It is definite now: Federal Reserve will not raise the rate

FRS building


During last week, the pair was going up, coming off slowly from the support line of the wide uptrend channel since last December. If we look to the pair movement through this channel, we can notice that movement in May was indicative (two previous movements took almost the same time) and fast movement from its upper boundary to the lower. However, the probability to break the support of the uptrend channel was quite big.

At least Federal Reserve members were helping it a lot, showing, one after another, that possibility and necessity of a soon policy tightening exists. Still market participants were more…

Federal Reserve is preparing markets for the interest rate increase



Last week the Federal Reserve members performed active campaign for changing of market expectations about interest rates. Fed Reserve representatives referred that market volatility calmed down in comparison with the situation in the beginning of the year, while more economic indicators came to the normal levels. Moreover, April FOMC minutes have reflected either that the Committee is seriously considering the rates increase in June. We would like to mention that previous data, possessed by the Committee, were much worse than those noticed during last weeks. Simultaneously, Federal Reserve is observing foreign financial markets cautiously watching out for volatility.

They do not say more…

Dollar is looking for the bottom



American dollar continues to pull back and now this looks like capitulation. Its decrease identified against most assets, while USD index lost around 1.2% for more than last 24 hours, reaching the main support levels. The bulls may upset by the fact that coming news is not making favor for American currency. Advance GDP, released yesterday, was worse than expected. The first three months got 0.5% yoy against expectations 0.7% yoy. This is hardly visible 0.1% in usual for us estimation. Contrary to this growth of European economy reached 0.6% as released by Eurostat today. Though, the expected growth was only more…

Euro bounced and returned back



Yesterday, during Draghi’s speech, common currency experienced higher volatility than usual. Big volatility on a market is a common thing, unusual here was the fact that eventually common currency stooped moving at the same level where it started, and today it is trying to start declining. Active buying of the common currency was caused by the perception of the markets that ECB does not want to hurry up with the further measures and as a whole mentions positive tendency (despite of announcement of negative inflation in the following months). However, the pair, obviously, does not have enough power and reasons for more…

Market accelerated at dollar’s selling



Yesterday the pair was developing its attack during the whole day, almost reaching the area of consolidation from the beginning of April. They did not have enough reasons for firmer step. Tomorrow the pair will face another press-conference of Mr. Draghi. Last years this event creates high volatility for euro and can compete with payrolls release. The pair’s rise was supported either by Building permits from the USA. Instead of expected growth by 2% it lost 7.7% and this was the decline for the fourth month in a row. Housing starts in March increased even more – by 8.8%. Today the more…