Forex Weekly Outlook: Key Events July 28 – Aug 1 2025

Ready to make the most of your forex trades next week? You’re in the right place. From July 28 to August 1, the markets are set for a packed schedule of red-flag economic events — all capable of shaking up major currency pairs and creating real potential for savvy, well-timed trades.

Let’s break down what’s on deck each day, spotlight the biggest market movers, and map out practical trading ideas so you can step into August positioned for success.

 

Monday, July 28, 2025

GBP CBI Realized Sales

10:00 GMT

Forecast: –28 | Previous: –46
Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

The latest CBI survey hints at a smaller retail slump. Going from –46 to –28 still means shoppers are cautious, but the slide isn’t as steep. Sterling might catch a short-lived bid if stores start rebuilding stock, though high prices and squeezed household budgets keep a real rebound on ice.

Technical Setup
GBP/USD (~1.3440)
Resistance: 1.3520 (100-period SMA), 1.3550 (200-period SMA)
Support: 1.3370 (July low)
Momentum: RSI on 4-hour chart sits at 38, indicating bearish momentum but nearing oversold territory

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell GBP/USD on rallies into 1.3470–1.3520
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3540 (above 200-period SMA)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3340 (next key support)

 

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

USD JOLTS Job Openings

14:00 GMT

Forecast: 7.49M | Previous: 7.77M
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

JOLTS shows how many jobs sit open in the U.S. labor market. Even a dip to 7.49 million tells us hiring demand stays strong, backing the Fed’s view that modest rate cuts won’t break the economy. A stubbornly high figure usually props up the dollar, especially against slower-growth currencies.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY (~147.65)
Resistance: 147.94 (short-term swing high), 149.17 (April high)
Support: 145.97 (55-day EMA), 145.50 (psychological)
Momentum: MACD histogram fading slightly, but above zero — neutral-bullish bias

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on dips to 145.97
📍 Stop-loss: 145.50
🎯 Take-profit: 149.17

 

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

AUD CPI q/q, y/y & Trimmed Mean CPI

01:30 GMT

Forecast: 0.8%/2.1%/0.7% | Previous: 0.9%/2.1%/0.7%
Impact: AUD/USD, EUR/AUD

Down in Australia, inflation keeps running hotter than the RBA’s comfort zone. If quarterly CPI cools, traders may dump Aussie longs; if core numbers stay sticky, talk of more hikes comes straight back. Keep an eye on the gap between the headline and trimmed mean—it says whether price pressure is broad or just a few spikes.

Technical Setup
AUD/USD (~0.6570)
Resistance: 0.6620 (recent swing high), 0.6713 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of 2024 sell-off)
Support: 0.6550 (psychological), 0.6510 (April low)
Momentum: RSI near 52 on daily chart, reflecting balanced buying and selling pressure

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy AUD/USD on pullback to 0.6550
📍 Stop-loss: 0.6525
🎯 Take-profit: 0.6600

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

12:15 GMT

Forecast: 82K | Previous: –33K
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

ADP payrolls land two days before non-farm payrolls and set the tone. A bounce to 82K would show the jobs wobble was brief and give the dollar a lift, particularly if wages stay firm.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY (~147.50)
Resistance: 149.00 (round number), 148.50 (May high)
Support: 147.00 (recent swing low), 145.85 (50-bar SMA on 4H)

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on a hold above 147.00
📍 Stop-loss: 146.70
🎯 Take-profit: 148.00

USD Advance GDP q/q

12:30 GMT

Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: –0.5%
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, DXY

Advance U.S. GDP is the widest snapshot of growth. Clocking 2.4% after a negative first quarter would tell the Fed the setback was a blip, strengthening the greenback across the board.

Technical Setup
DXY (~97.80)
Resistance: 98.20 (May peak), 98.60 (year-to-date high)
Support: 96.60 (psychological)
Momentum: Stochastic oscillator crossing higher from oversold levels

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy DXY on a break above 97.20
📍 Stop-loss: 97.00
🎯 Take-profit: 98.20

BOC Policy Decision, Press Conference & Overnight Rate

13:45 & 14:30 GMT

Forecast: 2.75% | Previous: 2.75%
Impact: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD

The Bank of Canada’s rate-cut pause is all about shaky trade prospects. Dovish talk should drag the loonie lower, while any hawkish surprise could spark a quick squeeze higher.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD (~1.3700)
Resistance: 1.3773 (April high), 1.3800 (round number)
Support: 1.3578

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CAD on rallies to 1.3700–1.3730
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3770
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3620

