Key Market Movers This Week: Central Bank Decisions, Jobs Data, and Economic Indicators
Looking to make the most of your forex trades next week? You're in the right place. From July 7 to July 11, the calendar is packed with high-impact events — central bank decisions, employment reports, and market-moving data — that could shake up major currency pairs and open up fresh trading opportunities.
Let’s break down the week, day by day, spotlighting the news that could move the markets and how you can position yourself to take advantage.
Monday, July 7, 2025
Sentix Investor Confidence
08:30 GMT
Forecast: 1.1 | Previous: 0.2
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
The Sentix Investor Confidence Index tracks economic health across the eurozone. June's jump from -8.1 to 0.2 was a major turnaround—the first time we've seen positive territory since July 2024. This shift shows growing optimism about eurozone prospects, especially in Germany where investor sentiment hit its best level since March 2022.
If the reading beats the 1.1 forecast, it would show European economic recovery is gaining steam. That could boost the euro.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Currently trading around 1.1780-1.1800 range. Support at 1.1717 (recent lows). Resistance at 1.1830. Strong confidence data could push EUR/USD toward 1.1850-1.1880 resistance zone.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on strong Sentix data above 1.1800
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1750 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1850 resistance
Retail Sales m/m
09:00 GMT
Forecast: -0.8% | Previous: 0.1%
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Eurozone retail sales tell us how consumers are spending and whether domestic demand is holding up. The expected -0.8% monthly drop is a sharp turn from last month's 0.1% gain. This suggests consumer confidence and economic momentum might be weakening.
Technical Setup
EUR/USD: Negative retail sales surprise could target 1.1720-1.1680 support levels. Strong data above expectations might support recovery toward 1.1850.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on weak retail sales below 1.1750
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1820 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1680 support
Tuesday, July 8, 2025
Cash Rate Decision
04:30 GMT
Forecast: 3.60% | Previous: 3.85%
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD
The Reserve Bank of Australia has a big decision ahead. Nearly everyone expects a 25 basis point cut to 3.60%. All the major Australian banks are calling for easing, and markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a cut. This move would respond to cooling inflation and weakening economic momentum after the aggressive rate hikes we've seen.
Recent data backs up the easing case—inflation is now within the RBA's 2-3% target range and labor market conditions are softening. But Governor Michele Bullock has been clear that more cuts aren't guaranteed. They'll be watching the data closely, taking a measured approach to loosening policy.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Currently around 0.6570. Support at 0.6536 (recent lows). Resistance at 0.6590. Expected cut could pressure AUD toward 0.6480-0.6450 levels. Hawkish surprise might drive rally toward 0.6650.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD on expected cut below 0.6550
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6620 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6480 support
RBA Rate Statement
04:30 GMT
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY
The RBA's statement will be key for understanding where they're headed next. After the widely expected 25 basis point cut, markets will dig into the language about future easing and economic outlook. The big question is whether the RBA sees this as a one-time move or the start of a longer cutting cycle.
Technical Setup
AUD/USD: Currently trading around 0.6568, with immediate support at 0.6530 (recent lows). Key resistance at 0.6590 (psychological level). The pair remains within a bullish channel with technical indicators showing mixed signals.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell AUD/USD on dovish statement below 0.6550
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6620 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6480 support
RBA Press Conference
05:30 GMT
Impact: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY
Governor Michele Bullock's press conference will reveal more about the central bank's thinking beyond just the rate decision. Her comments will be crucial for understanding the policy path ahead, especially with global trade uncertainties swirling. Markets will listen closely to her tone on inflation expectations, growth outlook, and how fast they might cut rates going forward.
Technical Setup
AUD/JPY: Strong bullish momentum above 94.50 could target 95.67 resistance, while weakness below 94.40 might trigger a decline toward 93.69 (50-day EMA).
