.50 resistance area
🎯 Take-profit: 96.00 support area

ECB Press Conference

12:45 GMT

Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY

Lagarde's press conference will be the main event. She'll give us the real story on what the ECB is thinking about the economy and future policy. With mixed data and global uncertainties swirling, traders will hang on every word about September moves and how trade tensions might affect eurozone growth and inflation.

Technical Setup
EUR/JPY holds 173.15; trendline support at 171.85

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/JPY on dovish Lagarde break below 171.85
📍 Stop-loss: 173.00
🎯 Take-profit: 170.90

US Flash PMIs

13:45 GMT

Manufacturing Forecast: 52.7 | Previous: 52.9
Services Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 52.9
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD

US PMI data should show both sectors still expanding. Manufacturing might cool slightly to 52.7 from June's three-year high of 52.9. That June number was huge—the sharpest factory expansion in over three years thanks to better orders and more hiring. Services should edge up to 53.0, keeping up the growth streak despite slowing from May's 53.7.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Support at 1.3550. Resistance at 1.3777. Key level at 1.3740.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on strong US PMI above 1.3755
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3705 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3795 resistance zone

 

Friday, July 25, 2025

UK Retail Sales MoM

06:00 GMT

Forecast: 1.2% | Previous: -2.7%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

UK retail sales should bounce back hard to 1.2% monthly growth after May's brutal -2.7% drop. May's decline came from inflation worries and cautious consumers. But June data from the British Retail Consortium showed sales heating up 3.1% year-over-year thanks to good weather and better consumer mood. A strong recovery would boost sterling and show consumers aren't giving up despite economic headwinds.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Key resistance at 1.3480. Support established at 1.3369. Break above 1.3490 targets 1.3700.

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on strong retail sales above 1.3465
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3415 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3700

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.