Fed Funds Rate, FOMC Statement & Press Conference

18:00/18:30 GMT

Forecast: 4.50% | Previous: 4.50%
Impact: All USD pairs

The Fed is on hold at 4.25 – 4.50%. Powell’s tone matters more than the decision: dovish hints could bruise the dollar; hawkish reminders about sticky inflation could boost it. Traders will trade the nuance.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD at ~1.1744
Resistance: 1.1788 (high of July 24) and 1.1800 (round number)
Support: 1.1720 (intraday low on July 25) and 1.1700 (psychological)
Momentum: RSI (14) ≈ 48, neutral; Bollinger Bands narrowing, suggesting an imminent breakout

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on break below 1.1720
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1745 (just above minor resistance)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1700 (next major support)

 

Thursday, July 31, 2025

CNY Manufacturing PMI

01:30 GMT

Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.7
Impact: USD/CNY, AUD/USD, commodity currencies

China’s factory PMI stuck below 50 shows industry cooling. A surprise rise would boost risk plays like AUD and NZD, while a deeper dip pushes money toward USD and JPY safety.

Technical Setup
USD/CNY (~7.20)
Resistance: 7.18 (recent high)
Support: 7.14 (psychological)
Momentum: Bollinger Bands contracting — imminent breakout

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell USD/CNY on rally to 7.17
📍 Stop-loss: 7.18
🎯 Take-profit: 7.15

JPY BOJ Policy Rate & Communication

Tentative

Forecast: <0.50% | Previous: <0.50%
Impact: All JPY pairs

The BoJ probably stays ultra-loose, but even a whiff of future tightening can make the yen jump in a hurry.

Technical Setup
EUR/JPY (~158.50)
Resistance: 173.50 (round number), 173.57 (March high)
Support: 171.50 (psychological)

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/JPY on failure near 174.00
📍 Stop-loss: 173.66
🎯 Take-profit: 172.20

US Core PCE Price Index m/m

12:30 GMT

Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: All USD pairs

Core PCE sits at the heart of Fed thinking. Anything above 0.3% firms the dollar and pressures low-yield currencies.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD (~1.1730)
Resistance: 1.1780 (recent high)
Support: 1.1700 (round number), 1.1680 (50-bar MA on 4H)

Trading Idea
🎯 Sell EUR/USD on break below 1.1700
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1730
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1650

CAD GDP m/m, US Employment Cost Index & Unemployment Claims

12:30 GMT

Forecast: -0.1%/0.8%/222K | Previous: -0.1%/0.9%/217K
Impact: USD/CAD, USD pairs

Canada’s flat GDP pairs with U.S. labor-cost and claims data at the same release time. A weak Canadian number helps USD/CAD climb; a beat caps it. Rising U.S. costs or claims can lean the other way and fade the move.

Technical Setup
USD/CAD at ~1.3700
Resistance: 1.3772 (high of July 25) and 1.3770 (round number)
Support: 1.3575 (low of July 23) and 1.3570 (psychological)
Momentum: MACD histogram above zero but contracting, signaling waning bullish momentum

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/CAD on dip to 1.3660
📍 Stop-loss: 1.3635 (below swing low)
🎯 Take-profit: 1.3725 (recent high)

 

Friday, August 1, 2025

US Average Hourly Earnings, NFP & Unemployment Rate

12:30 GMT

Forecast: 0.3%/108K/4.2% | Previous: 0.2%/147K/4.1%
Impact: All USD pairs

July’s U.S. jobs report should show hiring slowing to 108K with unemployment edging up. Strong wage growth delays Fed cuts; weak wages open the door to a softer dollar.

Technical Setup
EUR/USD (~1.1735)
Resistance: 1.1750–1.1788 (multi-touch zone)
Support: 1.17020 (range floor)
Momentum: 50-day SMA rising, RSI ~58 — bullish but overbought risk

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy EUR/USD on pullback to 1.1680
📍 Stop-loss: 1.1650
🎯 Take-profit: 1.1780–1.1800

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

14:00 GMT

Forecast: 49.5 | Previous: 49.0
Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

A small uptick in ISM manufacturing—from 49.0 to 49.5—would hint at stabilization and could give the dollar a late-week tailwind, especially if input prices or hiring components look upbeat.

Technical Setup
USD/JPY (~147.20)
Resistance: 147.90 (recent high), 149.15 (year-to-date peak)
Support: 145.70 (range floor), 145.00 (psychological)
Momentum: MACD crossing above signal line on 4H chart

Trading Idea
🎯 Buy USD/JPY on break above 147.90
📍 Stop-loss: 147.00
🎯 Take-profit: 149.15

 

Note: All times are GMT. Trade ideas are for educational purposes; monitor price action for confirmation before entry.