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/JPY on hawkish surprise above 94.80
📍 Stop-loss: 94.30 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 95.50 resistance
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Official Cash Rate
02:00 GMT
Forecast: 3.25% | Previous: 3.25%
Impact: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep rates at 3.25%, pausing after six straight cuts that totaled 225 basis points since August 2024. Most economists (19 out of 27) expect no change, and all major New Zealand banks are forecasting a hold.
The decision comes down to mixed signals. Inflation is sitting at 2.5% within their 1-3% target range, but the economic recovery looks shaky.
Technical Setup
NZD/USD: Support at 0.6040 (monthly lows). Resistance at 0.6120. Hold as expected could support consolidation in 0.6040-0.6150 range. Surprise cut might trigger drop toward 0.6000.
Trading Idea
🎯 Range trade buy NZD/USD at 0.6040
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6020 below range
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6120 resistance
FOMC Meeting Minutes
18:00 GMT
Impact: USD/EUR, USD/JPY, DXY
The June Federal Reserve meeting minutes will show us what policymakers were thinking when they paused rate cuts. Chair Powell recently said the Fed would likely have started cutting rates if not for tariff worries, making this release especially important.
Markets will look for discussions about inflation expectations, labor market conditions, and how trade policies might affect monetary policy. The minutes could shift expectations for future Fed moves, especially since markets are currently pricing in about 47 basis points of easing by year-end.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support at 142.70. Resistance at 148.00. Hawkish minutes could drive USD strength toward 145.50.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on hawkish minutes above 145.00
📍 Stop-loss: 144.20 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 146.50 resistance
Thursday, July 10, 2025
Unemployment Claims
12:30 GMT
Forecast: n/a | Previous: 233K
Impact: USD/EUR, USD/JPY
U.S. initial jobless claims keep giving us timely snapshots of the labor market. The recent 233,000 reading came in below the 240,000 forecast, but continuing claims hit 1,964,000—the highest since November 2021. This split suggests initial job losses are still controlled, but people are having a harder time finding new work.
Technical Setup
USD/JPY: Support at 144.20. Resistance at 145.80. Better-than-expected data could support USD toward 147.60. Weak claims might pressure USD toward 144.00.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY at 144.50
📍 Stop-loss: 144.00 below support
🎯 Take-profit: 146.00 resistance
Friday, July 11, 2025
GDP m/m
06:00 GMT
Forecast: n/a | Previous: -0.3%
Impact: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY
UK monthly GDP data is expected to show a -0.3% contraction month-on-month, a big drop from March's 0.2% growth. This would be the sharpest monthly decline since October 2023, reflecting multiple headwinds including higher energy costs, increased National Insurance contributions, and trade policy uncertainties. The services sector, which drives UK economic activity, fell 0.4% in April after previous strength. Manufacturing and production sectors also faced pressure, adding to overall economic weakness. A worse-than-expected reading could fuel speculation about more Bank of England easing.
Technical Setup
GBP/USD: Support at 1.3580 (recent lows). Resistance at 1.3770. Weak GDP could pressure GBP toward 1.3600 or lower. Better-than-expected data might support recovery toward 1.3780.
Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on weak GDP below 1.3610
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3680 above resistance
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3450 support
Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
12:30 GMT
Employment Change - (Forecast: n/a | Previous: 8.8K)
Unemployment Rate - (Forecast: n/a | Previous: 7.0%)
Impact: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY
Canada's employment data sits at a critical point for the Canadian dollar and monetary policy expectations. The forecast of 8.8K job additions matches last month's better-than-expected result, but this follows a worrying trend of rising unemployment despite modest job creation. The unemployment rate is expected to stay elevated at 7.0%, matching the highest level since September 2016 outside pandemic years.
Technical Setup
USD/CAD: Currently trading around 1.3600, having declined from recent highs near 1.3700. Key support at 1.3555. Immediate resistance at 1.3800 (psychological level). The pair remains in a bearish channel pattern with the 14-day RSI below 50, indicating persistent downward momentum. The 100-day EMA at 1.3895 represents major resistance.
Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on weak Canadian data above 1.3620
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3570 below current support
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3700 psychological resistance
Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.