Forex Weekly Outlook: Key Trades & Analysis for July 14-18, 2025
Looking to sharpen your forex edge for the week ahead? You’re in the right place. From Monday, July 14th through Friday, July 18th, 2025, the calendar is packed with high-impact events that could shake up major currency pairs and deliver fresh trading opportunities. We’ll walk you through each day’s key releases, show you which pairs are most likely to move, and help you spot setups that could turn volatility into profit.
Let’s dive in and see where the action will be — so you can position yourself for the best possible results.
Monday, July 14, 2025
China New Loans
Tentative GMT
Forecast: 1960B CNY | Previous: 620B CNY
Impact: USD/CNY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
China's new loans data tells us a lot about what Beijing is doing with monetary policy and how healthy their banking sector looks. We're seeing a massive drop here—from 1960B CNY down to just 620B CNY in the forecast. That's the People's Bank of China pulling back hard on credit conditions. They're being extra careful right now with all the trade tensions and domestic economic problems piling up. When China's loan growth weakens like this, it usually means less stimulus flowing through the economy. AUD and NZD tend to get hit because of how closely tied they are to Chinese trade.
Technical Setup
USD/CNY: Currently testing trendline resistance level 7.18. Weak loan data could push the pair toward 7.30 target. Support at 7.15 (recent consolidation low).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CNY on weak loan data above 7.18
📍 Stop-loss: 7.15 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 7.30 resistance zone
Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Canada CPI Data
12:30 GMT
CPI m/m Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.6%
Median CPI y/y Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.0%
Trimmed CPI y/y Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.0%
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY
Canada's inflation numbers should show things heating up on the monthly side. CPI m/m is forecast to jump from 0.2% all the way to 0.6%. That's a pretty big move that could shake up what the Bank of Canada does next. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, the Canadian dollar might get a boost. Markets would probably dial back bets on aggressive BoC rate cuts. But the annual core measures are staying put at 3.0%, which suggests the underlying inflation pressure isn't getting out of hand.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Testing 1.3755 resistance, support at 1.3554. Strong CPI could pressure pair below 1.3200.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD on strong CPI below 1.3630
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3730 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3540 next support level
US CPI Data
12:30 GMT
Core CPI m/m Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
CPI m/m Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.4%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
US inflation looks like it's cooling off more. Both core and headline CPI are forecast to drop significantly—from 0.3% down to just 0.1% monthly. The yearly rate should ease from 2.6% to 2.4%, getting closer to the Fed's 2% target. If this cooling trend keeps up, it gives the Fed more room to stay dovish. The dollar could weaken as markets price out rate hike expectations.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Range-bound between 142.30-147.50, currently near 147.30. Softer CPI could pressure pair toward 145.00 support.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on soft CPI below 146.20
📍 Stop-loss: 147.50 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 143.00 support zone
BOE Governor Bailey Speech
20:00 GMT
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
Everyone's going to be hanging on every word from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech. Traders want clues about where the BoE is heading with all this persistent inflation still hanging around. Bailey's been talking about taking a "gradual and careful" approach to cutting rates. But his tone about inflation risks and the economic outlook will really matter here. Hawkish comments could lift the pound, while anything dovish might pressure GBP since UK inflation is still running hot.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Key resistance at 1.3760, support at 1.3385. Hawkish speech could trigger break above 1.3760.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on hawkish Bailey comments above 1.3535 (fib 0.618%)
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3380 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3770 next resistance
Wednesday, July 16, 2025
UK CPI
6:00 GMT
CPI y/y Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 3.4%
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
UK inflation is likely to stay elevated at 3.4% yearly—way above the BoE's 2% target. This stubborn inflation pressure backs up the BoE's cautious stance on rate cuts. It might also keep supporting the pound underneath. The data will be huge for figuring out whether the central bank can move ahead with expected rate cuts or if they need to stay more restrictive.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Testing 1.3490 (0.628 fib level). Inline or higher CPI could support pound strength.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy GBP/USD on CPI meeting expectations above 1.3490
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3385 below minor support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3700 target level
US PPI Data
12:30 GMT
Core PPI m/m Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
PPI m/m Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
US Producer Price Index should moderate even more. Both core and headline PPI are forecast to ease to 0.1% monthly. This continued disinflation at the producer level backs up the idea that inflation pressures are fading throughout the supply chain. It might also reinforce the Fed's patient approach to monetary policy.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Consolidating in 142.50-147.50 range. Weak PPI could pressure pair toward lower end of range.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY on weak PPI below 146.00
📍 Stop-loss: 146.50 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 142.50 support zone
Thursday, July 17, 2025
Australia Employment Data
1:30 GMT
Employment Change Forecast: 21.0K | Previous: -2.5K
Unemployment Rate Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY
Australian employment data should show a sharp turnaround from last month's strong 21.0K gain to a decline of 2.5K. Even with this expected weakness in job creation, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.1%. That points to a labor market that's still holding up overall. The RBA watches employment data closely for policy decisions, so any big surprise could shift rate expectations.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Range-bound between 0.6484-0.6590. Weak employment could trigger break below 0.6500.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD on weak employment below 0.6560
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6595 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6500 psychological level
US Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
12:30 GMT
Core Retail Sales m/m Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.3%
Retail Sales m/m Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.9%
Unemployment Claims Forecast: 234K | Previous: 227K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
US retail sales should show some real weakness. Core retail sales are forecast to drop 0.3% while headline sales fall 0.9%. That would be a concerning flip from positive growth and might signal consumer spending is under stress. At the same time, unemployment claims should improve to 227K from 234K, showing the labor market is still resilient. This split between consumer spending and employment conditions will be the key thing for markets to figure out.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Key level at 146.00 for direction. Mixed data could drive range-bound trading.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/JPY based on dominant data theme 145.80
📍 Stop-loss: 147.70
🎯 Take-profit: 142.75
Friday, July 18, 2025
US Consumer Sentiment
14:00 GMT
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Forecast: 61.4 | Previous: 60.7
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations Forecast: n/a | Previous: Data 5.0%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
US consumer sentiment should improve modestly to 61.4 from 60.7, but it's still way below historical averages. The University of Michigan survey gives us crucial insights into consumer confidence and spending intentions. That's important since consumer spending drives about two-thirds of US economic activity. Inflation expectations at 5.0% are still elevated, showing ongoing concerns about price pressures even though actual inflation data has been moderating recently.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: End-of-week positioning around 146.00 level. Sentiment data could influence weekly close.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on strong sentiment above 143.30
📍 Stop-loss: 142.66 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 147.50 resistance zone
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.