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Updated: February 15, 2026

A split-liquidity start — US holiday, FOMC minutes, UK inflation, and flash PMIs

Reading Time: 3min
A split-liquidity start — US holiday, FOMC minutes, UK inflation, and flash PMIs
Christine Richards
Written byChristine Richards
Victor Jacobson
Reviewed byVictor Jacobson
Margarita Spanou
Fact Checked byMargarita Spanou

The week opens with a market-structure twist: Monday is a US holiday (Presidents’ Day), which often thins liquidity and increases the odds of false breaks in USD pairs and gold. The real macro weight arrives midweek and into Friday: FOMC minutes, UK CPI, then flash PMIs and the US PCE inflation gauge.

Times are in GMT (with CET guidance in brackets). Ideas are for education only and not investment advice.

Day-by-day catalysts

Monday, Feb 16

US: market holiday (Presidents’ Day)

Impact: thinner liquidity, higher false-break risk

Japan: Q4 GDP (first preliminary)

Time: 23:50 GMT (00:50 CET, Tuesday)

In focus: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY

Tuesday, Feb 17

A positioning day for many desks: liquidity normalizes after the holiday and the market starts “loading” for Wednesday and Friday. Mark last week’s swing zones — they tend to be retested around the main releases.

Wednesday, Feb 18

UK: CPI (January)

Time: 07:00 GMT (08:00 CET)

In focus: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

US: FOMC minutes

Time: 19:00 GMT (20:00 CET)

In focus: USD, gold, yields

Minutes often move markets via nuance: confidence on disinflation, labor-market sensitivity, and what would trigger a tone shift. Two-step reactions are common — a headline impulse, then a second move as details get priced.

Thursday, Feb 19

Digest day: do Wednesday’s breaks hold, or does price fade back into range? Clean retests often show up here.

Friday, Feb 20 — the activity temperature check

Flash PMIs (February): France/Germany/eurozone/UK and more

Time (guides): 08:15–09:30 GMT (09:15–10:30 CET)

In focus: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, risk tone

US: PCE inflation (Personal Income & Outlays)

Date: February 20 (released with the Personal Income & Outlays report)

In focus: USD, gold, rates

Three ways the week can trade

Scenario A: USD supported

Minutes lean firmer than expected and PCE/PMI price signals don’t cool.

Scenario B: USD fades

Minutes read softer and PCE/PMIs point to cooling inflation and activity.

Scenario C: Europe vs US split

UK CPI / EU PMIs surprise one way while US signals lean the other — favoring cross moves over clean major trends.

Practical notes

  • Monday is a “protect capital” day: thin liquidity can punish impatience.
  • Wednesday + Friday decide the narrative: treat them as the week’s anchor points.
  • Avoid first-tick chasing: minutes and PMIs can produce whipsaws before direction stabilizes.

Disclaimer: for information and education only; not investment advice.